Tegan Cain

P Clearwater Threshers

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	APHI	2	2	0.00	1.10	33.3%	0.0%	—	K 33.3% · BB 0.0% · FIP 0.29
2026	23	MIX3 levels	30	41	3.29	3.20	30.9%	11.4%	—	K 23.6% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.66
2027PROJ	24	MLBPHI	54	57	4.96	4.96	23.4%	13.9%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBPHI	24	25	4.83	4.78	23.7%	12.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBPHI	36	38	4.75	4.72	23.9%	12.5%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command35FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsHarrison Cohen (age 24) · Ben Hecht (age 24) · Brandon Johnson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%23.4%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3035

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	2	0	2	6	2	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2024	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	2	0	2	6	2	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2024	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	2	0	2	6	2	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	41	175	54	20	4	0%	1.4	23.6%	13.3%	10.2%	3.4%	3.29	4.66	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	41	175	54	20	4	0%	1.4	23.6%	13.3%	10.2%	3.4%	3.29	4.66	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	41	175	54	20	4	0%	1.4	30.9%	11.4%	19.4%	2.3%	3.29	3.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PHI	54	0	57	241	56	33	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.9%	9.5%	3.1%	4.96	4.96	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	55	0	58	244	58	31	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	12.8%	10.9%	3.1%	4.83	4.78	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	55	0	58	244	58	31	7	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.5%	11.4%	3.1%	4.75	4.72	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	24	0	25	106	25	14	3	0%	1.0	23.7%	12.8%	10.9%	3.1%	4.83	4.78	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	36	0	38	160	38	20	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.5%	11.4%	3.1%	4.75	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	266	63	34	8	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.6%	11.2%	3.1%	4.78	4.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	108	25	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.6%	11.2%	3.1%	4.78	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		32	0	43	181	43	23	6	0%	1.3	23.9%	12.9%	11.0%	3.3%	3.14	4.51	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	0	200	842	201	108	28	0%	1.3	23.9%	12.9%	11.0%	3.3%	3.14	4.51	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tegan Cain (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	23.4%	13.9%	3.1%	—	4.75	23.8%	11.2%	116	-0.21	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	95
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	94
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	93
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	93
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	92
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	91
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	90
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	90
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	89
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	89
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	88
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	88
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	88
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	87
Aaron Crow R 2011 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	24.4%	10.9%	3.2%	.287	4.16	20.1%	11.4%	172	-0.04	2.88	234	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	87
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	87
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	87
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	23.7%	13.1%	1.19	4.85
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*