Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
32
16
103
426
94
25
11
50%
3.2
16.6%
6.8%
9.8%
3.3%
3.41
4.36
—
2026
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
32
16
103
426
94
25
11
50%
3.2
16.6%
6.8%
9.8%
3.3%
3.41
4.36
—
2026
23
MIXRAW
2 levels
32
16
103
426
94
25
11
50%
3.2
22.1%
5.9%
16.2%
2.6%
3.41
3.39
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
24
MLB
CWS
11
11
72
304
54
21
9
100%
6.5
17.7%
7.0%
10.6%
3.1%
4.57
4.57
+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
25
MLBMLE
CWS
15
15
94
396
75
28
12
100%
6.3
19.0%
7.0%
12.0%
3.1%
4.48
4.44
+0.5
2029
26
MLBMLE
CWS
15
15
94
396
78
28
12
100%
6.3
19.7%
7.0%
12.8%
3.1%
4.41
4.38
+0.6
2030
27
MLBMLE
CWS
14
14
92
391
77
28
12
100%
6.6
19.8%
7.1%
12.7%
3.1%
4.41
4.41
+0.5
2031
28
MLBMLE
CWS
14
14
90
379
75
27
12
100%
6.4
19.8%
7.3%
12.5%
3.2%
4.45
4.49
+0.4
2032
29
MLBMLE
CWS
13
13
86
362
71
27
12
100%
6.6
19.5%
7.5%
12.0%
3.4%
4.55
4.62
+0.3
2033
30
MLBMLE
CWS
13
13
81
340
65
26
12
100%
6.2
19.2%
7.8%
11.4%
3.6%
4.70
4.80
+0.1
2034
31
MLBMLE
CWS
12
12
75
318
66
23
12
100%
6.3
20.8%
7.3%
13.5%
3.8%
4.72
4.73
+0.1
2035
32
MLBMLE
CWS
11
11
70
294
60
23
12
100%
6.3
20.3%
7.7%
12.6%
4.0%
4.86
4.95
-0.0
2028
25
MLBCTX
CWS
6
6
40
169
32
12
5
100%
6.7
19.0%
7.0%
12.0%
3.1%
4.51
4.47
+0.2
2029
26
MLBCTX
CWS
10
10
62
262
52
18
8
100%
6.2
19.7%
7.0%
12.8%
3.1%
4.44
4.41
+0.4
2030
27
MLBCTX
CWS
11
11
71
300
59
21
9
100%
6.5
19.8%
7.1%
12.7%
3.2%
4.44
4.44
+0.4
2031
28
MLBCTX
CWS
12
12
75
317
63
23
10
100%
6.2
19.8%
7.3%
12.5%
3.3%
4.48
4.52
+0.4
2032
29
MLBCTX
CWS
12
12
75
317
62
24
11
100%
6.2
19.5%
7.5%
12.0%
3.4%
4.58
4.65
+0.2
2033
30
MLBCTX
CWS
11
11
72
304
58
24
11
100%
6.5
19.2%
7.8%
11.4%
3.6%
4.73
4.83
+0.1
2034
31
MLBCTX
CWS
11
11
69
291
61
21
11
100%
6.3
20.8%
7.3%
13.5%
3.8%
4.76
4.77
+0.1
2035
32
MLBCTX
CWS
10
10
64
270
55
21
11
100%
6.4
20.3%
7.7%
12.6%
4.1%
4.90
4.99
-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
82
82
530
2237
443
165
78
100%
6.5
19.8%
7.4%
12.4%
3.5%
4.61
4.26
+4.0
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
31
31
200
844
167
62
29
100%
6.4
19.8%
7.4%
12.4%
3.5%
4.61
4.26
+1.5
Career
—
MLE
32
16
103
426
71
29
14
50%
3.2
16.6%
6.8%
9.8%
3.3%
3.41
4.36
+2.5
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
62
31
200
827
137
56
27
50%
3.2
16.6%
6.8%
9.8%
3.3%
3.41
4.36
+0.7
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.