Jake Jekielek
P
Hickory Crawdads
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151141vR 132
ERA5.88
FIP5.88
K%15.3%
BB%17.3%
K-BB%-2.0%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.25 | 3.57 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.25 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 34 | 0 | 44 | 210 | 45 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.9% | 16.9% | -1.0% | 0.6% | 5.15 | 4.21 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 34 | 0 | 44 | 210 | 45 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.4% | 14.3% | 7.1% | 0.5% | 5.15 | 3.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 0 | 29 | 125 | 22 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 13.0% | 20.8% | -7.7% | 1.0% | 4.66 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 34 | 38 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 17.3% | -2.0% | 2.7% | 5.88 | 5.88 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.3% | 17.3% | -2.0% | 2.7% | 5.88 | 5.88 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 81 | 346 | 56 | 60 | 7 | — | — | 16.1% | 17.4% | -1.3% | 2.0% | 5.44 | 5.64 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 39 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 15.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 5.58 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 41 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.35 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 42 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 13.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 15.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 5.58 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.35 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 33 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 13.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 0 | 102 | 431 | 77 | 62 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 14.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 5.36 | 4.90 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 121 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 14.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 5.36 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 56 | 0 | 74 | 344 | 51 | 62 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.7% | 18.1% | -3.4% | 0.7% | 5.23 | 4.56 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 0 | 200 | 930 | 137 | 169 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.7% | 18.1% | -3.4% | 0.7% | 5.23 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Jekielek (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.88 | 15.3% | 17.3% | 2.7% | — | 5.31 | 17.8% | 3.4% | 162 | -0.57 | — | — | — |
| Luis Germán R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.67 | 16.0% | 19.6% | 2.6% | .305 | 8.13 | 12.2% | -10.4% | 19 | +2.46 | 5.21 | 115 | 90 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.27 | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2.4% | .237 | 5.45 | 13.6% | -1.7% | 68 | +0.18 | 5.27 | 124 | 89 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 88 |
| Alec Kenilvort R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.05 | 15.1% | 17.0% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.95 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 85 | -2.10 | 2.89 | 109 | 87 |
| Hunter Mann R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.68 | 18.4% | 18.5% | 3.3% | .303 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 49 | -1.41 | 3.01 | 135 | 87 |
| Roberto Espinosa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.02 | 18.9% | 18.6% | 2.1% | .273 | 4.46 | 14.8% | 2.2% | 77 | -0.56 | 4.32 | 117 | 87 |
| Jacob Morris R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.72 | 18.0% | 19.6% | 3.0% | .218 | 4.72 | 18.7% | -2.4% | 46 | -1.00 | 4.72 | 102 | 86 |
| Noah Takacs R 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.19 | 14.5% | 17.0% | 3.9% | .248 | 5.15 | 12.7% | -2.0% | 33 | -1.04 | 5.15 | 122 | 85 |
| Jonathan Teaney R 2026 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.06 | 16.4% | 15.7% | 4.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 108 | 85 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2028 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 85 |
| Cole Hillier R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 16.9% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.61 | 18.4% | 4.4% | 95 | -0.08 | 3.72 | 153 | 85 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2027 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 85 |
| Aroni Nina R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 16.8% | 20.5% | 1.3% | .312 | 3.06 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 64 | -1.94 | 2.68 | 115 | 85 |
| Matt De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.72 | 14.1% | 16.5% | 1.3% | .304 | 4.53 | 17.4% | 2.2% | 81 | -0.19 | 4.47 | 102 | 85 |
| Nicholas Regalado R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.62 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 132 | 85 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 6.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.54 | 14.0% | 23.6% | 3.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 147 | 84 |
| Austin Pettibone R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 14.6% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 142 | 84 |
| Jackson Rose R 2025 · 5.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.32 | 17.3% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .267 | 4.58 | 23.5% | 16.5% | 56 | -0.74 | 3.55 | 147 | 84 |
| Audry Lugo R 2026 · 5.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.73 | 13.7% | 16.3% | 3.1% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 113 | 84 |
| Luis Ledo R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.45 | 17.1% | 17.6% | 2.9% | .329 | 3.60 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 85 | -1.85 | 3.22 | 376 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 17.2% | 15.1% | 1.06 | 5.51 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |