Tyler Davis

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	28	1	48	3.54	3.08	23.3%	11.2%	—	K 17.6% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.14
2026	24	MIX2 levels	25	0	47	5.21	4.26	24.3%	7.9%	—	K 19.3% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.22
2027PROJ	25	MLBBOS	57	0	60	5.07	5.07	19.7%	11.7%	-0.4
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBBOS	25	0	26	4.97	4.96	20.4%	11.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBOS	35	0	37	4.93	4.95	20.6%	11.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command35FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsWill Gilbert (age 25) · Colton Johnson (age 26) · Luis Perez (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%19.7%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3035

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	48	206	48	23	2	4%	1.7	17.6%	14.1%	3.5%	1.4%	3.54	4.14	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	48	206	48	23	2	4%	1.7	17.6%	14.1%	3.5%	1.4%	3.54	4.14	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	1	48	206	48	23	2	4%	1.7	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	1.0%	3.54	3.08	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	47	202	49	16	8	0%	1.9	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	4.8%	5.21	5.22	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	47	202	49	16	8	0%	1.9	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	4.8%	5.21	5.22	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	47	202	49	16	8	0%	1.9	24.3%	7.9%	16.3%	4.0%	5.21	4.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	57	0	60	253	50	30	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.7%	8.0%	3.2%	5.07	5.07	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	57	0	60	251	51	29	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.4%	9.1%	3.2%	4.97	4.96	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	56	0	59	247	51	28	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	11.3%	9.4%	3.2%	4.93	4.95	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	25	0	26	110	22	12	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.4%	9.1%	3.2%	4.97	4.96	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	35	0	37	156	32	18	5	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.3%	9.4%	3.2%	4.93	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	55	30	9	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.3%	9.2%	3.2%	4.95	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	95	28	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.3%	9.2%	3.2%	4.95	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		53	1	95	408	75	47	12	2%	1.8	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	3.1%	4.36	4.67	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	2	200	859	159	98	26	2%	1.8	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	3.1%	4.36	4.67	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	19.7%	11.7%	3.2%	—	4.96	20.5%	9.2%	118	-0.11	—	—	—
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	89
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	88
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	86
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	86
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	86
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	86
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	85
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	85
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	85
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	84
Michael Johnson L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	25	SU	4.67	18.2%	10.4%	3.3%	.352	4.72	17.4%	7.6%	129	+0.05	3.92	256	83
Will Lamb L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	15.3%	11.7%	4.3%	.280	5.78	20.0%	6.0%	67	+0.12	3.64	178	83
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	83
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	83
Gerardo Concepción L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	16.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	104	83
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	82
Nick Swiney L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.7%	11.2%	3.8%	.307	4.93	15.1%	1.5%	49	-0.02	2.29	290	82
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.35	164	82
Keylan Killgore L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	21.7%	12.3%	4.1%	.342	3.73	24.6%	10.5%	53	-1.36	3.73	161	81
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	20.3%	11.4%	1.25	4.99
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*