Joey Danielson — OGILVIE

Joey Danielson P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%20.4%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL5040

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	7	0	8	34	6	3	0	0%	1.2	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	3.24	2.73	—
2024	23	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	7	0	8	34	6	3	0	0%	1.2	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	3.24	2.73	—
2024	23	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	7	0	8	34	6	3	0	0%	1.2	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	3.24	2.74	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	56	254	67	27	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.6%	4.34	4.29	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	56	254	67	27	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.6%	4.34	4.29	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	56	254	67	27	6	0%	1.1	26.4%	10.6%	15.7%	2.4%	4.34	3.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	45	3	53	220	56	24	2	7%	1.2	20.2%	12.3%	7.8%	1.1%	3.59	3.56	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	45	3	53	220	56	24	2	7%	1.2	20.2%	12.3%	7.8%	1.1%	3.59	3.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	TEX	20	1	22	87	25	15	0	5%	1.1	28.7%	17.2%	11.5%	0.0%	1.25	2.86	—
2026	25	AA RAW	TEX	25	2	31	133	31	9	2	8%	1.2	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	1.5%	5.23	2.81	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.0%	8.4%	2.9%	4.89	4.89	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	59	245	61	27	3	—	—	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	1.1%	3.72	3.69	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TEX	67	0	70	296	62	34	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.7%	9.2%	2.9%	4.82	4.81	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	66	0	69	291	61	34	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.81	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	64	0	67	282	60	33	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	3.1%	4.83	4.87	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	61	0	64	270	56	32	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	3.2%	4.92	4.99	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	31	131	27	15	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.7%	9.2%	2.9%	4.82	4.81	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	42	0	44	186	39	21	6	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.81	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	49	0	51	215	45	25	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	3.1%	4.83	4.87	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	50	0	52	220	46	26	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	3.2%	4.92	4.99	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	157	87	23	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.85	4.50	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	98	26	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.85	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		101	3	117	508	103	60	9	3%	1.2	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	1.8%	3.92	3.87	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	5	200	868	176	103	15	3%	1.2	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	1.8%	3.92	3.87	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Danielson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	20.4%	12.0%	2.9%	—	4.83	21.0%	9.4%	206	-0.06	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	92
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	89
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	88
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	87
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	87
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	87
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	87
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	86
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	86
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	86
Pat Light R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.63	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.53	4.10	172	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	86
Hunter Dula R 2023 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	20.1%	12.1%	3.5%	.301	4.06	19.8%	10.2%	37	-0.80	3.91	132	86
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	86
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	20.9%	11.7%	1.18	4.85
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10