Varis Villarreal

Varis Villarreal P DSL NYY Yankees

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 157 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%20.6%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	17	0	22	89	20	11	3	0%	1.3	15.3%	15.4%	-0.2%	2.8%	4.43	5.33	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	17	0	22	89	20	11	3	0%	1.3	15.3%	15.4%	-0.2%	2.8%	4.43	5.33	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	17	0	22	89	20	11	3	0%	1.3	22.5%	12.4%	10.1%	3.4%	4.43	4.53	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	16	0	33	152	37	9	3	0%	2.0	16.6%	7.4%	9.2%	2.5%	6.06	4.03	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	16	0	33	152	37	9	3	0%	2.0	16.6%	7.4%	9.2%	2.5%	6.06	4.03	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	16	0	33	152	37	9	3	0%	2.0	24.3%	5.9%	18.4%	2.0%	6.06	2.86	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	17	0	17	82	20	12	3	0%	1.0	16.6%	18.3%	-1.7%	5.1%	6.23	6.83	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	17	0	17	82	20	12	3	0%	1.0	16.6%	18.3%	-1.7%	5.1%	6.23	6.83	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	17	0	17	82	20	12	3	0%	1.0	24.4%	14.6%	9.8%	3.7%	6.23	5.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	NYY	12	0	13	55	11	7	2	0%	1.1	20.6%	12.4%	8.2%	3.0%	4.98	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	29	0	30	129	28	14	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.0%	4.79	4.70	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	14	0	15	63	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.0%	4.79	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.0%	4.79	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	93	27	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.0%	4.79	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		50	0	72	323	52	40	11	0%	1.4	16.2%	12.4%	3.8%	3.3%	5.60	5.10	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	0	200	893	145	111	29	0%	1.4	16.2%	12.4%	3.8%	3.3%	5.60	5.10	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Varis Villarreal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	20.6%	12.4%	3.0%	—	4.70	21.6%	10.5%	30	-0.28	—	—	—
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	92
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	90
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	90
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	89
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	88
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	87
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	87
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	87
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	87
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	87
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	86
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	86
Scott Williams R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	20.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.256	2.89	18.5%	11.2%	42	-1.88	2.89	119	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	4.99	19.0%	6.9%	176	+0.67	4.32	220	85
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	476	85
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	85