Alex Madera — OGILVIE

Alex MaderaSS South Bend Cubs

Age 25 L/R 5'10" / 179 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION233 act + 155 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .305 / .279

PA155

HR1

K%28

BB%11

BABIP300

ISO66

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 28

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER28

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	A+	CHC	—	233	206	46	3	1	0	27	67	0	8	2	223	313	248	561	24	331	29	12	260	57	-11	+1	+0	+2	+7	-0.1
YTD	25	A+	CHC	—	233	195	50	4	1	0	38	51	0	8	2	256	378	287	665	31	347	22	16	318	101	+0	+1	+0	+2	+7	1.0
ROS	25	A+	CHC	0%	155	136	29	4	1	1	17	43	1	4	1	213	305	279	583	66	297	28	11	269	64	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
ROS	25	MLB	CHC	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						298	0	0	265	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	A+	CHC	—	234	207	46	3	1	0	27	67	0	8	2	222	312	246	558	24	329	29	12	260	57	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
TOT	25	A+	CHC	—	388	342	75	7	2	1	44	110	1	12	3	219	310	260	570	41	319	28	11	264	60	-18	+1	+0	+4	+11	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	CHC	30%	482	425	92	14	2	5	51	131	3	10	2	216	305	294	599	78	298	27	11	277	70	-16	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.4
2028	27	MLB	CHC	42%	506	445	97	15	2	6	53	136	3	10	3	218	305	301	607	83	298	27	10	280	73	-16	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.5
2029	28	MLB	CHC	48%	518	455	100	16	2	6	55	139	3	10	3	220	308	303	611	84	297	27	11	282	74	-15	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.5
2030	29	MLB	CHC	53%	518	455	99	16	2	6	55	139	3	10	2	218	306	301	607	84	297	27	11	281	73	-16	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.4
2027	26	MLB	CHC	30%	146	129	28	4	1	1	15	40	1	3	1	217	303	287	590	70	299	27	10	273	67	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2028	27	MLB	CHC	42%	211	186	40	6	1	2	22	57	1	4	1	215	301	290	592	75	299	27	10	277	70	-7	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.1
2029	28	MLB	CHC	48%	247	217	48	8	1	3	26	66	2	5	1	221	310	309	619	88	298	27	11	278	71	-8	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.2
2030	29	MLB	CHC	53%	275	242	52	8	1	3	29	74	2	5	1	215	304	293	597	79	298	27	11	277	70	-9	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	880	775	168	26	4	9	92	237	6	17	4	217	305	295	600	79	298	27	10	277	70	-30	+2	-1	+9	+25	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	124	19	3	7	68	175	4	13	3	217	304	297	601	80	298	27	10	277	70	-22	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	2179	1916	417	65	9	24	231	588	13	44	11	218	306	298	604	81	299	27	11	279	72	-69	+4	-2	+23	+62	1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	124	19	3	7	69	175	4	13	3	217	306	297	603	80	297	27	11	279	72	-21	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	881	10	18	219	304	303	+9	+6	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	8	13	219	304	303	+7.1	+4.5	0.7	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Madera (OGILVIE)	25	36	28	52	61	219/310/260	41	319	1	12	28%	11%	60	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2014 · A	25	40	35→30	48→40	53	185/285/245	61	271	2	7	30%	12%	51	-1.7	209/291/299	90	290	8	7	28%	10%	66	-0.6	179/278/276	97	238	12	2	28%	11%	55	-0.4
✕Matthew Morizio 2009 · A	25	40	38→40	48→50	47	193/266/271	77	258	5	9	26%	8%	49	-1.8	188/257/262	74	249	4	9	24%	7%	43	-2.2	119/196/142	23	155	0	3	21%	7%	-15	-1.3
✕Patrick Biondi 2015 · A	24	45→44	36→30	50→60	45	211/268/281	70	279	3	15	24%	7%	50	-1.7	231/285/300	69	308	4	25	24%	6%	63	-0.9	239/296/296	57	318	3	32	24%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Austin Davidson 2018 · A	25	43→40	40→45	45	45	209/273/307	97	268	7	7	24%	7%	60	-1.0	221/281/340	119	280	10	6	24%	7%	72	-0.2	221/283/352	131	272	12	3	22%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	193/273/296	103	282	8	8	32%	9%	58	-1.2	214/297/319	105	298	10	14	29%	9%	75	-0.0	219/304/318	98	295	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Scott Wingo 2013 · A	24	46→45	38→40	48→50	49	213/304/296	83	286	4	11	25%	9%	72	-0.2	208/303/295	87	293	6	10	28%	9%	72	-0.2	188/301/272	84	273	6	9	29%	10%	62	-0.6
✕Joel Weeks 2010 · A	25	41	36→45	47→45	44	194/252/257	63	265	3	8	27%	7%	38	-2.6	218/268/299	81	283	6	5	24%	6%	56	-1.3	219/268/291	72	282	6	2	24%	6%	52	-0.6
✕Miguel Arrendell 2011 · A	23	43	37→30	50	49	203/281/278	74	276	5	13	26%	9%	56	-1.3	218/273/311	93	277	8	8	23%	7%	61	-1.0	226/274/319	93	262	9	2	17%	6%	59	-0.4
✕Norberto Obeso 2019 · A	24	44→41	36→30	47→45	50	206/271/271	66	250	4	8	19%	8%	50	-1.7	205/266/280	75	275	4	8	25%	7%	50	-1.7	193/258/257	64	268	1	5	26%	8%	37	-1.3
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	36	42→40	49→50	47	183/268/285	102	256	10	13	31%	9%	54	-1.4	203/302/300	97	289	8	11	29%	11%	72	-0.2	190/312/271	81	272	7	11	29%	13%	66	-0.4
✕Mitchell Tolman 2019 · A	25	44→50	39→45	46→50	47	209/288/295	86	289	7	10	28%	9%	64	-0.8	213/282/321	108	300	10	9	30%	8%	68	-0.5	221/294/350	129	290	13	8	27%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Micah Gibbs 2013 · A	25	42	37→30	47→45	48	198/287/269	71	294	5	5	32%	10%	58	-1.2	195/265/280	85	286	6	6	31%	8%	50	-1.7	180/240/265	85	254	6	4	30%	7%	34	-0.6
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	42→43	39→40	52→50	58	198/312/287	89	285	6	14	30%	14%	73	-0.1	204/300/291	87	305	4	9	30%	12%	69	-0.4	184/288/308	124	252	11	12	29%	12%	68	-0.2
✕César Salazar 2021 · A	25	44→40	41→45	46→45	42	214/266/308	94	265	8	8	22%	5%	58	-1.2	208/275/342	134	258	16	8	26%	6%	72	-0.2	202/308/314	111	241	11	6	20%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Bryce Windham 2022 · A	25	48	40	49→50	52	230/301/325	95	278	7	7	20%	9%	76	+0.1	220/293/307	87	281	6	8	22%	9%	69	-0.4	219/293/303	84	284	5	10	22%	9%	65	-0.3
✕Levi Hyams 2015 · A	25	44→48	38→40	45	44	210/271/296	86	289	4	7	27%	7%	56	-1.3	213/265/309	96	291	7	5	28%	6%	57	-1.2	217/267/325	108	288	10	4	27%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Carlos Sepulveda 2021 · A	24	46	34→30	49→45	46	215/276/269	53	285	2	12	24%	7%	51	-1.7	211/276/283	72	278	5	7	24%	8%	56	-1.3	192/260/254	62	254	5	3	25%	8%	38	-1.3
✕Ender Chavez 2006 · A	25	47→48	36→30	46→55	44	224/272/289	65	285	4	12	22%	6%	54	-1.4	233/306/294	61	296	3	15	20%	9%	70	-0.3	242/326/287	45	305	1	19	19%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Andy Thomas 2022 · A	24	45→39	40	48→40	48	215/290/308	93	293	7	7	27%	9%	68	-0.5	201/280/305	104	283	11	4	30%	9%	63	-0.8	190/268/285	95	260	11	4	29%	9%	51	-1.1