Ian Medina

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKDSL Miami	12	1	28	2.54	3.06	27.4%	14.5%	—	K 18.6% · BB 18.1% · FIP 4.16
2025	21	ROKDSL Miami	16	0	31	3.19	2.81	30.3%	10.7%	—	K 20.6% · BB 13.3% · FIP 3.93
2026	22	MIX2 levels	31	0	45	6.15	4.95	19.4%	16.0%	—	K 14.3% · BB 20.2% · FIP 6.03
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIA	20	0	21	5.72	5.72	18.3%	17.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIA	17	0	18	5.40	5.27	19.7%	14.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAustin Hamilton (age 23) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24) · Dillon Larsen (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126134vR 142

ERA5.72

FIP5.72

K%18.3%

BB%17.0%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	12	1	28	124	34	18	1	8%	2.4	18.6%	18.1%	0.5%	0.6%	2.54	4.16	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	12	1	28	124	34	18	1	8%	2.4	18.6%	18.1%	0.5%	0.6%	2.54	4.16	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	12	1	28	124	34	18	1	8%	2.4	27.4%	14.5%	12.9%	0.8%	2.54	3.06	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	16	0	31	122	37	13	2	0%	1.9	20.6%	13.3%	7.3%	1.6%	3.19	3.93	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	16	0	31	122	37	13	2	0%	1.9	20.6%	13.3%	7.3%	1.6%	3.19	3.93	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	16	0	31	122	37	13	2	0%	1.9	30.3%	10.7%	19.7%	1.6%	3.19	2.81	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	45	206	40	33	5	0%	1.5	14.3%	20.2%	-5.9%	2.9%	6.15	6.03	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	45	206	40	33	5	0%	1.5	14.3%	20.2%	-5.9%	2.9%	6.15	6.03	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	45	206	40	33	5	0%	1.5	19.4%	16.0%	3.4%	2.4%	6.15	4.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	20	0	21	89	16	15	3	0%	1.1	18.3%	17.0%	1.2%	3.0%	5.72	5.72	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	40	0	42	176	35	26	5	0%	1.0	19.7%	14.6%	5.1%	2.9%	5.40	5.27	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	17	0	18	76	15	11	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	14.6%	5.1%	2.9%	5.40	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	15	11	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	14.6%	5.1%	2.9%	5.40	4.89	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	123	22	0%	1.1	19.7%	14.6%	5.1%	2.9%	5.40	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		59	1	105	452	78	80	9	2%	1.8	17.2%	17.8%	-0.6%	1.9%	4.30	4.95	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	2	200	864	149	154	17	2%	1.8	17.2%	17.8%	-0.6%	1.9%	4.30	4.95	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.72	18.3%	17.0%	3.0%	—	5.27	19.7%	5.1%	42	-0.45	—	—	—
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	91
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	90
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	88
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	86
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	85
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	85
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	84
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	84
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	84
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	83
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	83
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	83
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	82
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	82
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	82
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	82
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	81
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	81
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	81
Jeff Wallace L 2000 · 5.61 FIP	24	SU	5.61	14.6%	17.8%	2.7%	.308	4.73	16.9%	0.5%	50	-0.88	2.51	137	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	19.2%	15.4%	1.14	5.51
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*