Sean Matson

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 221 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	28	7	87	2.08	2.42	27.6%	7.8%	—	K 20.6% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.26
2026	24	MIX3 levels	36	5	70	7.23	5.11	22.3%	10.5%	—	K 17.2% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.49
2027PROJ	25	MLBCLE	67	0	70	5.01	5.01	18.3%	10.5%	-0.4
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCLE	32	0	34	4.91	4.89	19.4%	10.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCLE	47	0	49	4.88	4.88	19.7%	10.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsEmmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Jarret Whorff (age 25) · Derek Gordon (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%18.3%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	87	348	96	27	4	25%	3.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	1.4%	2.08	3.26	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	87	348	96	27	4	25%	3.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.6%	1.4%	2.08	3.26	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	7	87	348	96	27	4	25%	3.1	27.6%	7.8%	19.8%	1.1%	2.08	2.42	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	5	70	323	72	34	14	14%	1.9	17.2%	12.3%	5.0%	4.2%	7.23	5.49	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	5	70	323	72	34	14	14%	1.9	17.2%	12.3%	5.0%	4.2%	7.23	5.49	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	5	70	323	72	34	14	14%	1.9	22.3%	10.5%	11.8%	4.3%	7.23	5.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CLE	67	0	70	296	54	31	9	0%	1.0	18.3%	10.5%	7.8%	3.2%	5.01	5.01	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CLE	74	0	78	329	64	34	10	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	3.2%	4.91	4.89	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	CLE	73	0	77	324	64	33	10	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.2%	4.88	4.88	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	CLE	71	0	74	315	62	33	10	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	3.3%	4.90	4.94	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	CLE	68	0	71	300	59	32	10	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.6%	9.0%	3.4%	4.99	5.05	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	CLE	64	0	67	282	54	31	10	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.9%	8.3%	3.6%	5.14	5.23	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	CLE	32	0	34	144	28	15	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	3.2%	4.91	4.89	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CLE	47	0	49	207	41	21	7	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.2%	4.88	4.88	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CLE	53	0	56	236	47	25	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	3.3%	4.90	4.94	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	CLE	55	0	58	245	48	26	8	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.6%	9.0%	3.4%	4.99	5.05	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	CLE	54	0	57	241	46	26	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.9%	8.3%	3.6%	5.14	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		242	0	255	1075	210	113	36	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	3.4%	4.97	4.63	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	89	28	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.5%	9.0%	3.4%	4.97	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		64	12	156	671	127	71	18	19%	2.4	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	2.7%	4.38	4.34	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	15	200	858	163	91	23	19%	2.4	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	2.7%	4.38	4.34	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Matson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	18.3%	10.5%	3.2%	—	4.90	19.6%	9.3%	229	-0.11	—	—	—
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	90
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	90
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	89
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	89
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	88
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	87
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	87
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	86
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	86
Adam Warren R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	19.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.306	3.43	20.5%	13.1%	275	-0.66	2.65	548	85
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	84
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	83
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	83
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	83
Seth McGarry R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	17.1%	9.6%	3.2%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	261	83
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	83
Daniel Blair R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	17.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	171	83
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	83
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	83
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	73	19.3%	10.5%	1.28	4.97
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*