Jhojan Downer — OGILVIE

Jhojan DownerC ACL Padres

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION121 act + 80 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†33

AVG/OBP/SLG.153 / .248 / .181

PA80

HR0

K%36

BB%10

BABIP258

ISO28

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.3M
2037	Arb-3	$7M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	98	86	7	1	0	0	10	50	1	3	2	81	186	93	279	12	189	51	10	151	-26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	98	78	12	2	0	0	18	33	1	3	2	154	320	179	499	26	261	34	18	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	168	147	17	3	1	0	16	61	3	9	4	116	217	150	367	34	195	36	10	171	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	168	134	26	6	1	0	29	40	3	9	4	194	349	254	603	60	274	24	17	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	SD	—	121	106	16	4	0	0	14	62	1	6	2	151	256	189	445	38	364	51	12	216	24	-10	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.5
YTD	19	ROK	SD	—	121	97	25	7	0	0	23	43	1	6	2	258	405	330	735	72	463	36	19	348	124	+3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.9
ROS	19	ROK	SD	0%	80	71	11	2	0	0	8	29	1	2	1	153	248	181	429	28	280	36	10	229	33	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
ROS	19	MLB	SD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		276	—	—	220	27	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	SD	—	121	107	16	4	0	0	14	62	1	6	2	150	256	187	443	37	356	51	12	216	24	-10	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.5
TOT	19	ROK	SD	—	201	177	27	6	0	0	22	91	2	8	3	152	253	186	439	34	312	45	11	221	27	-17	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	SD	34%	245	217	40	8	1	2	23	85	3	5	1	184	272	258	530	74	284	35	9	246	46	-15	+1	+0	+4	+7	-0.3
2028	21	MLB	SD	48%	367	325	63	12	2	5	35	124	4	7	2	194	280	289	569	95	286	34	10	257	55	-19	+1	+0	+7	+10	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	SD	54%	454	403	78	15	2	7	43	150	5	9	3	194	279	293	572	99	287	33	9	264	61	-20	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.1
2030	23	MLB	SD	57%	511	452	89	17	2	8	48	166	6	10	3	197	283	296	579	100	288	32	9	269	64	-21	+1	+0	+9	+14	0.4
2031	24	MLB	SD	57%	520	459	92	18	2	9	50	169	6	10	3	200	287	307	595	107	289	32	10	271	66	-20	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.5
2032	25	MLB	SD	57%	520	459	92	18	2	9	50	168	6	10	3	200	287	307	595	107	289	32	10	273	67	-20	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.5
2033	26	MLB	SD	56%	520	459	92	18	2	9	50	168	6	10	3	200	287	307	595	107	289	32	10	273	67	-19	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.6
2034	27	MLB	SD	55%	520	459	92	18	2	9	50	169	6	10	3	200	287	307	595	107	289	32	10	273	67	-19	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.6
2035	28	MLB	SD	55%	520	458	90	17	2	9	51	169	6	10	3	197	285	301	587	105	288	32	10	272	67	-20	+1	-1	+9	+15	0.5
2036	29	MLB	SD	58%	520	458	90	17	2	9	51	171	6	9	3	197	285	301	587	105	287	33	10	270	65	-21	+1	-1	+9	+15	0.3
2037	30	MLB	SD	60%	520	458	90	17	2	9	51	172	6	9	3	197	285	301	587	105	286	33	10	268	63	-22	+1	-2	+9	+15	0.1
2027	20	MLB	SD	34%	84	75	14	3	0	1	8	29	1	2	0	187	274	267	540	80	281	35	10	236	39	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	SD	48%	178	157	30	6	1	2	17	60	2	3	1	191	278	280	559	89	282	34	10	246	47	-11	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
2029	22	MLB	SD	54%	246	218	42	8	1	4	23	81	3	5	1	193	279	294	572	101	284	33	9	253	52	-13	+1	+0	+4	+7	-0.1
2030	23	MLB	SD	57%	289	257	51	10	1	5	27	94	3	5	2	198	282	304	586	105	285	33	9	258	55	-15	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.1
2031	24	MLB	SD	57%	294	261	51	10	1	5	28	95	3	6	2	195	281	299	580	103	286	32	10	260	57	-14	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.0
2032	25	MLB	SD	57%	294	261	51	10	1	5	28	95	3	6	2	195	281	299	580	103	286	32	10	261	58	-14	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.0
2033	26	MLB	SD	56%	294	261	51	10	1	5	28	95	3	6	2	195	281	299	580	103	286	32	10	262	58	-14	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
2034	27	MLB	SD	55%	288	255	49	9	1	5	28	93	3	5	2	192	280	294	574	102	285	32	10	262	58	-14	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.0
2035	28	MLB	SD	55%	285	252	49	9	1	5	28	93	3	5	2	194	283	298	580	103	285	33	10	261	58	-14	+0	-0	+5	+8	-0.1
2036	29	MLB	SD	58%	302	266	52	10	1	5	30	99	3	5	2	195	284	297	581	102	284	33	10	259	56	-15	+0	-1	+5	+9	-0.2
2037	30	MLB	SD	60%	313	276	53	10	1	5	31	103	3	5	2	192	281	290	571	98	282	33	10	256	54	-16	+0	-1	+6	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2867	2540	493	95	10	47	276	937	30	53	18	194	281	295	576	101	284	33	10	258	55	-145	+3	-2	+51	+81	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	112	22	2	11	63	212	7	12	4	194	282	297	579	102	284	33	10	258	55	-33	+1	-1	+12	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	5563	4911	943	181	22	85	536	1851	65	113	37	192	280	290	570	98	285	33	10	263	59	-256	+8	-4	+99	+158	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	111	21	3	10	63	216	8	13	4	193	283	293	575	99	287	33	10	263	59	-30	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	98	78	12	2	0	0	18	33	1	3	2	154	320	179	499	26	261	34	18	254	53	-5	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	168	134	26	6	1	0	29	40	3	9	4	194	349	254	603	60	274	24	17	291	81	-4	+0	—	—	+5	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	9	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
	/162	664	4	15	234	295	315	+6.9	+19.7	2.5	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,021	49	56	197	281	300	+54	+28	1.5	1.7
	/162	664	11	12	197	281	300	+11.9	+6.2	0.3	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jhojan Downer (OGILVIE)	19	25	20	50	60	152/253/186	34	312	0	8	45%	11%	27	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	37	-2.6	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	42	-2.3	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Kleiber Rodriguez 2018 · A	19	37	35→30	46→40	46	175/250/234	59	244	2	5	27%	8%	33	-2.9	219/280/288	69	282	3	5	21%	7%	58	-1.2	240/298/301	61	284	2	4	15%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	41→44	34→30	51→55	42	194/257/244	49	275	2	16	28%	6%	37	-2.6	213/312/258	45	291	1	19	24%	11%	66	-0.6	202/327/232	30	283	1	24	24%	14%	65	-0.3
✕Jose Sanabria 2022 · A	19	39	35→30	44→50	41	183/258/245	61	277	3	10	32%	7%	39	-2.5	200/274/259	59	305	3	10	32%	8%	49	-1.8	190/266/236	46	290	2	11	32%	9%	37	-1.2
✕Daniel Santos 2018 · A	19	37	36→45	46→40	43	178/255/242	64	250	3	6	28%	7%	37	-2.6	197/260/282	85	284	6	6	31%	6%	49	-1.8	186/247/273	87	269	7	4	31%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Alfredo González 2011 · A	19	41	36→40	48→45	43	193/257/263	71	277	3	9	30%	7%	42	-2.3	184/230/252	68	247	3	9	26%	5%	27	-3.3	220/279/277	58	303	4	8	27%	7%	52	-0.5
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2017 · A	18	37	35→40	51→60	40	176/238/231	55	271	2	17	34%	7%	25	-3.5	204/268/282	78	293	5	21	30%	8%	52	-1.6	192/263/269	77	285	7	32	32%	8%	44	-0.7
✕Christian Cerda 2022 · A	19	39→37	38→40	48→40	47	187/266/269	83	245	4	8	24%	8%	49	-1.8	193/286/294	101	260	9	6	27%	11%	63	-0.8	179/279/276	97	240	10	4	28%	12%	55	-0.8
✕Ozziel Sanchez-Galan 2017 · A	19	38	36→30	50	47	180/266/243	63	253	3	10	28%	9%	42	-2.3	196/266/277	81	293	4	7	32%	7%	50	-1.8	175/243/259	84	266	3	3	33%	6%	32	-0.8
✕Marco Guzman 2014 · A	19	39	36→45	44→50	48	185/262/256	71	249	3	8	25%	9%	43	-2.2	207/264/294	87	251	5	7	19%	7%	53	-1.5	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	34	-2.8	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	33	-2.9	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	6	-1.4
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2018 · A	19	36	37→40	46→50	43	170/272/245	75	268	5	9	35%	8%	47	-1.9	177/263/273	96	284	8	9	38%	7%	50	-1.8	145/224/227	82	287	8	19	48%	6%	18	-1.3
✕Luis Cruz 2012 · A	19	39	35→40	43→45	42	186/235/238	52	254	2	5	27%	6%	25	-3.5	220/272/314	94	275	9	5	22%	5%	61	-1.0	227/272/301	75	302	6	3	26%	4%	56	-0.5
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	41→37	38→45	47→55	49	191/290/273	82	290	5	8	32%	11%	61	-1.0	192/289/292	100	287	9	14	33%	10%	65	-0.7	175/282/297	122	265	13	26	36%	10%	62	-0.6
✕Oswaldo Linares 2022 · A	19	42	36→40	47→40	54	195/298/259	64	275	4	8	28%	12%	60	-1.0	196/296/284	88	277	8	5	29%	11%	66	-0.6	173/283/253	79	246	9	2	30%	12%	51	-0.6
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	287	5	7	30%	8%	53	-1.5	193/290/269	76	317	6	5	37%	9%	60	-1.0	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Roberto Espinoza 2008 · A	19	36	37→30	47→40	45	174/262/241	67	268	5	7	34%	9%	40	-2.4	185/258/246	61	284	4	5	33%	8%	39	-2.5	175/248/217	42	257	2	2	30%	8%	25	-1.1
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Adonis Paula 2013 · A	19	37	37→40	48→40	35	180/236/252	72	281	4	8	36%	5%	30	-3.1	196/258/274	78	286	4	5	31%	6%	46	-2.0	177/237/252	75	275	4	2	35%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Marco Soto 2022 · A	18	41	36→30	52→50	41	195/262/260	64	278	3	10	29%	6%	44	-2.1	202/257/256	54	271	2	8	25%	5%	40	-2.4	184/237/220	36	252	1	8	26%	5%	21	-0.9