Joey Danielson
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 235 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 112
ERA4.95
FIP4.95
K%20.4%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 7 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 3.24 | 2.73 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 7 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 3.24 | 2.74 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 56 | 254 | 67 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.17 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 56 | 254 | 67 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 15.7% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 3.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 30 | 2 | 32 | 136 | 37 | 17 | 1 | 7% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 19.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 3.74 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 60 | 37 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 12.6% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.4% | 12.6% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.95 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 102 | 432 | 97 | 54 | 10 | — | — | 22.6% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 4.46 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.4% | 12.6% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 62 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 61 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 60 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 45 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 118 | 0 | 124 | 524 | 110 | 63 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.50 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 101 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 86 | 2 | 96 | 424 | 88 | 60 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 179 | 4 | 200 | 880 | 184 | 125 | 12 | 2% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Danielson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 20.4% | 12.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.88 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 206 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 90 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 89 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 88 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 88 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .305 | 7.93 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.91 | 3.54 | 153 | 88 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .273 | 2.80 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -1.91 | 2.42 | 302 | 87 |
| Merrick Baldo R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.57 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 38 | -0.98 | 2.69 | 154 | 87 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.11 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.66 | 11.8% | -2.3% | 55 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 172 | 87 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 87 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.39 | 21.5% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.55 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 79 | +0.16 | 3.96 | 242 | 86 |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 86 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 86 |
| Armando Rivero R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 86 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.88 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 167 | +0.74 | 3.34 | 334 | 86 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 86 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.85 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .330 | 4.04 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 96 | +0.19 | 2.54 | 214 | 85 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 85 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 85 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 20.9% | 12.2% | 1.15 | 4.89 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |