Zane Taylor — OGILVIE

Zane Taylor P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%20.0%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—60

CMD3055

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	1	1	2	8	4	2	0	100%	2.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.04	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	1	1	2	8	4	2	0	100%	2.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.04	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	1	1	2	8	4	2	0	100%	2.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	24	21	108	451	95	41	11	88%	4.5	16.5%	10.3%	6.2%	3.0%	3.50	4.68	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	24	21	108	451	95	41	11	88%	4.5	16.5%	10.3%	6.2%	3.0%	3.50	4.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	OAK	16	16	81	334	67	28	9	100%	5.1	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	2.7%	3.22	3.95	—
2026	24	AA RAW	OAK	8	5	27	117	28	13	2	62%	3.4	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	1.7%	4.33	3.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	107	452	94	39	13	100%	5.9	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	3.0%	4.49	4.45	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	107	452	95	38	13	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.42	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	106	445	94	38	14	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.44	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	102	432	91	37	14	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.7%	12.3%	3.1%	4.49	4.52	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	98	413	86	37	14	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.9%	11.8%	3.3%	4.59	4.66	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	92	388	79	36	13	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	3.5%	4.74	4.83	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	86	361	72	35	13	100%	6.1	20.0%	9.6%	10.5%	3.7%	4.92	5.04	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	46	194	40	17	6	100%	5.8	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.9%	4.45	4.41	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	71	300	63	25	9	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.40	4.38	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	82	346	73	30	10	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	86	363	76	31	11	100%	6.1	21.0%	8.7%	12.3%	3.1%	4.45	4.48	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	86	363	75	32	12	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.54	4.61	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	83	350	71	32	12	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.78	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	78	329	66	31	12	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.6%	10.5%	3.6%	4.87	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	531	2243	465	199	71	100%	6.0	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.21	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	175	75	27	100%	6.0	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		25	22	110	459	78	48	14	88%	4.4	17.1%	10.6%	6.5%	3.0%	3.44	4.63	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	835	142	88	25	88%	4.4	17.1%	10.6%	6.5%	3.0%	3.44	4.63	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zane Taylor (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	20.0%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.44	21.0%	12.4%	320	-0.15	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	81
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	80
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	80
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	80
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	79
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	78
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	78
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	78
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	77
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	77
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	77
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	77
Octavio Acosta R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	15.5%	5.6%	4.0%	.337	4.39	16.3%	4.8%	184	-0.34	3.88	333	76
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	76
Josh Roberson R 2019 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	17.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.298	5.37	21.7%	5.5%	60	+1.70	3.17	229	76
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	76
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.14	21.6%	13.7%	194	+0.33	3.53	352	75
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	90	20.7%	8.8%	1.24	4.57
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98