Matt McShane — OGILVIE

Matt McShane P Greenville Drive

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.88

FIP3.88

K%23.7%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%16.6%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	42	177	56	10	1	0%	2.0	24.0%	6.6%	17.5%	0.6%	2.55	2.25	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	42	177	56	10	1	0%	2.0	24.0%	6.6%	17.5%	0.6%	2.55	2.25	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	42	177	56	10	1	0%	2.0	31.6%	5.6%	26.0%	0.6%	2.55	1.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	31	0	49	213	55	20	12	0%	1.6	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	7.0%	4.78	6.65	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	31	0	49	213	55	20	12	0%	1.6	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	7.0%	4.78	6.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	BOS	31	0	49	213	55	20	12	0%	1.6	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	5.6%	4.78	5.20	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	47	0	49	208	50	15	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.1%	17.1%	2.7%	3.87	3.83	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	47	0	50	210	52	15	6	0%	1.1	24.5%	7.1%	17.4%	2.7%	3.85	3.81	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	47	0	50	210	52	15	6	0%	1.1	24.7%	7.2%	17.5%	2.7%	3.84	3.82	+0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	20	0	21	89	21	6	2	0%	1.1	24.2%	7.1%	17.1%	2.7%	3.87	3.83	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	31	0	33	139	34	10	4	0%	1.1	24.5%	7.1%	17.4%	2.7%	3.85	3.81	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	37	0	39	165	41	12	5	0%	1.1	24.7%	7.2%	17.5%	2.7%	3.84	3.82	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	0	94	396	97	28	11	0%	1.1	24.5%	7.2%	17.4%	2.7%	3.85	3.44	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	207	60	23	0%	1.1	24.5%	7.2%	17.4%	2.7%	3.85	3.44	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		52	0	91	390	85	35	16	0%	1.8	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	4.1%	3.74	4.66	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	0	200	854	186	76	35	0%	1.8	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	4.1%	3.74	4.66	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt McShane (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.88	23.7%	7.1%	2.7%	—	3.82	24.5%	17.3%	149	-0.06	—	—	—
Antonio Menendez R 2022 · 2.92 FIP	23	SU	2.92	24.7%	8.1%	1.6%	.314	3.70	19.7%	6.3%	166	+0.78	2.92	250	90
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	87
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	87
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	87
Eric Orze R 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SU	3.47	26.9%	7.6%	3.1%	.284	4.24	26.7%	15.9%	170	+0.77	3.42	351	87
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	87
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	86
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	86
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	86
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	86
John Fasola R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	21.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.294	2.96	19.8%	11.6%	58	-0.85	2.72	124	86
Jake Bray R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	21.1%	7.7%	1.8%	.245	4.56	21.4%	10.8%	158	+1.28	2.51	198	85
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	85
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	85
Zach Agnos R 2023 · 3.15 FIP	22	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.9%	2.0%	.265	3.86	17.7%	9.7%	166	+0.71	2.73	218	84
Jake Lee R 2018 · 2.78 FIP	23	SU	2.78	20.6%	5.1%	1.4%	.312	4.24	23.3%	12.2%	44	+1.46	2.78	181	84
Nick Rumbelow R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	22.6%	6.1%	2.4%	.295	3.54	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.26	2.03	164	84
Dusty Isaacs R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	23	SU	3.45	21.0%	6.2%	2.5%	.375	4.19	21.2%	11.1%	177	+0.74	3.16	253	84
Dakota Donovan R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	24	SU	3.15	22.2%	8.4%	1.6%	.310	3.55	20.3%	8.9%	95	+0.40	3.15	153	84
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	44	24.4%	7.1%	1.06	3.86
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31