Rafael Arias
P
FCL Yankees
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
K%20.8%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 13 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 1.0% | 1.80 | 2.97 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 13 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.9% | 8.1% | 25.8% | 1.6% | 1.80 | 2.17 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | 20 | 0 | 40 | 178 | 53 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 4.05 | 2.81 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | 20 | 0 | 40 | 178 | 53 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 29.8% | 9.0% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 4.05 | 1.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 16 | 0 | 22 | 105 | 26 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.8% | 17.9% | -1.0% | 10.7% | 8.72 | 9.79 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYY | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 39 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.61 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 66 | 293 | 65 | 35 | 13 | — | — | 22.2% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 4.6% | 5.95 | 6.31 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 171 | 0 | 180 | 759 | 173 | 69 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.87 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 77 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 77 | 345 | 68 | 45 | 12 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 4.97 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 0 | 200 | 900 | 177 | 117 | 31 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rafael Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.30 | 22.4% | 13.1% | 142 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 94 |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 94 |
| Luke Bell R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 93 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 91 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 90 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | .330 | 4.23 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.34 | 3.09 | 195 | 90 |
| Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.21 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27 | 139 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 90 |
| Brett Standlee R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .322 | 4.33 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.33 | 4.00 | 128 | 90 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .350 | 3.78 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.38 | 2.79 | 164 | 89 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.96 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 4.2% | .310 | 5.37 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.41 | 4.77 | 126 | 89 |
| Shane Broyles R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 89 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .262 | 5.28 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 79 | +1.65 | 3.63 | 134 | 89 |
| Kyle Marman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 88 |
| Jose Geraldo R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.95 | 18.9% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .337 | 4.41 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 49 | +0.46 | 3.13 | 140 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 88 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.50 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.98 | 2.65 | 304 | 88 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .256 | 2.90 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 42 | -1.59 | 2.90 | 119 | 88 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 88 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 47 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 1.09 | 4.36 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |