Alex Madera — OGILVIE

Alex MaderaSS Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 L/R 5'10" / 179 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION398 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .333 / .250

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP337

ISO73

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 28

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER28

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	25	AA MLE	CHC	—	398	351	96	10	2	0	43	107	0	19	5	274	353	313	666	40	389	27	11	300	89	-5	+2	+0	+4	+9	1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ RAW	CHC	—	135	115	32	3	1	0	20	28	0	4	2	278	385	322	707	43	368	21	15	332	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AA RAW	CHC	—	263	218	67	8	1	0	41	57	0	15	3	307	417	353	770	46	409	22	16	354	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	AA MLE	CHC	2%	9	8	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	250	333	250	583		335	22	11	289	82	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	25	AA MLE	CHC	—	407	359	98	10	2	0	44	109	0	19	5	273	352	312	664	39	387	27	11	300	89	-5	+2	+0	+4	+9	1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	31%	454	402	97	14	2	3	47	117	2	12	3	241	324	308	632	67	330	26	10	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.7
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	42%	490	434	104	16	2	4	51	125	2	12	3	240	322	313	636	74	327	26	10	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	48%	522	460	111	17	2	5	54	133	3	12	3	241	325	320	645	78	325	25	10	295	86	-9	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	49%	521	459	110	17	2	5	54	133	3	11	3	240	324	318	642	78	322	26	10	293	84	-10	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.7
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	50%	516	454	106	16	2	4	54	133	3	11	3	233	319	304	623	70	319	26	10	289	82	-11	+1	-2	+6	+11	0.4
2032	31	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	505	444	103	16	2	4	53	132	3	10	3	232	318	304	622	72	315	26	10	284	78	-13	+1	-3	+5	+11	0.1
2033	32	MLB MLE	CHC	53%	489	433	98	15	2	3	51	130	2	9	2	226	311	291	602	65	313	27	10	279	75	-15	+1	-4	+5	+11	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	31%	141	124	31	5	1	1	15	36	1	4	1	250	336	331	666	81	332	26	11	290	84	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	42%	206	182	45	7	1	2	21	52	1	5	1	247	328	330	658	82	329	25	10	292	85	-4	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	48%	250	221	53	8	1	2	26	64	1	6	1	240	323	312	635	72	327	26	10	292	86	-4	+1	-0	+3	+5	0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	49%	257	227	53	8	1	2	27	66	1	6	1	233	318	304	622	70	324	26	11	290	84	-5	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	50%	259	229	53	8	1	2	27	67	1	5	1	231	315	301	616	70	321	26	10	286	82	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2032	31	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	277	245	57	9	1	2	29	72	1	5	1	233	316	302	618	69	317	26	10	281	78	-7	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.1
2033	32	MLB CTX	CHC	53%	261	231	53	8	1	2	27	69	1	5	1	229	313	299	611	69	314	26	10	276	75	-8	+1	-2	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1651	1459	345	53	7	13	172	426	7	36	7	236	320	309	629	73	323	26	10	286	82	-36	+4	-5	+18	+36	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	136	21	3	5	68	168	3	14	3	237	321	310	631	73	324	26	10	286	82	-14	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3506	3094	731	111	14	28	365	905	18	77	20	236	320	308	629	72	323	26	10	289	82	-75	+7	-10	+38	+76	3.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	136	21	3	5	68	168	3	14	4	237	321	310	631	73	324	26	10	289	82	-14	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Rubén Tejadalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,387 PA	3.6	2,387	10	16	251	325	318	+21	+22	6.5	6.7
/162	664	3	4	+5.7	+6.1	1.8	pk7: 7
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.5	1,658	13	36	237	317	309	+18	+9	2.9	2.9
/162	664	5	14	+7.1	+3.6	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Madera (OGILVIE)	25	41	28	56	58	240/323/297	57	335	1	11	26%	11%	82	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyle Mottice 2021 · A	25	51	36→30	52→55	51	234/337/301	66	283	3	19	17%	8%	89	+0.5	228/289/309	81	290	5	14	22%	6%	71	-0.8	243/296/294	52	301	0	21	18%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2014 · A	25	41	35→30	48→40	55	187/293/249	62	273	3	7	29%	12%	61	-1.5	210/294/298	88	294	8	7	28%	10%	72	-0.7	175/277/267	92	240	11	2	29%	11%	58	-0.5
✕Jonathan Johnson 2015 · A	26	46→52	38→40	56→50	53	215/300/298	83	269	4	15	20%	10%	74	-0.6	231/318/320	89	271	6	15	16%	10%	85	+0.2	233/326/316	83	271	5	16	15%	10%	85	+0.2
✕Ian Parmley 2015 · A	25	46	35→30	55→50	52	215/285/275	60	264	3	18	19%	9%	62	-1.4	223/273/282	59	312	3	15	27%	6%	58	-1.7	244/280/304	59	347	2	17	29%	4%	62	-0.6
✕Conner Crumbliss 2012 · A	25	48→49	39→45	51→50	59	227/326/314	88	285	6	14	21%	12%	87	+0.4	221/317/333	112	269	10	14	20%	11%	88	+0.4	215/312/332	117	254	11	14	19%	11%	84	+0.2
✕Patrick Biondi 2015 · A	24	45→44	36→30	50→60	45	211/269/279	67	280	3	15	25%	7%	57	-1.8	231/285/297	66	308	3	25	24%	7%	66	-1.1	238/295/292	55	316	2	32	24%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Hoy Park 2021 · AA	25	48→49	38→45	51→55	50	227/301/311	84	298	5	16	24%	9%	76	-0.4	221/303/338	117	295	12	16	27%	10%	84	+0.1	215/302/326	111	288	12	18	27%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Roy Morales 2021 · A	26	47	38→30	51→45	46	224/287/306	82	283	5	10	22%	7%	70	-0.9	262/323/334	72	312	5	8	16%	7%	89	+0.5	282/345/343	61	332	4	7	15%	7%	96	+0.5
✕Elih Marrero 2022 · A	25	48	38→40	53→55	47	227/293/314	88	303	5	19	25%	8%	74	-0.6	211/282/293	82	303	6	22	30%	9%	65	-1.2	210/267/320	110	294	8	22	29%	6%	62	-0.4
✕Sherman Johnson 2014 · A	24	48→50	38→45	52→50	52	225/305/316	91	295	4	9	24%	10%	79	-0.2	214/292/334	120	266	11	14	22%	10%	78	-0.3	201/283/322	120	245	12	16	22%	10%	70	-0.8
✕Scott Wingo 2013 · A	24	46→45	38→40	48→50	50	213/305/296	83	285	5	11	25%	9%	76	-0.4	207/301/294	87	292	6	10	28%	9%	74	-0.6	187/297/271	84	273	6	9	30%	10%	65	-0.8
✕Carlos Sepulveda 2021 · A	24	45	34→30	49→45	47	211/274/263	53	280	2	12	24%	8%	55	-2.0	210/278/281	71	273	4	7	23%	8%	61	-1.5	191/263/253	62	248	4	3	23%	8%	46	-1.3
✕Jack Dunn 2022 · A	25	50→48	38→40	53→55	47	235/298/314	79	300	6	15	23%	7%	76	-0.4	222/305/297	75	290	6	18	23%	10%	75	-0.5	213/306/284	71	274	6	21	22%	10%	71	-0.6
✕Bryce Windham 2022 · A	25	48	40	49→50	52	230/299/324	94	279	7	7	20%	9%	78	-0.3	219/289/303	84	277	5	8	21%	9%	70	-0.8	218/289/297	79	280	4	10	22%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Ender Chavez 2006 · A	25	47→48	36→30	46→55	44	224/272/289	65	285	4	12	22%	6%	59	-1.6	234/306/294	60	297	3	15	20%	9%	74	-0.6	242/326/288	45	305	1	19	19%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Gabe Holt 2022 · AA	24	52→54	35→30	52→50	55	242/323/301	59	292	3	12	17%	10%	82	+0.0	214/268/276	62	249	3	12	14%	6%	55	-1.9	187/225/223	35	209	0	14	10%	4%	23	-2.2
✕Julio Gonzalez 2018 · A	23	48	35→30	55→50	50	223/288/289	66	286	2	12	22%	8%	66	-1.1	206/269/276	70	268	2	8	22%	8%	56	-1.9	173/238/228	55	217	0	5	19%	8%	31	-1.0
✕Jax Biggers 2021 · A	24	47→49	38→40	49→50	49	224/286/299	76	273	5	12	19%	8%	68	-1.0	214/267/304	90	269	7	14	22%	6%	61	-1.5	216/291/309	93	283	7	13	24%	9%	70	-0.5
✕Stephen Wickens 2014 · A	25	48→46	38→40	51→55	51	225/302/306	81	272	4	14	18%	8%	76	-0.4	220/282/294	74	276	4	16	20%	7%	65	-1.2	223/280/281	58	280	2	20	19%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Ripken Reyes 2022 · A	25	51→48	37→40	53→50	45	234/331/314	81	312	4	13	24%	7%	90	+0.6	218/322/296	78	265	5	15	18%	8%	83	+0.1	209/317/284	75	251	5	17	17%	7%	76	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps