Yoesmerli Beltre

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Padres Go…	6	8	5.62	5.22	12.2%	22.0%	—	K 12.2% · BB 22.0% · FIP 4.85
2025	19	ROKDSL Padres Go…	19	22	1.66	2.08	27.7%	10.6%	—	K 18.8% · BB 13.3% · FIP 3.20
2026	20	MIX2 levels	32	42	4.75	4.20	21.1%	10.8%	—	K 15.0% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.38
2027PROJ	21	MLBSD	20	21	5.18	5.18	18.5%	12.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSD	18	19	4.93	4.82	20.2%	11.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsAustin Mason (age 21) · Mike Morrison (age 22) · Luis Alvarado (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%18.5%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%5.9%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	6	0	8	41	5	9	0	0%	1.3	12.2%	22.0%	-9.8%	0.0%	5.62	4.85	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	6	0	8	41	5	9	0	0%	1.3	12.2%	22.0%	-9.8%	0.0%	5.62	4.85	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	6	0	8	41	5	9	0	0%	1.3	12.2%	22.0%	-9.8%	0.0%	5.62	5.22	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	19	0	22	94	26	10	0	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.3%	5.5%	0.0%	1.66	3.20	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	19	0	22	94	26	10	0	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.3%	5.5%	0.0%	1.66	3.20	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	19	0	22	94	26	10	0	0%	1.1	27.7%	10.6%	17.0%	0.0%	1.66	2.08	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	42	194	41	21	5	0%	1.3	15.0%	13.2%	1.8%	3.4%	4.75	5.38	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	42	194	41	21	5	0%	1.3	15.0%	13.2%	1.8%	3.4%	4.75	5.38	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	42	194	41	21	5	0%	1.3	21.1%	10.8%	10.3%	2.6%	4.75	4.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SD	20	0	21	89	16	11	3	0%	1.1	18.5%	12.6%	5.9%	3.0%	5.18	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	38	0	39	166	34	19	5	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.2%	9.1%	3.0%	4.93	4.82	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	18	0	19	80	16	9	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.2%	9.1%	3.0%	4.93	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	82	17	9	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.2%	9.1%	3.0%	4.93	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	93	21	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.2%	9.1%	3.0%	4.93	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		57	0	71	329	52	47	7	0%	1.3	15.7%	14.3%	1.4%	2.0%	3.91	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	0	200	922	145	132	19	0%	1.3	15.7%	14.3%	1.4%	2.0%	3.91	4.69	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yoesmerli Beltre (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	18.5%	12.6%	3.0%	—	4.82	20.2%	9.1%	39	-0.36	—	—	—
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	92
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	90
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	90
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	90
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	89
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	89
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	88
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Luke Stofel R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	17.6%	12.4%	2.0%	.328	4.42	14.0%	1.8%	147	+0.16	4.26	188	88
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	88
Randy Messenger R 2005 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	16.3%	12.9%	2.8%	.281	3.93	13.8%	7.1%	137	-0.97	3.56	174	88
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	525	88
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	87
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	476	87
Jason García R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	22	SU	4.57	16.8%	12.5%	2.4%	.241	4.37	13.2%	1.2%	218	-0.20	4.16	356	87
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	86
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	86
Aneudy Duarte R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	20	SU	4.79	17.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	102	86
Michael Hobbs R 2022 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.9%	2.3%	.232	4.48	20.1%	3.9%	158	-0.06	4.14	184	86
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	19.6%	11.6%	1.16	5.02
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26