Carlos Garcia — OGILVIE

Carlos GarciaC DSL Blue Jays Blue

Age 19 L/R 5'9" / 174 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 73 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .276 / .277

PA73

HR0

K%28

BB%8

ISO71

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.6M
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.3M
Totals		$10M		$22M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	80	70	10	2	0	0	8	23	1	0	0	143	241	171	412	29	208	29	10	197	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	80	66	15	3	0	0	12	15	1	0	0	227	354	273	627	45	288	19	15	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	TOR	—	73	66	12	2	0	0	6	20	1	1	0	182	260	212	472	30	289	27	8	256	54	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	TOR	34%	164	148	32	6	1	2	13	44	2	1	1	216	288	311	599	95	291	27	8	267	63	-7	-0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2028	21	MLB	TOR	48%	304	273	61	11	2	4	25	81	3	3	1	223	296	322	618	99	292	27	8	274	68	-11	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2029	22	MLB	TOR	54%	408	367	82	15	2	6	33	107	5	3	1	223	296	324	621	101	293	26	8	279	72	-13	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.6
2030	23	MLB	TOR	57%	477	430	96	17	3	7	39	125	5	4	2	223	295	326	621	102	294	26	8	283	74	-14	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.8
2031	24	MLB	TOR	57%	520	466	105	19	3	8	43	136	6	4	2	225	299	330	630	105	295	26	8	284	76	-14	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2032	25	MLB	TOR	57%	520	466	105	19	3	8	43	136	6	4	2	225	299	330	630	105	295	26	8	285	77	-14	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2033	26	MLB	TOR	56%	520	466	106	19	3	9	43	135	6	4	2	227	301	339	640	112	295	26	8	286	77	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2034	27	MLB	TOR	55%	520	465	106	19	3	9	44	136	6	4	2	228	303	340	643	112	295	26	8	286	77	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2035	28	MLB	TOR	55%	520	465	104	19	3	8	44	137	6	4	2	224	299	329	628	105	294	26	8	285	76	-14	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.0
2036	29	MLB	TOR	53%	520	465	103	18	3	8	44	138	6	4	1	222	297	325	622	103	294	27	8	283	75	-15	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.8
2037	30	MLB	TOR	53%	520	465	102	18	2	8	44	139	6	3	1	219	295	318	613	99	292	27	8	280	73	-16	+0	-2	+9	+15	0.6
2038	31	MLB	TOR	57%	504	450	97	17	2	7	43	136	6	3	1	216	293	309	601	93	290	27	9	276	70	-17	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.3
2039	32	MLB	TOR	54%	488	439	93	16	2	7	41	134	5	2	1	212	287	305	592	93	287	27	8	271	65	-19	+0	-4	+9	+14	-0.0
2027	20	MLB	TOR	34%	56	50	11	2	0	1	5	15	1	0	0	220	304	320	624	100	293	27	9	260	57	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	TOR	48%	147	132	29	5	1	2	12	39	2	1	0	220	295	318	613	98	294	27	8	267	63	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	22	MLB	TOR	54%	221	198	44	8	1	3	18	58	3	2	1	222	297	318	615	96	295	26	8	272	66	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	23	MLB	TOR	57%	270	243	55	10	2	4	22	71	3	2	1	226	299	333	632	107	296	26	8	275	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2031	24	MLB	TOR	57%	294	265	61	11	2	5	24	77	3	2	1	230	301	343	645	113	297	26	8	277	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2032	25	MLB	TOR	57%	294	265	61	11	2	5	24	77	3	2	1	230	301	343	645	113	297	26	8	278	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2033	26	MLB	TOR	56%	294	265	61	11	2	5	24	77	3	2	1	230	301	343	645	113	297	26	8	279	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2034	27	MLB	TOR	55%	288	259	59	10	2	5	24	75	3	2	1	228	301	340	640	112	296	26	8	279	71	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2035	28	MLB	TOR	55%	285	256	58	10	2	5	24	75	3	2	1	227	300	340	640	113	296	26	8	278	71	-9	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.3
2036	29	MLB	TOR	53%	278	249	55	10	1	4	24	74	3	2	1	221	297	317	614	96	295	27	9	276	69	-10	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2037	30	MLB	TOR	53%	274	246	54	10	1	4	23	73	3	2	1	220	294	317	611	98	294	27	8	273	67	-10	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.1
2038	31	MLB	TOR	57%	285	256	55	10	1	4	24	77	3	2	1	215	290	309	598	94	291	27	8	269	64	-12	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.0
2039	32	MLB	TOR	54%	266	238	51	9	1	4	23	73	3	1	0	214	292	311	603	97	288	27	9	264	60	-12	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3252	2922	654	117	18	51	271	861	36	22	10	224	298	329	626	105	298	26	8	274	68	-118	+0	-6	+58	+92	2.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	131	23	4	10	54	172	7	4	2	224	297	329	626	104	300	26	8	274	68	-24	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	6138	5501	1214	217	32	91	513	1627	70	44	19	221	295	321	617	101	294	27	8	280	72	-193	+1	-10	+110	+174	8.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	129	23	3	10	54	172	7	5	2	221	295	322	618	101	294	26	8	280	72	-20	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	80	66	15	3	0	0	12	15	1	0	0	227	354	273	627	45	288	19	15	298	86	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,325	50	25	222	293	324	+59	+32	5.1	4.5
	/162	664	10	5	222	293	324	+11.9	+6.4	1.0	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Garcia (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	206/276/277	70	289	0	1	28%	8%	54	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Omar Alfonzo 2023 · A	19	36→40	37→45	48→40	48	171/261/237	65	254	5	3	32%	10%	39	-2.5	205/290/309	104	318	11	4	35%	10%	69	-0.4	200/285/307	107	317	13	2	38%	10%	64	-0.5
✕Luis Valenzuela 2013 · A	19	42	38→45	52→45	44	198/258/283	84	268	4	6	26%	7%	47	-1.9	212/252/292	80	276	5	8	24%	5%	46	-2.0	257/280/358	100	316	5	7	20%	2%	71	-0.1
✕Robert Lopez 2023 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	40	174/248/241	67	275	4	6	36%	7%	33	-2.9	194/254/283	89	295	8	4	34%	7%	46	-2.0	181/244/265	84	271	8	3	34%	7%	35	-1.0
✕Shed Long Jr. 2015 · A	19	39→47	36→50	46→50	39	188/233/248	60	262	3	6	29%	5%	27	-3.3	221/276/335	114	304	11	9	29%	6%	69	-0.4	233/295/385	151	314	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→42	39→55	47→45	39	169/233/258	89	267	6	8	37%	7%	31	-3.0	206/271/341	135	300	13	8	33%	8%	69	-0.4	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Juan Diaz 2007 · A	18	37→47	35→45	44→45	45	175/255/243	68	260	2	6	31%	8%	37	-2.6	206/250/273	67	281	3	5	26%	5%	40	-2.4	255/291/351	96	335	7	7	25%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	47	-1.9	210/260/302	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.5	184/227/264	80	254	7	0	30%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2022 · A	19	42	36→45	46→55	52	196/279/261	65	256	3	9	23%	10%	52	-1.6	220/298/308	88	314	7	14	29%	10%	71	-0.3	212/292/305	93	325	9	17	34%	10%	65	-0.3
✕Juan Centeno 2008 · A	18	41	37→45	49→40	43	197/253/265	68	259	4	6	25%	6%	40	-2.4	198/256/259	61	255	3	6	22%	6%	40	-2.4	238/286/352	114	281	11	2	19%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42→41	36→45	47→45	43	198/272/267	70	271	3	8	27%	6%	50	-1.7	197/299/316	119	271	14	6	30%	9%	76	+0.1	174/315/272	98	251	9	3	30%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Daniel Santos 2018 · A	19	37	36→45	46→40	43	178/255/242	64	250	3	6	28%	7%	37	-2.6	197/260/282	85	284	6	6	31%	6%	49	-1.8	186/247/273	87	269	7	4	31%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	43	-2.2	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	40	-2.4	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	10	-1.5
✕Herman Armas 2006 · A	19	37	36→45	41→50	44	179/250/243	64	257	4	7	30%	8%	35	-2.8	210/278/316	106	287	9	10	28%	7%	66	-0.6	212/283/329	117	282	11	12	27%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Marco Guzman 2014 · A	19	39	36→45	44→50	48	185/262/256	71	249	3	8	25%	9%	43	-2.2	207/264/294	87	251	5	7	19%	7%	53	-1.5	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Carlos Soto 2018 · A	19	44	35→50	47→30	48	206/271/262	56	268	3	3	23%	8%	47	-1.9	199/261/286	87	276	8	4	29%	7%	50	-1.7	169/254/290	121	232	12	0	31%	9%	48	-0.7
✕Leandro Pineda 2021 · A	19	37→39	36→45	44→45	43	180/244/238	58	245	3	6	27%	6%	30	-3.1	177/256/267	90	270	6	6	34%	8%	44	-2.1	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Ben Rortvedt 2018 · A	20	40	37→45	48→40	43	194/245/264	70	248	5	3	24%	6%	37	-2.7	214/270/309	95	285	8	3	26%	6%	59	-1.1	200/285/311	111	278	12	2	30%	9%	65	-0.3
✕Leopoldo Correa 2011 · A	19	41	37→45	42→30	47	194/260/268	74	247	3	4	22%	7%	45	-2.1	214/272/303	89	268	7	3	22%	7%	59	-1.1	212/269/300	89	261	8	0	21%	6%	53	-0.5