Ben Madison — OGILVIE

Ben Madison P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%24.4%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	9	9	16	74	23	9	0	100%	1.8	21.1%	15.2%	5.9%	0.0%	3.38	3.24	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	9	9	16	74	23	9	0	100%	1.8	31.1%	12.2%	18.9%	0.0%	3.38	1.91	—
2019	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	8	0	20	83	19	7	1	0%	2.5	16.9%	10.0%	7.0%	1.4%	4.58	3.72	—
2019	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	8	0	20	83	19	7	1	0%	2.5	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	1.2%	4.58	2.90	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	34	138	54	17	0	0%	1.4	31.3%	15.9%	15.4%	0.0%	2.65	2.47	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	34	138	54	17	0	0%	1.4	39.1%	12.3%	26.8%	0.0%	2.65	1.42	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	70	296	105	50	5	0%	1.7	27.9%	18.9%	9.0%	2.1%	3.47	4.31	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	70	296	105	50	5	0%	1.7	27.9%	18.9%	9.0%	2.1%	3.47	4.31	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	70	296	105	50	5	0%	1.7	35.5%	16.9%	18.6%	1.7%	3.47	3.17	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	50	236	73	38	2	0%	1.6	24.6%	17.9%	6.7%	1.0%	5.58	3.81	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	50	236	73	38	2	0%	1.6	24.6%	17.9%	6.7%	1.0%	5.58	3.81	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	50	236	73	38	2	0%	1.6	30.9%	16.1%	14.8%	0.8%	5.58	2.98	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	SF	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	24.4%	16.2%	8.2%	2.7%	4.98	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SF	35	0	36	154	37	24	4	0%	1.0	24.0%	15.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.99	5.04	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	SF	10	0	11	46	11	7	1	0%	1.1	24.0%	15.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.99	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	48	12	8	1	0%	1.0	24.0%	15.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.99	4.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	140	18	0%	1.1	24.0%	15.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.99	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		114	9	190	827	214	140	10	8%	1.7	25.8%	16.9%	8.9%	1.2%	3.99	3.71	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	9	200	872	225	147	10	8%	1.7	25.8%	16.9%	8.9%	1.2%	3.99	3.71	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Madison (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	24.4%	16.2%	2.7%	—	5.04	24.0%	8.3%	36	+0.06	—	—	—
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	83
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	82
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	81
José A. Váldez R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	28	SU	4.02	23.1%	16.2%	1.5%	.325	4.21	16.8%	6.2%	103	+0.19	4.02	328	79
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	78
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	78
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	77
Stevie Branche R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	25.6%	19.1%	1.2%	.274	5.73	18.6%	1.0%	28	+1.69	3.23	162	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	77
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	77
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	77
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	76
Caleb Simpson R 2019 · 4.02 FIP	27	SU	4.02	24.7%	17.3%	1.5%	.189	4.23	22.4%	9.7%	54	+0.21	3.57	197	76
Dario Beltre R 2019 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	21.4%	17.0%	1.4%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	110	75
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	74
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	74
Travis Hissong R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	26	SU	4.17	20.3%	13.5%	2.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	122	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	24.2%	16.0%	1.09	4.98
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15