Rafael Moran

OF DSL Padres Brown

Age 18 R/R ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Padres Br…	135	.223/.351/.259	0	3	18	—	.136/.239/.153
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBSD	245	.209/.280/.273	1	2	59	-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBSD	70	.210/.283/.282	1	1	64	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%70

BB%51

Whiff%50

K%42

Chase%22

wOBA20

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsKendry Chirinos (age 18) · Aaron Familia (age 18) · Robert Gonzalez (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 113 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .277 / .271

PA113

HR1

K%27

BB%8

ISO65

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	112	25	4	0	0	21	31	1	3	6	223	351	259	610	36	305	23	16	293	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	118	16	2	0	0	15	38	1	3	6	136	239	153	391	17	201	28	11	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	118	16	2	0	0	15	38	1	3	6	136	239	153	391	17	198	28	11	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	112	25	4	0	0	21	31	1	3	6	223	351	259	610	36	305	23	16	293	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	118	16	2	0	0	15	38	1	3	6	136	239	153	391	17	201	28	11	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	135	118	16	2	0	0	15	38	1	3	6	136	239	153	391	17	201	28	11	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	SD	0%	245	221	45	7	1	1	20	66	2	2	1	209	280	273	553	65	288	27	8	255	59	-12	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	SD	34%	203	182	39	6	1	2	17	54	2	2	1	213	286	288	573	74	290	27	8	263	64	-9	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.6
2028	19	MLB CTX	SD	34%	70	63	13	2	0	1	6	19	1	1	0	210	283	282	565	72	285	27	9	260	64	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	70	63	13	2	0	1	6	19	1	1	0	206	286	286	571	79	279	27	9	260	49	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	121	19	0	9	56	176	9	9	0	207	286	285	572	79	280	27	9	260	49	-28	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	451	402	77	11	2	3	41	123	4	6	7	192	273	251	524	60	265	27	9	241	49	-14	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	111	16	3	4	59	177	6	9	10	192	273	250	523	59	266	27	9	241	49	-29	+0	+0	-4	+14	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Moran (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	207/277/271	64	288	1	1	27%	8%	59	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kendry Chirinos 2023 · A	18	37	36→40	47→50	50	173/283/243	70	269	3	4	33%	11%	57	-1.8	188/290/262	74	322	5	5	38%	11%	63	-1.4	190/285/262	72	323	6	3	38%	10%	59	-0.7
✕Aaron Familia 2017 · A	18	37	37→40	48→40	49	176/273/245	69	259	5	4	31%	10%	53	-2.1	181/273/257	76	304	5	4	38%	9%	55	-2.0	161/257/235	74	286	5	3	41%	9%	43	-0.8
✕Robert Gonzalez 2019 · A	18	36	38→40	51→60	46	169/274/247	78	269	5	6	36%	10%	54	-2.0	182/297/263	81	257	4	11	27%	12%	66	-1.1	156/296/225	69	205	4	20	22%	14%	57	-0.6
✕Sherten Apostel 2017 · A	18	37→35	35→45	46→40	41	175/245/234	59	282	3	4	36%	8%	38	-3.2	186/275/297	111	261	11	4	30%	10%	64	-1.3	193/267/324	131	282	16	2	36%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Jean Selmo 2018 · A	18	37	38→40	53→45	42	178/244/257	79	264	5	8	33%	7%	43	-2.8	187/256/268	81	287	4	8	33%	8%	49	-2.4	189/276/283	93	254	3	8	24%	10%	59	-0.6
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2011 · A	18	37	35→45	48→40	42	177/235/231	54	239	3	5	27%	6%	33	-3.6	184/243/259	75	261	6	4	30%	5%	43	-2.8	180/240/266	87	256	7	2	31%	5%	41	-0.9
✕Maximo Rivera 2011 · A	18	38	35→40	46→60	41	182/244/236	54	260	2	9	29%	6%	38	-3.2	188/248/259	71	238	6	19	22%	6%	45	-2.7	211/263/264	53	270	3	24	22%	5%	49	-0.7
✕Douglas Glod 2023 · A	18	39	38→45	45	48	183/272/267	84	278	5	7	33%	10%	56	-1.9	171/272/262	91	324	7	5	44%	11%	56	-1.9	141/253/223	82	287	7	3	47%	12%	39	-1.2
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	34	38→40	50	39	169/229/246	77	248	5	6	33%	6%	34	-3.5	162/235/226	64	222	3	6	27%	6%	34	-3.5	156/245/214	58	204	3	7	23%	6%	36	-0.9
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2008 · A	18	38	36→30	45→55	43	182/261/246	64	267	4	8	31%	7%	47	-2.5	191/274/257	66	277	5	15	30%	8%	55	-2.0	178/262/237	58	268	6	17	33%	8%	44	-0.9
✕Johan Lopez 2018 · A	18	37	35→45	46→55	43	176/237/233	57	229	2	11	23%	6%	34	-3.5	195/259/271	76	231	3	15	16%	6%	51	-2.2	197/272/303	107	268	9	18	28%	7%	63	-0.7
✕Mariel Bautista 2016 · A	18	39→36	37→40	50	43	187/252/262	75	256	4	8	27%	7%	47	-2.6	212/263/294	82	263	5	14	20%	5%	58	-1.7	223/269/315	92	265	7	18	18%	4%	63	-0.5
✕Victor Cardoza 2024 · A	18	40	37→40	50	41	188/264/265	77	274	3	11	31%	7%	53	-2.1	195/247/286	91	301	7	13	36%	5%	51	-2.3	191/238/278	88	304	8	14	38%	5%	43	-1.0
✕Adrian De Leon 2022 · A	18	41	37→40	49→45	44	196/271/269	73	275	4	6	29%	7%	56	-1.9	203/293/278	75	310	5	6	33%	9%	68	-1.0	160/270/224	63	280	5	3	40%	10%	47	-1.1
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A	18	40→37	36→40	43→50	42	189/253/255	66	268	3	10	29%	7%	45	-2.7	186/285/263	77	351	4	9	43%	10%	61	-1.5	162/274/240	78	346	5	7	47%	10%	51	-1.0
✕Willian Berti 2024 · A	18	39	36→40	45→40	51	184/277/252	68	253	4	5	27%	10%	55	-1.9	174/276/249	75	247	5	5	28%	11%	55	-2.0	136/272/212	76	189	5	4	28%	14%	45	-0.7
✕Roni Cabrera 2023 · A	18	38	37→45	51→55	42	182/249/251	69	265	4	10	31%	7%	43	-2.8	183/257/282	99	270	8	12	33%	8%	54	-2.0	154/234/265	111	235	11	17	37%	8%	40	-0.8
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	36	37→40	45→40	39	173/235/244	71	229	4	7	25%	4%	36	-3.3	195/255/265	70	253	5	5	24%	5%	49	-2.4	187/247/244	57	242	6	3	24%	4%	40	-0.8
✕Jose Pena 2011 · A	18	35→36	37→45	47→40	47	170/252/248	77	248	3	6	30%	9%	45	-2.7	178/233/281	103	244	8	4	29%	6%	44	-2.8	173/221/298	125	225	12	3	29%	5%	42	-1.1
✕Jose Pirela 2024 · A	18	39→35	38→45	48→50	47	185/272/266	81	257	4	10	28%	8%	57	-1.8	168/242/269	101	276	9	9	40%	6%	46	-2.6	157/231/267	110	255	11	11	41%	6%	39	-1.7