Nate Garkow — OGILVIE

Nate Garkow P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 28 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

K%29.1%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%15.3%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	24	93	34	11	1	0%	1.6	27.1%	14.4%	12.7%	1.6%	1.88	3.50	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	24	93	34	11	1	0%	1.6	27.1%	14.4%	12.7%	1.6%	1.88	3.50	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	24	93	34	11	1	0%	1.6	36.6%	11.8%	24.7%	1.1%	1.88	2.18	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	54	222	86	29	3	0%	1.4	30.8%	14.7%	16.1%	1.9%	3.19	3.42	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	54	222	86	29	3	0%	1.4	30.8%	14.7%	16.1%	1.9%	3.19	3.42	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	54	222	86	29	3	0%	1.4	38.7%	13.1%	25.7%	1.4%	3.19	2.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	18	0	20	91	22	17	1	0%	1.1	19.2%	19.2%	-0.0%	1.5%	3.60	4.74	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	18	0	20	91	22	17	1	0%	1.1	19.2%	19.2%	-0.0%	1.5%	3.60	4.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	TOR	15	0	17	80	19	14	1	0%	1.2	23.8%	17.5%	6.2%	1.2%	3.63	4.00	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	TOR	3	0	3	11	3	3	0	0%	0.9	27.3%	27.3%	0.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TOR	27	0	28	119	34	16	3	0%	1.0	28.3%	13.6%	14.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.40	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	TOR	9	0	9	38	11	5	1	0%	1.0	28.3%	13.6%	14.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.40	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	37	11	5	1	0%	1.1	28.3%	13.6%	14.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.02	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	248	113	23	0%	1.1	28.3%	13.6%	14.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		72	0	98	406	111	64	7	0%	1.4	27.4%	15.6%	11.7%	1.8%	2.95	3.73	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	0	200	831	227	130	15	0%	1.4	27.4%	15.6%	11.7%	1.8%	2.95	3.73	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Garkow (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	29.1%	13.8%	2.7%	—	4.40	28.3%	14.7%	28	+0.14	—	—	—
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	86
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	85
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	81
Neil Ramírez R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	28	SU	4.66	27.1%	12.5%	4.1%	.389	4.86	29.1%	19.7%	116	+0.20	3.21	220	79
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	79
Brad Brach R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.13	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.09	2.69	410	78
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	78
Greg Holland R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	29	SU	3.21	25.4%	13.0%	1.1%	.316	3.45	26.4%	14.2%	104	+0.24	1.97	268	77
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	76
Nathanael Santiago R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	27	SU	3.66	25.5%	12.6%	2.0%	.272	2.49	19.9%	14.3%	37	-1.17	2.49	138	76
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	75
Parker Markel R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	28	SU	4.87	29.7%	16.5%	4.0%	.250	4.33	28.9%	11.6%	97	-0.54	3.18	266	75
Steven Wilson R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	26.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.217	4.57	20.8%	10.9%	119	+0.45	3.64	328	75
Jake Cousins R 2022 · 3.15 FIP	28	SU	3.15	30.9%	11.9%	2.1%	.265	3.86	30.9%	19.0%	65	+0.71	1.11	160	75
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	75
Tommy Kahnle R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	28	SU	3.46	29.2%	12.4%	2.3%	.353	2.99	35.5%	27.4%	61	-0.47	1.53	458	75
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	75
Brooks Kriske R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	27	SU	4.95	28.6%	12.1%	5.0%	.261	4.35	29.0%	16.8%	88	-0.60	3.15	246	75
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	547	74
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	28.7%	13.7%	1.09	4.30
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33