Ethan Wagner

OF FCL Astros

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKHOU	153	.229/.336/.374	4	2	37	—	.167/.243/.268
2026	20	ROKHOU	65	.245/.431/.490	1	6	76	—	.167/.308/.333
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBHOU	175	.194/.265/.292	2	2	58	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBHOU	51	.200/.272/.306	1	1	62	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%98

Speed97

ISO92

wRC+88

wOBA80

BB%80

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRudy van Heydoorn (age 21) · Jose Cordoba (age 20) · Ethan Workinger (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .263 / .290

PA64

HR1

K%30

BB%8

ISO98

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	153	131	30	5	1	4	19	37	2	2	3	229	336	374	710	145	286	24	12	321	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	65	49	12	3	3	1	13	12	3	6	1	245	431	490	921	245	306	18	20	409	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	153	138	23	3	1	3	12	54	2	2	3	167	243	268	512	101	237	35	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	65	54	9	2	2	1	8	17	3	6	1	167	308	333	641	167	229	26	12	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	153	138	23	3	1	3	12	54	2	2	3	167	243	268	512	101	244	35	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	153	131	30	5	1	4	19	37	2	2	3	229	336	374	710	145	286	24	12	321	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	65	54	9	2	2	1	8	17	3	6	1	167	308	333	641	167	222	26	12	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	65	49	12	3	3	1	13	12	3	6	1	245	431	490	921	245	306	18	20	409	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	153	138	23	3	1	3	12	54	2	2	3	167	243	268	512	101	237	35	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	65	54	9	2	2	1	8	17	3	6	1	167	308	333	641	167	229	26	12	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	153	138	23	3	1	3	12	54	2	2	3	167	243	268	512	101	237	35	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	65	54	9	2	2	1	8	17	3	6	1	167	308	333	641	167	229	26	12	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	175	158	30	5	2	2	13	52	2	2	1	194	265	292	557	98	268	30	7	254	58	-9	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	149	134	26	5	1	2	12	43	2	2	1	198	270	303	573	105	271	29	8	260	62	-7	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	51	46	9	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	200	272	306	578	106	275	29	8	263	62	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	51	46	9	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	196	275	304	579	109	267	29	8	263	55	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	114	25	0	13	51	191	13	13	0	195	274	304	578	109	264	29	8	263	55	-29	+3	+0	-4	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	431	384	70	12	5	7	37	133	8	11	5	182	268	294	562	112	256	31	9	249	55	-10	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	106	18	8	11	56	201	12	17	8	183	269	299	568	116	257	31	9	249	55	-30	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Wagner (OGILVIE)	21	30	35	40	45	192/263/290	98	268	1	1	30%	8%	58	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	31	39→40	40→50	43	157/245/233	76	238	7	8	35%	8%	39	-3.1	186/267/280	94	282	8	5	34%	9%	57	-1.8	172/284/270	98	232	9	2	27%	12%	64	-0.5
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	37→41	42→45	45	39	187/239/300	113	260	9	5	31%	6%	51	-2.3	205/255/326	121	270	13	6	28%	6%	63	-1.4	198/253/321	123	239	15	9	24%	6%	58	-1.1
✕Jose Meza 2024 · A	21	43→42	39→40	44→50	50	203/296/287	84	284	7	7	29%	10%	70	-0.8	197/287/295	98	292	9	10	33%	10%	69	-0.9	186/278/281	95	274	9	12	33%	9%	61	-1.1
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→32	41→40	49→50	45	190/258/293	104	259	8	12	29%	8%	57	-1.8	179/258/267	88	262	6	9	31%	9%	51	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Joey Armstrong 2016 · A	22	38	37→40	44→45	43	187/245/256	69	259	5	5	29%	7%	42	-2.9	207/272/286	79	305	4	7	31%	7%	60	-1.6	206/279/285	79	309	4	8	32%	7%	58	-0.8
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	35	37→45	42→40	38	175/237/244	69	259	5	4	33%	6%	37	-3.3	206/258/298	92	286	7	4	29%	6%	57	-1.8	213/268/321	108	292	9	2	29%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Kevin Made 2024 · A	21	41→38	41→45	44→50	43	201/259/301	99	267	7	5	27%	6%	58	-1.7	203/265/276	73	275	5	10	26%	7%	55	-2.0	197/260/254	57	268	4	12	26%	6%	46	-1.6
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2007 · A	21	39	38→40	45→55	39	187/243/268	81	270	4	8	31%	6%	45	-2.7	194/262/265	71	270	4	15	28%	7%	51	-2.2	186/265/247	62	244	4	22	24%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Anderson De Los Santos 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	43→50	40	192/247/282	89	269	7	8	30%	6%	49	-2.4	183/261/280	97	274	9	12	34%	9%	55	-1.9	173/266/275	101	253	10	13	33%	10%	53	-1.5
✕Luis Sanchez 2008 · A	21	37	36→30	45→40	45	179/256/239	60	261	4	7	31%	8%	44	-2.8	203/263/257	54	283	2	4	27%	7%	49	-2.4	198/256/242	45	274	1	2	26%	7%	41	-1.4
✕Daniel Berg 2006 · A	21	38	37→40	44→40	40	184/249/253	69	256	5	9	29%	6%	45	-2.7	189/255/279	90	281	7	4	33%	7%	52	-2.2	188/258/276	89	278	8	2	33%	7%	51	-1.2
✕Jose Medina 2008 · A	21	38	40	45→50	49	184/268/274	90	232	8	10	23%	8%	57	-1.8	196/274/301	105	273	9	8	30%	8%	65	-1.2	177/263/298	121	244	10	4	30%	6%	59	-0.4
✕Armando Sierra 2024 · A	20	42	39→40	42→40	47	204/271/287	83	267	6	4	25%	8%	60	-1.6	209/260/307	98	311	8	5	33%	6%	59	-1.6	193/225/303	110	284	12	0	36%	3%	44	-0.5
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Ariel Baez 2012 · A	21	36	38→40	43→45	46	176/252/255	79	230	5	5	25%	7%	47	-2.6	186/247/259	73	254	4	6	27%	6%	44	-2.8	148/209/202	54	199	2	6	25%	6%	15	-1.5
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	34	36→40	41→50	50	164/251/229	65	218	4	7	25%	9%	40	-3.0	171/250/245	74	225	5	10	24%	8%	43	-2.8	151/236/222	71	188	5	13	21%	9%	31	-1.3
✕David Narodowski 2011 · A	22	37	39→40	42→45	47	184/261/266	82	248	8	7	28%	8%	52	-2.2	202/262/288	86	282	6	8	29%	7%	57	-1.8	189/242/263	74	261	4	7	28%	7%	40	-0.7
✕Elio Prado 2024 · A	22	40→37	42→40	46→50	45	199/275/302	103	259	10	9	26%	7%	65	-1.2	190/255/279	89	267	8	14	30%	7%	52	-2.2	168/233/235	68	243	6	17	32%	7%	32	-1.7
✕Brian Sanchez 2017 · A	21	37	43→50	45	42	189/257/303	113	261	11	4	31%	7%	59	-1.7	184/237/278	94	281	8	4	35%	6%	45	-2.7	133/186/201	68	218	4	0	39%	6%	6	-1.0