Jhojan Downer — OGILVIE

Jhojan DownerC ACL Padres

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION132 act + 13 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.083 / .154 / .083

PA13

HR0

K%38

BB%8

BABIP278

ISO63

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	98	78	12	2	0	0	18	33	1	3	2	154	320	179	499	26	261	34	18	254	58	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	168	134	26	6	1	0	29	40	3	9	4	194	349	254	603	60	274	24	17	291	83	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	98	85	8	1	0	0	11	49	1	3	2	94	206	106	312	12	198	50	11	156	-8	-13	-0	—	—	+2	-1.1
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	168	146	18	3	1	0	17	59	3	9	4	123	229	158	386	34	195	35	10	183	10	-18	+0	—	—	+4	-1.4
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	98	85	8	1	0	0	11	49	1	3	2	94	206	106	312	12	216	50	11	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	98	78	12	2	0	0	18	33	1	3	2	154	320	179	499	26	261	34	18	254	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	168	146	18	3	1	0	17	59	3	9	4	123	229	158	386	34	205	35	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	168	134	26	6	1	0	29	40	3	9	4	194	349	254	603	60	274	24	17	291	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	98	86	8	1	0	0	11	49	1	3	2	93	206	105	311	12	198	50	11	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	168	146	18	3	1	0	17	59	3	9	4	123	229	158	386	34	195	35	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	98	86	8	1	0	0	11	49	1	3	2	93	206	105	311	12	198	50	11	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	168	146	18	3	1	0	17	59	3	9	4	123	229	158	386	34	195	35	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	SD	—	132	116	18	4	0	0	15	66	1	6	3	155	258	190	447	34	360	50	11	215	32	-11	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	SD	—	132	107	28	7	0	0	24	46	1	6	3	262	402	327	729	65	459	35	18	344	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	SD	0%	13	12	1	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	83	154	83	237		281	38	8	230	42	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	SD	—	145	128	19	4	0	0	16	71	1	6	3	148	248	180	428	31	333	49	11	216	33	-12	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SD	34%	225	200	37	7	1	2	21	78	2	4	1	185	269	260	529	75	285	35	9	247	53	-13	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	48%	352	312	60	11	2	5	33	118	4	7	2	192	278	288	566	96	287	34	9	258	61	-16	+1	+0	+6	+8	-0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	SD	54%	443	393	78	15	2	7	42	145	5	8	3	198	284	300	584	102	288	33	9	265	66	-18	+0	+0	+8	+10	-0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	SD	57%	504	446	89	17	2	8	48	163	5	10	3	200	285	300	585	101	289	32	10	270	69	-19	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	SD	57%	520	460	93	18	2	9	49	167	6	10	3	202	287	309	596	107	290	32	9	272	70	-18	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	SD	57%	520	459	93	18	2	9	50	167	6	10	3	203	289	309	599	107	290	32	10	274	71	-18	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	SD	56%	520	459	94	18	2	10	50	167	6	10	3	205	291	318	609	113	290	32	10	274	72	-17	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	SD	55%	520	459	92	17	2	10	50	167	6	10	3	200	287	312	599	111	290	32	10	274	72	-17	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	SD	55%	520	458	91	17	2	9	51	168	6	10	3	199	287	303	591	105	289	32	10	273	71	-18	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	SD	58%	520	458	91	17	2	9	51	169	6	9	3	199	287	303	591	105	288	32	10	271	70	-19	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.1
2037	30	MLB MLE	SD	60%	520	458	91	17	2	9	51	170	6	9	3	199	287	303	591	105	287	33	10	269	68	-20	+1	-2	+9	+11	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	SD	34%	77	69	12	2	0	1	7	27	1	1	0	174	260	246	506	72	282	35	9	238	53	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	48%	171	151	28	5	1	2	16	57	2	3	1	185	272	272	544	86	284	33	9	249	61	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	SD	54%	240	212	42	8	1	4	23	78	3	5	2	198	286	302	588	104	285	32	10	256	66	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	SD	57%	285	253	50	9	1	5	27	92	3	5	2	198	283	300	583	103	286	32	9	261	69	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	SD	57%	294	261	52	10	1	5	28	95	3	6	2	199	284	303	587	103	287	32	10	263	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	SD	57%	294	261	52	10	1	5	28	94	3	6	2	199	284	303	587	103	287	32	10	264	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	SD	56%	294	261	53	10	1	6	28	94	3	6	2	203	288	318	606	115	287	32	10	265	72	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	SD	55%	288	255	50	9	1	5	28	93	3	5	2	196	283	298	581	102	287	32	10	265	72	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	SD	55%	285	252	49	9	1	5	28	92	3	5	2	194	283	298	580	103	286	32	10	264	71	-10	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	SD	58%	302	266	52	10	1	5	30	98	3	5	2	195	284	297	581	102	285	32	10	262	70	-11	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	SD	60%	313	276	53	10	1	5	31	103	3	5	2	192	281	290	571	98	284	33	10	260	68	-12	+0	-1	+6	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2843	2517	493	92	10	48	274	923	30	52	19	196	283	298	580	102	286	32	10	261	65	-105	+3	-2	+51	+62	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	112	21	2	11	63	211	7	12	4	195	282	296	578	101	284	32	10	261	65	-24	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5443	4805	936	176	22	87	525	1792	62	109	36	195	282	295	577	100	287	33	10	265	65	-194	+7	-4	+92	+112	1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	112	21	3	10	63	214	7	13	4	195	283	294	577	99	288	33	10	265	65	-24	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.5	2,984	49	55	199	282	302	+53	+28	2.4	2.4
/162	664	11	12	+11.9	+6.2	0.5	pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jhojan Downer (OGILVIE)	19	25	20	50	60	171/256/227	56	281	1	3	36%	9%	42	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	45	-2.7	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	49	-2.4	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	56	-0.6
✕Alfredo González 2011 · A	19	41	36→30	48→45	43	193/257/263	71	277	3	9	30%	7%	49	-2.4	184/230/252	68	247	3	9	26%	5%	36	-3.4	224/284/281	57	304	4	8	26%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Kleiber Rodriguez 2018 · A	19	37	35→30	46→40	46	175/250/234	59	244	2	5	27%	8%	40	-3.0	219/280/288	69	282	3	5	21%	7%	63	-1.4	240/298/301	61	284	2	4	15%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Jose Sanabria 2022 · A	19	39	36→30	44→50	42	183/260/245	62	273	3	10	32%	7%	47	-2.5	202/275/260	58	305	3	10	31%	8%	55	-1.9	194/267/240	47	293	2	11	32%	9%	46	-1.2
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	42→41	34→30	51→50	42	199/262/249	50	277	2	16	28%	6%	47	-2.5	210/309/255	45	289	1	19	25%	11%	68	-1.0	195/321/224	30	275	1	24	25%	14%	65	-0.5
✕Daniel Santos 2018 · A	19	37	36→45	46→40	43	178/255/242	64	250	3	6	28%	7%	45	-2.7	197/260/282	85	284	6	6	31%	6%	55	-2.0	186/247/273	87	269	7	4	31%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Marco Guzman 2014 · A	19	39	36→45	44→50	48	185/262/256	71	249	3	8	25%	9%	50	-2.3	207/264/294	87	251	5	7	19%	7%	58	-1.7	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Ozziel Sanchez-Galan 2017 · A	19	38	36→30	50	47	180/266/243	63	253	3	10	28%	9%	49	-2.4	196/266/277	81	293	4	7	32%	7%	55	-1.9	175/243/259	84	266	3	3	33%	6%	40	-0.8
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2017 · A	18	37	35→40	51→60	40	176/238/231	55	271	2	17	34%	7%	34	-3.5	204/268/282	78	293	5	21	30%	8%	57	-1.8	193/264/273	80	285	7	32	32%	8%	52	-0.7
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	41→37	38→45	47→55	49	191/288/272	81	291	5	8	32%	10%	64	-1.3	194/290/296	102	287	9	14	33%	10%	70	-0.8	175/281/296	121	259	13	27	34%	10%	66	-0.9
✕Luis Cruz 2012 · A	19	39	35→40	43→45	42	186/235/238	52	254	2	5	27%	6%	34	-3.5	220/272/314	94	275	9	5	22%	5%	65	-1.2	224/271/298	73	297	6	3	25%	4%	59	-0.7
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	42	-2.9	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	40	-3.0	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	17	-1.4
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2018 · A	19	36	37→40	46→50	43	170/272/245	75	268	5	9	35%	8%	53	-2.1	177/263/273	96	284	8	9	38%	7%	55	-1.9	147/225/231	84	286	8	19	48%	6%	29	-1.2
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	288	5	7	31%	8%	58	-1.7	194/291/271	77	319	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	158/267/223	66	272	6	3	39%	10%	45	-1.1
✕Roberto Espinoza 2008 · A	19	36	37→30	47→40	45	174/262/241	67	268	5	7	34%	9%	47	-2.5	185/258/246	61	284	4	5	33%	8%	46	-2.6	175/248/217	42	257	2	2	30%	8%	34	-1.1
✕Oswaldo Linares 2022 · A	19	42	36→40	47→40	55	196/303/262	65	273	4	8	27%	12%	68	-1.0	197/297/284	87	275	8	5	28%	11%	70	-0.8	175/284/254	79	245	9	2	29%	12%	58	-0.6
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	52	-2.2	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	68	-1.0	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Adonis Paula 2013 · A	19	37	37→40	48→40	35	180/236/252	72	281	4	8	36%	5%	38	-3.2	196/258/274	78	286	4	5	31%	6%	52	-2.2	178/237/252	75	274	4	2	34%	6%	37	-1.1
✕Jose Cabello 2016 · A	19	38	34→30	44→45	43	180/243/231	51	244	2	4	26%	6%	36	-3.3	203/281/264	61	261	3	6	21%	8%	59	-1.7	205/287/242	38	250	0	5	16%	8%	55	-0.7
✕Andrew Caraballo 2019 · A	19	39	36→40	44→40	51	179/281/251	73	268	2	5	31%	11%	57	-1.8	181/252/259	78	304	5	8	38%	8%	47	-2.6	123/164/192	70	240	7	15	50%	5%	-6	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps