Ben Madison
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
+0.3
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.8%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%11.5%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 9 | 9 | 16 | 74 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 21.1% | 15.2% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 3.24 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 8 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 1.4% | 4.58 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | A | San Jose Giants | 25 | 0 | 34 | 138 | 54 | 17 | 0 | 31.3% | 15.9% | 0.0% | 2.65 | 2.47 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 41 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 105 | 50 | 5 | 27.9% | 18.9% | 2.2% | 3.47 | 4.33 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 31 | 0 | 50 | 236 | 73 | 38 | 2 | 24.6% | 17.9% | 1.0% | 5.58 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | SF | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 55 | 28 | 6 | 23.8% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 53 | 27 | 6 | 23.6% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 51 | 26 | 6 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SF | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 49 | 25 | 6 | 23.2% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SF | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 46 | 24 | 6 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SF | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 44 | 24 | 6 | 22.6% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SF | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 41 | 23 | 6 | 22.2% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SF | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 21.9% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | SF | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 35 | 21 | 6 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 5.12 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 114 | 9 | 190 | 827 | 214 | 140 | 10 | 25.8% | 16.9% | 1.2% | 3.99 | 3.71 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 9 | 200 | 872 | 226 | 148 | 11 | 25.8% | 16.9% | 1.2% | 3.99 | 3.71 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Madison (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 23.8% | 12.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.61 | 23.4% | 11.4% | 155 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 87 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 86 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 85 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 85 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 85 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 84 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 84 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 84 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .253 | 3.83 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 154 | +0.45 | 2.84 | 484 | 83 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .304 | 6.07 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 83 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 82 |
| Evan Gates R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 82 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 82 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.54 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .277 | 3.88 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | +0.34 | 2.86 | 596 | 82 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 81 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 81 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 80 |
| Trevin Michael R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 80 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.34 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 80 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.