Alex Madera
SS Knoxville Smokies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25 | AA/A+CHC | 402 | .295/.405/.339 | 0 | 19 | 85 | — | .267/.344/.306 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBCHC | 3 | .219/.303/.276 | 0 | 0 | 67 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBCHC | 45 | .219/.303/.280 | 0 | 1 | 68 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 28
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 267 | 221 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 58 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 303 | 414 | 348 | 763 | 45 | 404 | 22 | 16 | 351 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 135 | 115 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 278 | 385 | 322 | 707 | 43 | 368 | 21 | 15 | 332 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 267 | 235 | 66 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 71 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 281 | 357 | 323 | 681 | 43 | 382 | 27 | 10 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 135 | 121 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 240 | 319 | 273 | 591 | 33 | 339 | 27 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 356 | 94 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 106 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 264 | 342 | 303 | 645 | 39 | 372 | 26 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 402 | 336 | 99 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 62 | 86 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 295 | 405 | 339 | 744 | 45 | 391 | 21 | 15 | 344 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 357 | 94 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 106 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 263 | 342 | 303 | 644 | 39 | 368 | 26 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 357 | 94 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 106 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 263 | 342 | 303 | 644 | 39 | 368 | 26 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 2% | 380 | 337 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 97 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 216 | 301 | 271 | 572 | 55 | 298 | 26 | 10 | 267 | 67 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 303 | 276 | 579 | 57 | 301 | 33 | 0 | 269 | 67 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 27% | 167 | 147 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 301 | 275 | 577 | 59 | 297 | 25 | 10 | 268 | 68 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 27% | 45 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 303 | 280 | 583 | 61 | 300 | 24 | 11 | 271 | 68 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 311 | 275 | 586 | 50 | 310 | 24 | 11 | 271 | 77 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 130 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 159 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 225 | 311 | 275 | 586 | 50 | 310 | 24 | 11 | 271 | 77 | -25 | +3 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 724 | 640 | 156 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 75 | 187 | 2 | 27 | 7 | 244 | 325 | 292 | 617 | 48 | 339 | 26 | 10 | 282 | 77 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 141 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 67 | 168 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 245 | 326 | 296 | 622 | 50 | 341 | 26 | 10 | 282 | 77 | -25 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 267 PAwOBA .347 → .304 (−42)K% 21.7% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.72% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 10.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.041 | ×0.988 | 33.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.041 | ×0.988 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.041 | ×0.988 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .347 → .304; ISO .045 → .043; BABIP .404 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 135 PAwOBA .324 → .271 (−53)K% 20.7% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 26.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 10.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 30.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 2.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .324 → .271; ISO .043 → .036; BABIP .368 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).