Matt McShane
P
Greenville Drive
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 93
ERA4.06
FIP4.06
K%23.5%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%15.0%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 24.0% | 6.6% | 17.5% | 0.6% | 2.55 | 2.22 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 31.6% | 5.6% | 26.0% | 0.6% | 2.55 | 1.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 20 | 0 | 31 | 134 | 35 | 10 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.1% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 5.52 | 7.10 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.5% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.06 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 56 | 240 | 60 | 19 | 12 | — | — | 25.0% | 7.9% | 17.0% | 4.9% | 4.86 | 5.74 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.5% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 3.68 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 3.62 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 71 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 3.62 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 0 | 73 | 311 | 69 | 23 | 12 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 3.80 | 4.32 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 112 | 0 | 200 | 848 | 189 | 63 | 33 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 3.80 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt McShane (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.00 | 24.1% | 15.7% | 26 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 91 |
| Antonio Menendez R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.97 | 24.7% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .314 | 3.68 | 19.9% | 6.2% | 166 | +0.71 | 2.97 | 231 | 91 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 89 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.03 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.41 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.38 | 4.03 | 130 | 88 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 88 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2025 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.31 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.04 | 3.27 | 128 | 88 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 87 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.37 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .245 | 4.44 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 158 | +1.07 | 2.76 | 198 | 87 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.63 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | +0.04 | 2.94 | 385 | 87 |
| Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 87 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 87 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.92 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.98 | 3.94 | 122 | 86 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 86 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 86 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 86 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 86 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 86 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 86 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 86 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2027 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 1.05 | 4.04 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Sam Hentges ('24) | 4 | 52 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 0.78 | 4.18 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |