Jonathan Todd

P Vancouver Canadians

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ATOR	3	3	0.00	0.10	54.5%	9.1%	—	K 54.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP -0.35
2025	23	A+TOR	32	45	4.76	4.11	29.6%	10.1%	—	K 22.8% · BB 11.6% · FIP 5.86
2026	24	MIX2 levels	40	61	4.75	5.09	22.4%	15.4%	—	K 17.5% · BB 17.5% · FIP 6.07
2027PROJ	25	MLBTOR	67	70	5.69	5.69	19.2%	15.3%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBTOR	29	30	5.53	5.51	20.1%	14.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTOR	41	43	5.45	5.46	20.3%	14.3%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsNick Ernst (age 25) · Kevin Kopps (age 25) · Josh Harlow (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.69

FIP5.69

K%19.2%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%3.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	3	0	3	11	6	1	0	0%	1.0	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.35	—
2024	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	3	0	3	11	6	1	0	0%	1.0	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.35	—
2024	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	3	0	3	11	6	1	0	0%	1.0	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	32	0	45	199	59	20	8	0%	1.4	22.8%	11.6%	11.3%	5.9%	4.76	5.86	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	32	0	45	199	59	20	8	0%	1.4	22.8%	11.6%	11.3%	5.9%	4.76	5.86	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	32	0	45	199	59	20	8	0%	1.4	29.6%	10.1%	19.6%	4.0%	4.76	4.11	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	61	272	61	42	9	0%	1.5	17.5%	17.5%	0.0%	4.1%	4.75	6.07	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	61	272	61	42	9	0%	1.5	17.5%	17.5%	0.0%	4.1%	4.75	6.07	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	61	272	61	42	9	0%	1.5	22.4%	15.4%	7.0%	3.3%	4.75	5.09	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TOR	67	0	70	296	57	45	10	0%	1.0	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	3.4%	5.69	5.69	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	67	0	70	296	59	43	10	0%	1.0	20.1%	14.7%	5.4%	3.4%	5.53	5.51	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	66	0	69	291	59	42	10	0%	1.0	20.3%	14.3%	6.0%	3.4%	5.45	5.46	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	67	282	57	40	10	0%	1.0	20.3%	14.2%	6.1%	3.5%	5.45	5.48	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	TOR	61	0	64	270	54	39	10	0%	1.0	20.2%	14.3%	5.8%	3.6%	5.52	5.59	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	29	0	30	127	25	19	4	0%	1.0	20.1%	14.7%	5.4%	3.4%	5.53	5.51	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	41	0	43	182	37	26	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	14.3%	6.0%	3.4%	5.45	5.46	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	48	0	50	211	43	30	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	14.2%	6.1%	3.5%	5.45	5.48	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	TOR	50	0	52	220	44	31	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	14.3%	5.8%	3.6%	5.52	5.59	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	176	742	150	107	26	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.4%	5.9%	3.5%	5.48	5.13	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	122	30	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.4%	5.9%	3.5%	5.48	5.13	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		75	0	109	482	99	72	23	0%	1.5	20.6%	14.9%	5.7%	4.7%	4.62	5.84	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	0	200	884	182	131	42	0%	1.5	20.6%	14.9%	5.7%	4.7%	4.62	5.84	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Todd (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.69	19.2%	15.3%	3.4%	—	5.48	20.2%	5.8%	206	-0.21	—	—	—
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	89
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	88
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	88
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	87
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	86
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	85
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	85
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	84
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	84
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	84
Leon Hunter Jr. R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	25	SU	5.45	20.0%	14.4%	4.0%	.287	4.33	25.5%	13.6%	58	-1.12	1.94	183	83
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	83
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	83
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.56	16.9%	9.7%	85	-1.57	3.20	213	83
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	83
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	83
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	20.0%	14.6%	1.34	5.53
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*