Xavier Kolhosser

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 194 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	14	4	26	4.21	3.26	28.8%	12.6%	—	K 17.2% · BB 16.7% · FIP 3.76
2026	23	MIX2 levels	27	1	51	5.86	3.48	33.3%	13.6%	—	K 25.2% · BB 15.8% · FIP 4.80
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	27	0	28	4.98	4.98	24.2%	14.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIN	19	0	20	4.80	4.73	24.5%	13.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIN	30	0	31	4.71	4.67	24.6%	12.8%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsTodd Wellemeyer (age 24) · Colin McKee (age 24) · CJ Weins (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%24.2%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	26	111	32	14	2	29%	1.8	17.2%	16.7%	0.6%	0.0%	4.21	3.76	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	26	111	32	14	2	29%	1.8	17.2%	16.7%	0.6%	0.0%	4.21	3.76	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	4	26	111	32	14	2	29%	1.8	28.8%	12.6%	16.2%	1.8%	4.21	3.26	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	51	228	76	31	6	4%	1.9	25.2%	15.8%	9.5%	3.3%	5.86	4.80	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	51	228	76	31	6	4%	1.9	25.2%	15.8%	9.5%	3.3%	5.86	4.80	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	51	228	76	31	6	4%	1.9	33.3%	13.6%	19.7%	2.6%	5.86	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	27	0	28	118	29	18	4	0%	1.0	24.2%	14.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.98	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	44	0	46	195	48	26	6	0%	1.1	24.5%	13.1%	11.4%	3.0%	4.80	4.73	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	44	0	46	195	48	25	6	0%	1.1	24.6%	12.8%	11.8%	3.0%	4.71	4.67	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	19	0	20	84	21	11	3	0%	1.1	24.5%	13.1%	11.4%	3.0%	4.80	4.73	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	30	0	31	131	32	17	4	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.8%	11.8%	3.0%	4.71	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	51	213	53	28	6	0%	1.1	24.6%	12.9%	11.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.31	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	210	111	24	0%	1.1	24.6%	12.9%	11.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		41	5	76	339	77	54	8	12%	1.9	22.6%	16.1%	6.5%	2.2%	5.31	4.46	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	13	200	888	201	143	20	12%	1.9	22.6%	16.1%	6.5%	2.2%	5.31	4.46	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xavier Kolhosser (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	24.2%	14.9%	3.0%	—	4.70	24.6%	11.6%	92	-0.28	—	—	—
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	90
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	89
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	88
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	86
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	86
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	86
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	86
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	86
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	85
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	85
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Isaac Stebens R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	24.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.328	4.14	21.1%	5.6%	50	+0.01	4.13	102	84
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	84
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	84
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	40	24.5%	13.4%	1.17	4.81
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*