Ryan Andrade — OGILVIE

Ryan Andrade P Bowling Green Hot Rods

+0.4 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.9 · 2029

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.5%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%9.4%

IP119

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.9peak

2029

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	119	491	90	47	5	13.6%	11.3%	1.1%	2.87	4.00	+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	2	0	3	16	4	2	0	—	—	—	6.00	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	TB	22	22	119	502	98	51	13	19.5%	10.1%	2.6%	4.53	4.53	+1.0
2026 Total	23	MLB	TB	—	—	122	518	102	53	13	19.7%	10.1%	2.5%	4.57	4.42	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	TB	25	25	138	583	120	55	15	20.5%	9.4%	2.6%	4.41	4.36	+1.5
2028	25	MLB	TB	28	28	152	641	135	58	17	21.1%	9.0%	2.6%	4.32	4.27	+1.8
2029	26	MLB	TB	29	29	159	670	143	60	18	21.3%	8.9%	2.6%	4.28	4.25	+1.9
2030	27	MLB	TB	29	29	162	682	146	61	18	21.4%	8.9%	2.7%	4.27	4.26	+1.9
2031	28	MLB	TB	29	29	161	680	145	61	18	21.3%	8.9%	2.7%	4.28	4.29	+1.8
2032	29	MLB	TB	29	29	158	665	141	60	18	21.2%	9.0%	2.7%	4.31	4.33	+1.7
2033	30	MLB	TB	28	28	153	645	135	59	18	21.0%	9.1%	2.8%	4.36	4.39	+1.6
2034	31	MLB	TB	27	27	148	623	129	58	18	20.8%	9.2%	2.9%	4.42	4.47	+1.4
2035	32	MLB	TB	26	26	142	598	122	56	18	20.5%	9.4%	2.9%	4.50	4.55	+1.2
2036	33	MLB	TB	25	25	135	571	115	55	17	20.2%	9.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.65	+1.0
2037	34	MLB	TB	23	23	128	542	107	53	17	19.8%	9.8%	3.1%	4.69	4.76	+0.8
2038	35	MLB	TB	22	22	121	511	99	51	17	19.4%	10.0%	3.2%	4.81	4.88	+0.6
2039	36	MLB	TB	21	21	113	478	91	49	16	19.0%	10.2%	3.4%	4.93	5.02	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			25	23	122	507	71	57	5	13.9%	11.3%	1.1%	2.95	3.95	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—			41	38	200	831	116	93	8	13.9%	11.3%	1.1%	2.95	3.95	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Andrade (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	19.5%	10.1%	2.6%	—	4.29	21.0%	11.9%	448	-0.24	—	—	—
Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.17	347	94
Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	.306	4.40	15.8%	1.0%	202	-0.11	3.67	321	94
Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	4.97	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.17	4.68	326	93
Adam Hill R 2025 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.14	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.15	4.99	213	93
Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP-	4.65	15.0%	10.9%	2.6%	.278	4.65	18.9%	9.7%	266	+0.00	4.00	518	93
Tyler Woessner R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP-	4.09	16.4%	11.8%	1.6%	.307	5.37	18.0%	3.0%	76	+1.28	4.09	197	92
Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	17.9%	10.9%	2.5%	.285	4.64	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.30	3.44	393	92
Chase Cohen R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	92
Chris Anderson R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP-	4.69	14.4%	11.2%	2.5%	.288	5.43	12.5%	-3.1%	77	+0.74	4.69	204	92
Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	16.6%	11.6%	2.1%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	199	91
Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP-	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.70	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.91	3.45	542	91
Linder Castro R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.25	4.25	279	91
Alex Royalty R 2025 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	90
Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	19.3%	10.7%	2.5%	.315	4.02	18.1%	9.4%	296	-0.15	3.77	420	90
Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.41	4.10	193	90
Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	90
Peyton Olejnik R 2025 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	17.1%	13.2%	1.6%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	90
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	89
Elijah Dale R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	23	SP-	4.57	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.46	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.89	4.57	140	89
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.78	18.8%	6.8%	146	+0.51	4.27	238	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.9	$17M	+$16M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.9	$18M	+$17M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.7	$16M	+$15M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.6	$16M	+$14M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.4	$14M	+$12M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.2	$13M	+$10M
Totals		$9M		$93M	+$84M