Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 7 | 0 | 14 | 50 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 32.6% | 7.1% | 25.5% | 0.0% | 0.66 | 1.25 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 7 | 0 | 14 | 50 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 44.0% | 6.0% | 38.0% | 0.0% | 0.66 | 0.54 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 51 | 207 | 67 | 29 | 2 | 3% | 1.5 | 24.5% | 16.3% | 8.2% | 0.8% | 2.82 | 3.54 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 51 | 207 | 67 | 29 | 2 | 3% | 1.5 | 32.4% | 14.0% | 18.4% | 1.0% | 2.82 | 2.69 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 28 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 3.84 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 85 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 1 | 65 | 257 | 67 | 37 | 2 | 2% | 1.6 | 26.0% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 0.6% | 2.37 | 3.09 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 124 | 3 | 200 | 795 | 207 | 115 | 5 | 2% | 1.6 | 26.0% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 0.6% | 2.37 | 3.09 | +5.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Gomez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.22 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 27 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 89 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.81 | 20.9% | 6.8% | 52 | -0.29 | 3.12 | 161 | 86 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.21 | 3.54 | 146 | 85 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 85 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 85 |
| Kade Bragg L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 84 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 84 |
| Dale Stanavich L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 25.2% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .365 | 4.88 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 137 | +1.74 | 3.14 | 167 | 84 |
| Ty Damron L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 24.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .358 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 134 | +0.37 | 3.22 | 346 | 83 |
| Brendon Little L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.14 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 187 | +0.45 | 2.63 | 478 | 83 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 83 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 83 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .316 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.21 | 3.49 | 311 | 83 |
| Jared Tobey L 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 83 |
| Darien Núñez L 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 83 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 82 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 82 |
| Geoffrey Gilbert L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.52 | 26.4% | 13.1% | 1.8% | .266 | 7.33 | 19.6% | 4.6% | 16 | +3.81 | 3.52 | 101 | 82 |
| Hayden Harris L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.23 | 29.1% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.21 | 30.2% | 16.2% | 129 | -0.02 | 1.86 | 180 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 1.03 | 4.30 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |