Player 822179 — OGILVIE

Player 8221791B DSL Arizona Black

Age — —/— ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .303 / .268

PA76

HR0

K%27

BB%9

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	—	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	75	53	14	2	0	0	13	11	8	16	0	264	473	302	775	38	326	15	17	378	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	—	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	75	57	10	1	0	0	9	13	8	16	0	175	365	193	558	18	218	17	12	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	—	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	75	57	10	1	0	0	9	13	8	16	0	175	365	193	558	18	222	17	12	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	—	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	75	53	14	2	0	0	13	11	8	16	0	264	473	302	775	38	326	15	17	378	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	75	58	10	1	0	0	9	13	8	16	0	172	365	190	555	17	218	17	12	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	25	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	75	58	10	1	0	0	9	13	8	16	0	172	365	190	555	17	218	17	12	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	200	174	36	5	1	1	17	54	7	9	1	208	305	270	576	62	290	27	8	271	69	-7	+1	+0	-4	+4	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	131	115	25	4	1	1	11	35	4	6	0	210	306	279	585	69	290	27	8	274	71	-4	+1	+0	-2	+3	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	216	311	290	601	74	299	—	—	280	71	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	282	238	48	7	1	1	27	68	15	25	0	202	321	252	574	50	275	24	10	272	70	-7	+2	+0	-4	+4	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	549	110	16	2	2	62	157	35	58	0	200	321	248	569	47	273	24	10	272	70	-23	+6	+0	-12	+14	-1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tony Gwynn Jr.last yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,749 PA	2.6	1,749	7	77	239	310	313	+1	+35	4.1	4.1
/162	664	3	29	+0.5	+13.1	1.6	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Travis Jankowskilast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,718 PA	2.6	1,718	11	100	238	321	309	-9	+11	2.1	2.5
/162	664	4	39	-3.6	+4.2	0.8	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.3	207	1	9	210	303	277	-3	+0	-0.2	-0.1
/162	664	4	30	-8.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Player 822179 (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	206/303/268	62	290	0	3	27%	9%	69	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Kokx 2024 · AA	24	44	39→40	54→60	48	209/298/296	87	286	6	23	27%	9%	73	-0.6	216/293/300	84	304	6	22	29%	7%	72	-0.7	199/279/224	26	297	0	37	30%	5%	46	-0.5
✕Taylor Young 2024 · A	25	45→44	40→30	62→60	52	211/305/301	90	285	7	32	26%	10%	76	-0.4	208/285/280	72	282	4	32	26%	8%	63	-1.3	210/286/275	65	281	4	33	24%	8%	60	-1.3
✕Chris Rotondo 2024 · A	25	44→40	41→45	57→50	45	204/294/311	108	309	7	12	33%	9%	75	-0.5	207/276/301	94	329	8	13	37%	7%	65	-1.2	194/256/265	71	324	7	16	40%	6%	46	-1.6
✕Willie Argo 2014 · A	24	50→37	39→40	57→55	45	231/305/320	88	335	5	27	30%	8%	80	-0.1	205/288/279	74	293	5	21	29%	9%	65	-1.2	167/246/249	81	243	8	21	32%	8%	42	-1.9
✕Tanner Kirwer 2021 · A	25	45	38→40	56→60	40	209/275/285	76	314	5	19	33%	7%	61	-1.5	207/286/305	98	294	11	33	31%	8%	70	-0.8	193/276/279	86	273	10	41	31%	8%	58	-0.9
✕Max George 2021 · A	25	40→39	41→45	54→55	43	195/279/295	99	285	9	20	32%	8%	65	-1.2	193/280/317	124	321	13	15	41%	8%	72	-0.7	149/258/287	138	249	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Nate Eaton 2022 · A	25	40→49	40→45	55→60	43	194/260/285	90	269	7	19	29%	7%	55	-1.9	215/270/336	121	283	13	28	28%	6%	70	-0.8	210/267/331	121	274	12	27	27%	6%	67	-0.8
✕Josh Prince 2013 · AA	25	46	39→40	54→60	47	221/279/306	85	282	5	29	23%	7%	67	-1.1	210/281/301	91	275	8	28	25%	8%	67	-1.1	213/287/292	79	281	7	28	25%	9%	64	-0.6
✕Donta' Williams 2023 · A	24	43→34	39→40	56→55	47	200/283/291	91	291	6	21	31%	9%	65	-1.2	186/272/268	82	283	5	20	33%	9%	57	-1.8	166/256/236	71	255	5	20	33%	9%	42	-1.2
✕Niko Decolati 2023 · AA	25	44→46	40→45	54→55	43	211/279/300	89	305	8	21	32%	8%	65	-1.2	209/301/293	84	310	6	16	31%	9%	74	-0.6	202/314/273	72	299	5	18	30%	11%	73	-0.3
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	40	39→45	53→55	40	192/250/279	87	274	5	16	31%	6%	50	-2.3	189/266/297	108	285	10	16	35%	8%	61	-1.5	173/257/287	114	273	12	16	38%	8%	54	-1.2
✕Maddux Houghton 2024 · A	25	40	40	58→55	40	183/258/275	92	312	6	20	40%	8%	53	-2.1	187/253/288	101	310	9	22	40%	7%	53	-2.1	172/236/273	102	283	10	28	40%	6%	41	-1.3
✕River Town 2024 · A	25	44→38	42→40	54→50	49	216/299/317	102	268	10	18	22%	8%	78	-0.3	215/304/301	86	265	6	11	20%	9%	76	-0.4	191/302/252	61	231	2	5	16%	11%	65	-0.5
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	45→51	39→40	59→65	42	216/267/304	87	290	6	32	27%	6%	61	-1.5	198/255/279	81	303	6	17	34%	7%	51	-2.2	161/226/226	65	269	3	12	38%	7%	27	-1.9
✕Rob Henry 2019 · A	24	42	37→40	54→55	49	196/289/273	77	284	4	18	30%	10%	64	-1.3	185/270/264	79	327	6	12	41%	8%	55	-1.9	149/243/213	64	290	6	12	46%	8%	31	-2.4
✕Roberto Caro 2019 · AA	25	49→40	38→40	59→60	44	223/292/309	86	325	3	26	30%	8%	72	-0.7	210/276/287	77	297	4	25	28%	8%	61	-1.5	187/258/246	59	266	2	31	28%	8%	45	-2.0
✕Jacob Zanon 2019 · A	24	41→36	36→40	53→55	43	192/251/261	69	267	2	22	27%	7%	46	-2.6	194/247/274	80	279	6	15	31%	6%	47	-2.5	177/228/250	73	254	7	15	32%	6%	34	-2.7
✕Danny Payne 2011 · A	25	39→41	41→45	55→50	48	190/277/293	103	282	8	19	33%	10%	64	-1.3	198/279/320	122	314	11	14	37%	10%	71	-0.8	175/269/315	140	286	13	11	40%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2009 · AAA	25	45	38→40	58→55	41	210/273/282	72	311	6	26	32%	7%	59	-1.6	238/282/325	87	315	5	20	25%	5%	72	-0.7	252/292/334	82	326	4	20	23%	5%	74	-0.2
✕J.T. Arruda 2023 · A	25	42	40	56→55	47	200/275/295	95	290	7	17	31%	9%	63	-1.4	204/275/290	86	289	6	20	29%	8%	62	-1.4	207/270/292	85	284	7	22	28%	7%	58	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps