Harlin Naut — OGILVIE

Harlin Naut P FCL Orioles

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 161 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%19.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	7	0	10	41	7	4	0	0%	1.5	17.1%	9.8%	7.3%	0.0%	1.74	2.89	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	7	0	10	41	7	4	0	0%	1.5	17.1%	9.8%	7.3%	0.0%	1.74	2.89	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	7	0	10	41	7	4	0	0%	1.5	17.1%	9.8%	7.3%	0.0%	1.74	2.91	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	2	31	130	24	11	2	18%	2.8	12.6%	10.6%	2.0%	2.2%	2.30	4.56	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	2	31	130	24	11	2	18%	2.8	12.6%	10.6%	2.0%	2.2%	2.30	4.56	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	2	31	130	24	11	2	18%	2.8	18.5%	8.5%	10.0%	1.5%	2.30	3.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	3	1	12	50	4	4	0	33%	3.9	5.4%	10.0%	-4.6%	0.0%	2.31	3.91	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	3	1	12	50	4	4	0	33%	3.9	5.4%	10.0%	-4.6%	0.0%	2.31	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	BAL	3	1	12	50	4	4	0	33%	3.9	8.0%	8.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.31	3.44	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	28	0	30	125	26	12	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.49	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	14	0	15	63	13	6	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	61	13	6	2	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.11	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	82	27	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		21	3	53	221	26	23	3	14%	2.5	11.8%	10.3%	1.5%	1.3%	2.19	4.10	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	11	200	829	98	85	10	14%	2.5	11.8%	10.3%	1.5%	1.3%	2.19	4.10	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Harlin Naut (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	19.7%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.49	21.1%	11.7%	30	-0.25	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	88
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	88
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	84
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	83
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	83
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	82
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	81
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	81
Davis Martin R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SW	3.59	16.3%	8.2%	1.5%	.317	4.71	18.9%	10.7%	233	+1.12	3.56	738	81
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	81
Enrique De Los Rios R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	16.4%	10.8%	2.4%	.289	3.85	13.6%	8.3%	126	-0.55	3.57	166	81
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	81
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	80
Ben Madison R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	21	SU	3.72	16.9%	10.0%	1.5%	.268	2.47	31.3%	15.4%	27	-1.25	2.47	183	80
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	80
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	80
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	80
A.J. Bogucki R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	22	SW	3.84	15.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.308	4.40	19.2%	8.2%	87	+0.56	3.84	142	80
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	80