Ryan Andrade
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
A+
peak 1.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 83 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 125
ERA5.56
FIP5.56
K%11.9%
BB%13.3%
K-BB%-1.3%
ROS IP83
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 23 | 119 | 491 | 90 | 47 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 13.6% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 2.87 | 3.94 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 23 | 119 | 491 | 90 | 47 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 1.0% | 2.87 | 3.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 22 | 0 | 29 | 141 | 34 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.36 | 6.00 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TB | 79 | 0 | 83 | 352 | 42 | 47 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.9% | 13.3% | -1.3% | 2.6% | 5.56 | 5.56 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.9% | 13.3% | -1.3% | 2.6% | 5.56 | 5.56 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TB | — | — | 113 | 493 | 76 | 62 | 15 | — | — | 15.4% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 6.03 | 5.67 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.9% | 13.3% | -1.3% | 2.6% | 5.56 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TB | 81 | 0 | 85 | 361 | 52 | 44 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.4% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.31 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TB | 82 | 0 | 86 | 365 | 58 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 5.12 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TB | 82 | 0 | 86 | 365 | 61 | 42 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 11.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 5.01 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TB | 81 | 0 | 85 | 360 | 61 | 41 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TB | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.4% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.31 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TB | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 38 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 5.12 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TB | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 49 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 11.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 5.01 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TB | 70 | 0 | 73 | 308 | 52 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.98 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 225 | 0 | 236 | 996 | 161 | 116 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 5.08 | 4.65 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 137 | 98 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 5.08 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 45 | 23 | 148 | 632 | 93 | 73 | 12 | 51% | 3.3 | 14.7% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.76 | 4.40 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 31 | 200 | 852 | 125 | 98 | 17 | 51% | 3.3 | 14.7% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.76 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Andrade (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.56 | 11.9% | 13.3% | 2.6% | — | 5.08 | 15.7% | 3.9% | 258 | -0.48 | — | — | — |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 89 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 87 |
| Axel Rios R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.57 | 13.1% | 13.5% | 1.6% | .333 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 3.2% | 97 | -0.56 | 3.45 | 153 | 87 |
| Chance Huff R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 85 |
| Cooper Adams R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 84 |
| Zach Mort R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 84 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 12.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .351 | 3.81 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 146 | -0.78 | 3.50 | 219 | 84 |
| Kyle Miller R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 12.1% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 164 | 84 |
| LJ Brewster R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.90 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 143 | 84 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 81 |
| Jacob Cravey R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.13 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 7.57 | 11.0% | -7.2% | 28 | +2.44 | 5.13 | 204 | 81 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2029 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 81 |
| Zach Willeman R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.55 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.6% | .296 | 5.10 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 108 | -0.45 | 4.15 | 264 | 80 |
| Tom Reisinger R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.25 | 12.1% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .381 | 6.70 | 10.3% | -5.6% | 47 | +1.45 | 5.25 | 110 | 80 |
| Channing Austin R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.43 | 15.0% | 15.6% | 1.1% | .304 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 38 | -0.85 | 3.58 | 109 | 80 |
| Félix Paulino R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.70 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .313 | 5.27 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 77 | +0.57 | 3.33 | 394 | 80 |
| Marco Camarena R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .365 | 3.81 | 8.4% | 0.9% | 73 | -0.72 | 3.81 | 142 | 79 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 79 |
| Ted Stuka R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 79 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 85 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 1.01 | 5.19 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Dakota Hudson ('24) | 6 | 92 | 15.0% | 11.1% | 0.91 | 4.25 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |