Ryan Andrade — OGILVIE

Ryan Andrade P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%11.9%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%-1.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	119	491	90	47	5	100%	5.2	13.6%	11.3%	2.3%	1.1%	2.87	4.01	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	119	491	90	47	5	100%	5.2	13.6%	11.3%	2.3%	1.1%	2.87	4.01	—
2025	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	119	491	90	47	5	100%	5.2	18.3%	9.6%	8.8%	1.0%	2.87	3.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	33	0	40	191	43	23	10	0%	1.2	17.3%	13.8%	3.5%	6.5%	7.59	6.98	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	33	0	40	191	43	23	10	0%	1.2	17.3%	13.8%	3.5%	6.5%	7.59	6.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	TB	33	0	40	191	43	23	10	0%	1.2	22.5%	12.0%	10.5%	5.2%	7.59	5.60	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TB	6	0	6	27	3	4	1	0%	1.1	11.9%	13.4%	-1.4%	2.6%	5.59	5.59	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	47	218	46	27	11	—	—	21.2%	12.2%	9.0%	4.9%	7.32	6.79	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TB	105	0	110	464	67	57	12	0%	1.0	14.4%	12.3%	2.1%	2.6%	5.33	5.26	-0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	106	0	111	470	75	55	12	0%	1.0	15.9%	11.8%	4.1%	2.6%	5.14	5.07	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	106	0	111	470	79	54	12	0%	1.0	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	2.6%	5.02	4.98	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	104	0	110	462	78	53	12	0%	1.1	16.9%	11.5%	5.3%	2.7%	5.00	5.00	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	101	0	106	448	75	52	13	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.7%	5.1%	2.8%	5.05	5.08	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	97	0	101	428	71	51	13	0%	1.0	16.5%	11.9%	4.6%	2.9%	5.15	5.21	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	TB	91	0	95	402	65	49	13	0%	1.0	16.1%	12.2%	4.0%	3.1%	5.29	5.39	-0.9
2027	24	MLB CTX	TB	45	0	47	198	29	24	5	0%	1.0	14.4%	12.3%	2.1%	2.6%	5.33	5.26	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	70	0	74	312	50	37	8	0%	1.1	15.9%	11.8%	4.1%	2.6%	5.14	5.07	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	84	0	88	372	62	43	10	0%	1.0	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	2.6%	5.02	4.98	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	89	0	93	393	66	45	11	0%	1.0	16.9%	11.5%	5.3%	2.7%	5.00	5.00	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	90	0	95	401	67	47	11	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.7%	5.1%	2.8%	5.05	5.08	-0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	88	0	92	388	64	46	11	0%	1.0	16.5%	11.9%	4.6%	2.9%	5.15	5.21	-0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	TB	84	0	88	372	60	45	12	0%	1.0	16.1%	12.2%	4.0%	3.1%	5.29	5.39	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		550	0	577	2437	398	288	68	0%	1.0	16.3%	11.8%	4.5%	2.8%	5.12	4.75	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	138	100	24	0%	1.0	16.3%	11.8%	4.5%	2.8%	5.12	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		56	23	159	682	100	82	18	41%	2.8	14.6%	12.0%	2.6%	2.7%	4.07	4.84	-5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	29	200	856	125	103	23	41%	2.8	14.6%	12.0%	2.6%	2.7%	4.07	4.84	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Andrade (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	11.9%	13.4%	2.6%	—	5.10	15.7%	3.8%	332	-0.49	—	—	—
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	88
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	87
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	86
Kyle Miller R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	23	SW	4.68	12.1%	12.0%	2.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	84
Zach Mort R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	22	SW	5.01	10.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.240	5.35	17.0%	8.8%	176	+0.34	4.95	237	83
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	83
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	82
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	82
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	81
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	81
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	81
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	80
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	80
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	79
Juan Perez R 2017 · 4.52 FIP	22	SW	4.52	10.8%	10.8%	1.8%	.230	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	113	79
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	79
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	79
Félix Paulino R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	13.4%	10.0%	2.8%	.313	5.43	18.0%	7.9%	77	+0.66	3.33	394	79
Tyler Peyton R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	23	SW	5.25	11.1%	10.5%	3.2%	.298	4.44	12.8%	1.6%	115	-0.81	3.86	183	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	103	15.7%	12.0%	1.06	5.18
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77