Rafael Arias — OGILVIE

Rafael Arias P FCL Yankees

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%20.8%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	13	0	15	62	21	5	1	0%	1.2	23.0%	10.1%	13.0%	1.4%	1.80	3.18	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	13	0	15	62	21	5	1	0%	1.2	23.0%	10.1%	13.0%	1.4%	1.80	3.18	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	13	0	15	62	21	5	1	0%	1.2	33.9%	8.1%	25.8%	1.6%	1.80	2.17	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	20	0	40	178	53	16	0	0%	2.0	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	0.0%	4.05	2.81	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	20	0	40	178	53	16	0	0%	2.0	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	0.0%	4.05	2.81	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	20	0	40	178	53	16	0	0%	2.0	29.8%	9.0%	20.8%	0.0%	4.05	1.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	26	0	38	172	49	19	9	0%	1.5	20.1%	13.6%	6.4%	7.3%	6.34	7.12	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	26	0	38	172	49	19	9	0%	1.5	20.1%	13.6%	6.4%	7.3%	6.34	7.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	NYY	18	0	24	116	29	15	8	0%	1.4	25.0%	12.9%	12.1%	6.9%	8.14	6.41	—
2026	22	A RAW	NYY	8	0	14	56	20	4	1	0%	1.8	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	1.8%	3.21	1.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYY	44	0	46	195	43	20	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.56	4.48	+0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	45	0	48	201	45	19	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	2.8%	4.43	4.34	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	46	0	48	203	47	19	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.26	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	46	0	48	203	47	19	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	2.8%	4.27	4.24	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	45	0	47	200	46	19	6	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	2.8%	4.27	4.28	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYY	22	0	23	97	21	10	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.56	4.48	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	31	0	33	139	31	13	4	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	2.8%	4.43	4.34	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	37	0	39	165	38	15	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.26	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	40	0	42	177	41	16	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	2.8%	4.27	4.24	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	41	0	43	182	42	17	5	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	2.8%	4.27	4.28	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	0	180	759	173	72	21	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	2.8%	4.35	3.92	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	80	23	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	2.8%	4.35	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		59	0	93	412	85	50	13	0%	1.6	20.6%	12.1%	8.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.67	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	0	200	883	182	107	29	0%	1.6	20.6%	12.1%	8.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.67	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.8%	11.3%	2.8%	—	4.36	22.4%	12.7%	142	-0.35	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	93
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	93
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	92
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	91
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	91
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	90
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	90
Matt Frawley R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	19.5%	10.0%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.25	139	90
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	90
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	89
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	89
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	89
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	88
Will Kincanon R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.2%	11.5%	1.6%	.284	3.77	22.2%	10.0%	58	+0.02	3.75	122	88
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	88
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	88
Matt Walker R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.340	4.58	18.0%	6.7%	74	-0.10	2.42	211	88
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	88

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	22.4%	9.8%	1.09	4.42
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93