Jhojan Downer — OGILVIE

Jhojan DownerC DSL Padres Gold

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK HR +13%BB +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 2.8 · 2034

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .273 / .287

PA140

HR2

K%31

BB%9

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

25→25

PWR

20→20

SPD

50→50

EYE

56↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.8peak

2034

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.7	$26M	+$25M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.7	$27M	+$26M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.8	$28M	+$27M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.6	$27M	+$22M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.5	$27M	+$19M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+2.3	$25M	+$15M
Totals		$27M		$160M	+$133M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	98	85	7	1	0	0	11	50	1	3	2	.082	.196	.094	.290	.012	.194	51	11	.153	-25	-14	-0	+0	+2	+3	-1.0
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	168	147	17	3	1	0	16	61	3	9	4	.116	.217	.150	.367	.034	.195	36	10	.171	-11	-21	+0	+0	+3	+5	-1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	SD	140	126	24	4	1	2	12	44	1	2	1	.190	.266	.286	.552	.095	.280	31	9	.259	56	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 11%	SD	225	198	42	8	1	4	22	66	3	5	1	.212	.300	.323	.624	.111	.288	29	10	.284	75	-6	+1	+0	+4	+6	0.5
2028	21	MLB 28%	SD	352	309	67	12	2	8	36	99	4	8	2	.217	.307	.346	.653	.129	.290	28	10	.296	85	-6	+1	+0	+6	+10	1.1
2029	22	MLB 48%	SD	443	388	86	15	3	11	46	120	6	9	2	.222	.314	.361	.674	.139	.291	27	10	.305	91	-4	+1	+0	+8	+13	1.7
2030	23	MLB 65%	SD	504	439	100	18	3	13	54	134	6	10	2	.228	.321	.371	.692	.144	.291	27	11	.311	96	-2	+1	+0	+9	+14	2.3
2031	24	MLB 82%	SD	520	452	103	18	3	14	57	137	6	10	2	.228	.322	.374	.696	.146	.291	26	11	.315	99	-0	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.5
2032	25	MLB	SD	520	450	104	18	3	15	58	136	7	10	2	.231	.328	.384	.713	.153	.292	26	11	.318	102	+1	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.7
2033	26	MLB	SD	520	449	104	18	3	15	59	136	7	10	2	.232	.330	.385	.715	.154	.292	26	11	.320	103	+2	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.7
2034	27	MLB	SD	520	448	103	18	3	15	60	136	7	10	2	.230	.330	.384	.714	.154	.292	26	12	.320	103	+2	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.8
2035	28	MLB	SD	520	448	103	18	3	15	60	137	7	9	1	.230	.330	.384	.714	.154	.292	26	12	.319	102	+1	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.6
2036	29	MLB	SD	520	449	102	18	3	14	60	139	6	9	1	.227	.326	.374	.700	.147	.291	27	12	.317	100	+0	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.5
2037	30	MLB	SD	520	449	101	18	3	14	60	141	6	9	1	.225	.324	.372	.696	.147	.290	27	12	.314	98	-1	+1	-2	+9	+15	2.3
2038	31	MLB	SD	504	435	97	17	3	13	58	138	6	8	0	.223	.323	.366	.688	.143	.288	27	12	.310	95	-3	+2	-3	+9	+14	2.0
2039	32	MLB	SD	489	423	91	16	2	12	57	137	6	7	0	.215	.317	.348	.664	.132	.287	28	12	.305	92	-5	+1	-4	+9	+14	1.6
2040	33	MLB	SD	454	394	83	14	2	11	52	130	5	6	0	.211	.310	.340	.651	.129	.285	29	11	.300	87	-6	+1	-4	+8	+13	1.2
2041	34	MLB	SD	398	344	72	12	2	9	46	117	5	6	0	.209	.311	.334	.646	.125	.283	29	12	.293	83	-8	+1	-5	+7	+11	0.7
2042	35	MLB	SD	337	292	59	10	2	7	38	103	4	5	0	.202	.302	.322	.624	.120	.281	31	11	.286	77	-9	+1	-6	+6	+10	0.2
2043	36	MLB	SD	276	240	47	8	1	5	31	87	3	4	0	.196	.296	.300	.596	.104	.278	32	11	.277	70	-9	+1	-6	+5	+8	-0.2
2044	37	MLB	SD	216	188	36	6	1	4	24	70	2	4	0	.191	.290	.298	.588	.106	.274	32	11	.267	63	-9	+1	-7	+4	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8244	7153	1548	270	45	201	917	2318	101	153	25	.216	.314	.351	.665	.135	.288	28	11	.301	89	-105	+21	-38	+147	+234	26.3
/ 162G	—			650	564	122	21	4	16	72	183	8	12	2	.216	.314	.353	.667	.137	.287	28	11	.301	89	-8	+2	-3	+12	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	98	78	12	2	0	0	18	33	1	3	2	.154	.320	.179	.499	.026	.261	34	18	.254	53	-5	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	168	134	26	6	1	0	29	40	3	9	4	.194	.349	.254	.603	.060	.274	24	17	.291	81	-4	+0	—	—	+5	0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jhojan Downer (OGILVIE)	19	25	20	50	60	.194/.273/.287	.093	.280	2	2	31%	9%	56	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	40	36→30	48→50	45	.190/.258/.255	.065	.266	4	12	28%	8%	41	-2.3	.207/.263/.250	.043	.259	1	14	19%	7%	40	-2.4	.233/.291/.254	.020	.278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	.199/.262/.281	.083	.258	5	7	24%	6%	50	-1.8	.211/.287/.284	.073	.267	5	9	21%	9%	61	-1.0	.221/.317/.274	.053	.274	5	10	19%	11%	69	-0.2
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	36	41→45	47→60	41	.181/.239/.272	.091	.247	9	13	30%	6%	37	-2.6	.219/.271/.301	.082	.284	7	20	24%	6%	57	-1.2	.234/.281/.297	.063	.300	5	24	23%	5%	58	-0.3
✕Jose Paez 2012 · A	18	36	36→45	50	41	.175/.242/.240	.065	.268	3	16	34%	7%	30	-3.1	.220/.268/.310	.090	.309	5	12	29%	5%	58	-1.2	.226/.270/.319	.093	.319	4	12	29%	5%	56	-0.4
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	42→36	38→45	47→60	48	.195/.289/.277	.082	.295	5	8	32%	10%	61	-1.0	.192/.285/.295	.103	.282	10	14	33%	9%	64	-0.8	.179/.278/.292	.113	.261	13	23	34%	9%	59	-0.8
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	42	42→45	47→50	43	.205/.277/.309	.104	.271	9	8	27%	6%	64	-0.8	.224/.284/.326	.102	.290	5	11	24%	5%	70	-0.3	.226/.280/.337	.111	.291	6	11	23%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A	19	39	35→30	49→55	44	.184/.249/.245	.061	.269	3	14	31%	8%	34	-2.8	.201/.291/.247	.046	.283	1	15	26%	10%	53	-1.5	.210/.308/.237	.027	.280	0	17	22%	11%	56	-0.4
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	40→45	47→45	45	.183/.271/.272	.089	.286	7	6	36%	10%	52	-1.6	.190/.265/.267	.077	.298	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	.182/.268/.267	.085	.274	6	3	33%	10%	48	-0.6
✕Roberto Espinoza 2008 · A	19	37	37→30	47→40	46	.178/.267/.247	.069	.272	5	7	33%	9%	44	-2.1	.186/.261/.248	.062	.278	4	5	32%	8%	41	-2.3	.179/.254/.223	.043	.256	2	2	28%	8%	29	-1.0
✕Nelson Quiroz 2021 · A	19	44	37→40	47→40	45	.209/.268/.279	.070	.271	5	6	24%	7%	50	-1.7	.224/.289/.327	.103	.275	7	5	20%	8%	72	-0.2	.253/.306/.321	.068	.288	2	0	12%	6%	73	-0.0
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2018 · A	19	36	37→40	47→50	43	.172/.272/.246	.075	.272	4	9	35%	8%	47	-1.9	.174/.261/.268	.094	.278	8	9	37%	7%	47	-1.9	.147/.225/.230	.082	.285	8	19	47%	6%	19	-1.2
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	.200/.272/.279	.079	.289	5	7	31%	8%	53	-1.5	.195/.291/.272	.077	.318	6	5	37%	9%	62	-0.9	.157/.266/.222	.065	.271	6	3	39%	10%	38	-1.1
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A	19	39	38→55	47→45	39	.185/.251/.256	.071	.289	6	6	36%	7%	39	-2.5	.226/.287/.352	.126	.291	13	7	26%	6%	79	+0.3	.248/.309/.417	.169	.290	19	6	21%	6%	103	+0.7
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2008 · A	19	38	39→45	47→50	37	.183/.243/.267	.084	.297	6	10	38%	7%	37	-2.6	.184/.274/.285	.101	.277	11	8	35%	9%	57	-1.2	.165/.268/.271	.106	.240	13	6	34%	10%	50	-0.6
✕Ameilis Carvajal 2009 · A	20	40	39→40	50	47	.189/.277/.272	.083	.292	6	12	34%	10%	54	-1.4	.193/.265/.266	.073	.318	4	10	37%	8%	46	-2.0	.140/.204/.175	.034	.267	0	8	44%	7%	-3	-1.2
✕Ricky Cabrera 2023 · A	18	43	38→45	48→60	37	.201/.274/.283	.082	.302	4	8	32%	5%	56	-1.3	.218/.294/.318	.100	.311	8	15	31%	6%	73	-0.1	.220/.298/.329	.109	.312	11	20	30%	6%	75	-0.0
✕Efrain Contreras 2006 · A	19	43	37→45	49→55	41	.203/.263/.279	.075	.288	4	8	30%	6%	49	-1.8	.223/.288/.330	.107	.269	10	12	21%	6%	73	-0.1	.225/.291/.340	.115	.260	12	15	18%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	40	44→55	39	.185/.250/.273	.088	.268	9	9	33%	6%	43	-2.2	.200/.257/.289	.089	.277	6	11	28%	6%	49	-1.8	.197/.256/.288	.091	.265	4	15	26%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	45	38→30	48→60	46	.214/.278/.298	.084	.285	5	12	26%	8%	60	-1.0	.216/.302/.277	.061	.288	3	24	23%	10%	66	-0.6	.216/.317/.260	.044	.285	1	34	22%	12%	65	-0.3
✕Miguel Moreno 2009 · A	19	38	39→40	42→40	47	.184/.273/.262	.078	.274	6	5	33%	10%	50	-1.7	.198/.280/.268	.070	.284	5	5	29%	9%	54	-1.4	.176/.264/.209	.033	.250	3	3	28%	10%	29	-0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)