Jesus Palacio prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jesus Palacio P DSL Rojos

Age 21 RHP 6'6" / 190 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%20.2%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	2	23	114	10	14	0	15%	1.7	6.0%	15.4%	-9.4%	0.0%	7.54	4.54	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	2	23	114	10	14	0	15%	1.7	6.0%	15.4%	-9.4%	0.0%	7.54	4.54	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	13	2	23	114	10	14	0	15%	1.7	8.8%	12.3%	-3.5%	0.0%	7.54	4.07	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	12.6%	7.6%	3.0%	4.99	4.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	—	20	0	21	90	19	10	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.77	4.67	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	—	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.77	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	44	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.1%	10.3%	2.9%	4.77	4.29	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	95	19	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.1%	10.3%	2.9%	4.77	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		13	2	23	114	7	17	0	15%	1.7	6.0%	15.4%	-9.4%	0.0%	7.54	4.54	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	18	200	1006	60	154	0	15%	1.7	6.0%	15.4%	-9.4%	0.0%	7.54	4.54	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Palacio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	20.2%	12.6%	3.0%	—	4.67	21.5%	10.3%	21	-0.32	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	85
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	85
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	84
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	84
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	84
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	84
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	83
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	83
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	83
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83
Reiss Knehr R 2018 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	21.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.267	4.86	18.8%	7.2%	171	+0.57	3.36	398	83
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	83
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	83
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	82
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	82
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	82