Jefferson Lopez

P DSL Pirates Gold

Age 21 RHP ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	ROKDSL Pirates G…	15	3	27	7.57	3.03	14.7%	9.3%	—	K 10.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.73
2027PROJ	21	MLB—	15	0	16	4.87	4.87	18.8%	11.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLB—	12	0	13	4.67	4.57	20.5%	10.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJosnier Parra (age 21) · Joangel Gonzalez (age 20) · Todd Peterson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%18.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	15	3	27	129	19	12	0	20%	1.8	10.0%	11.6%	-1.6%	0.0%	7.57	3.73	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	15	3	27	129	19	12	0	20%	1.8	10.0%	11.6%	-1.6%	0.0%	7.57	3.73	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	15	3	27	129	19	12	0	20%	1.8	14.7%	9.3%	5.4%	0.0%	7.57	3.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	—	15	0	16	68	13	7	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.0%	7.9%	2.9%	4.87	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	—	25	0	26	109	22	11	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.0%	10.5%	2.8%	4.67	4.57	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	—	12	0	13	55	11	5	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.0%	10.5%	2.8%	4.67	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	11	5	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.0%	10.5%	2.8%	4.67	4.19	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	79	32	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.0%	10.5%	2.8%	4.67	4.19	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		15	3	27	129	13	15	0	20%	1.8	10.0%	11.6%	-1.6%	0.0%	7.57	3.73	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	22	200	944	95	110	0	20%	1.8	10.0%	11.6%	-1.6%	0.0%	7.57	3.73	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jefferson Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	18.8%	11.0%	2.9%	—	4.57	20.5%	10.5%	26	-0.30	—	—	—
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	86
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	86
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	86
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	85
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	85
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	84
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	84
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	84
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	83
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	83
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	82
Dan Wheeler R 2000 · 3.82 FIP	22	SW	3.82	15.3%	8.1%	1.8%	.325	4.16	15.7%	9.7%	69	+0.34	2.77	641	82
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	82
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	82
Francisco Moreno R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	21	SU	4.36	14.9%	11.5%	1.9%	.297	6.32	9.9%	-2.0%	84	+1.96	3.88	162	82
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	82
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	82
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	82
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	82
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	82