Jheremy Vargas
SS Biloxi Shuckers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+MIL | 353 | .210/.305/.301 | 5 | 23 | 41 | — | .179/.254/.251 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+MIL | 354 | .217/.284/.233 | 0 | 13 | 29 | — | .200/.247/.212 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAMIL | 172 | .201/.315/.271 | 1 | 1 | 47 | — | .193/.280/.260 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBMIL | 2 | .197/.262/.247 | 0 | 0 | 48 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBMIL | 51 | .203/.268/.269 | 0 | 1 | 55 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBMIL | 99 | .207/.273/.283 | 1 | 2 | 60 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 174 | 135 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 42 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 230 | 385 | 333 | 718 | 104 | 302 | 24 | 17 | 329 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 314 | 257 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 49 | 80 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 179 | 326 | 245 | 571 | 66 | 246 | 25 | 16 | 279 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 38 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 250 | 368 | 406 | 775 | 156 | 368 | 32 | 16 | 352 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 64 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 312 | 276 | 588 | 34 | 350 | 28 | 9 | 275 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 187 | 157 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 33 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 236 | 358 | 306 | 664 | 70 | 298 | 18 | 15 | 314 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 309 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 54 | 4 | 23 | 8 | 210 | 305 | 301 | 606 | 91 | 238 | 15 | 11 | 281 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 321 | 291 | 64 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 65 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 220 | 288 | 234 | 522 | 14 | 281 | 20 | 8 | 246 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 33 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 242 | 226 | 468 | 32 | 240 | 18 | 6 | 218 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 172 | 144 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 201 | 315 | 271 | 586 | 69 | 241 | 17 | 12 | 273 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 174 | 145 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 60 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 172 | 290 | 248 | 538 | 76 | 248 | 34 | 11 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 314 | 270 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 36 | 111 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 137 | 256 | 181 | 437 | 44 | 219 | 35 | 11 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 38 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 147 | 237 | 265 | 502 | 118 | 283 | 45 | 11 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 64 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 250 | 233 | 483 | 33 | 328 | 38 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 187 | 165 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 45 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 182 | 278 | 230 | 508 | 48 | 246 | 24 | 11 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 319 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 69 | 4 | 23 | 8 | 179 | 254 | 251 | 504 | 72 | 212 | 20 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 321 | 299 | 61 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 204 | 254 | 214 | 468 | 10 | 281 | 26 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 33 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 156 | 182 | 188 | 369 | 31 | 214 | 24 | 3 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 172 | 150 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 193 | 280 | 260 | 540 | 67 | 228 | 20 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 174 | 145 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 60 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 172 | 290 | 248 | 538 | 76 | 261 | 34 | 11 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 174 | 135 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 42 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 230 | 385 | 333 | 718 | 104 | 302 | 24 | 17 | 329 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 352 | 304 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 129 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 138 | 254 | 191 | 444 | 53 | 225 | 37 | 11 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 352 | 289 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 55 | 92 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 187 | 330 | 263 | 593 | 76 | 258 | 26 | 16 | 287 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 251 | 225 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 69 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 187 | 271 | 231 | 502 | 44 | 269 | 27 | 10 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 251 | 215 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 51 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 237 | 347 | 298 | 644 | 60 | 311 | 20 | 14 | 304 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 319 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 69 | 4 | 23 | 8 | 179 | 254 | 251 | 504 | 72 | 214 | 20 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 309 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 54 | 4 | 23 | 8 | 210 | 305 | 301 | 606 | 91 | 238 | 15 | 11 | 281 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 354 | 330 | 66 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 93 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 200 | 250 | 212 | 462 | 12 | 276 | 26 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 354 | 322 | 70 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 71 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 217 | 284 | 233 | 517 | 16 | 277 | 20 | 8 | 244 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 172 | 150 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 193 | 280 | 260 | 540 | 67 | 241 | 20 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 172 | 144 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 201 | 315 | 271 | 586 | 69 | 241 | 17 | 12 | 273 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Blue | — | 174 | 148 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 60 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 169 | 290 | 243 | 533 | 74 | 248 | 34 | 11 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 352 | 302 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 129 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 139 | 254 | 192 | 446 | 53 | 226 | 37 | 11 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 251 | 223 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 69 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 188 | 271 | 233 | 504 | 45 | 267 | 27 | 10 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 318 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 69 | 4 | 23 | 8 | 179 | 254 | 252 | 505 | 72 | 212 | 20 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 354 | 329 | 66 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 93 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 201 | 250 | 213 | 463 | 12 | 275 | 26 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 172 | 152 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 191 | 280 | 257 | 536 | 66 | 228 | 20 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 318 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 69 | 4 | 23 | 8 | 179 | 254 | 252 | 505 | 72 | 212 | 20 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 354 | 329 | 66 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 93 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 201 | 250 | 213 | 463 | 12 | 275 | 26 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 172 | 152 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 191 | 280 | 257 | 536 | 66 | 228 | 20 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIL | 2% | 222 | 203 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 49 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 200 | 265 | 251 | 516 | 51 | 257 | 22 | 7 | 239 | 48 | -14 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIL | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 262 | 247 | 509 | 49 | 253 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 48 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIL | 31% | 164 | 149 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 205 | 271 | 272 | 542 | 66 | 259 | 22 | 7 | 250 | 55 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIL | 45% | 223 | 203 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 49 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 209 | 275 | 286 | 561 | 77 | 261 | 22 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -11 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIL | 31% | 51 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 268 | 269 | 537 | 66 | 255 | 22 | 8 | 247 | 55 | -3 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIL | 45% | 99 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 273 | 283 | 556 | 77 | 257 | 22 | 7 | 255 | 60 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 150 | 137 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 190 | 260 | 241 | 501 | 51 | 243 | 22 | 7 | 252 | 42 | -7 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 112 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 48 | 143 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 189 | 260 | 237 | 497 | 49 | 242 | 22 | 7 | 252 | 42 | -32 | -1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2147 | 1920 | 351 | 53 | 3 | 14 | 180 | 563 | 29 | 78 | 40 | 183 | 263 | 235 | 498 | 53 | 248 | 26 | 8 | 230 | 42 | -26 | -0 | +0 | +5 | +11 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 106 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 54 | 170 | 9 | 24 | 12 | 182 | 262 | 234 | 497 | 52 | 248 | 26 | 8 | 230 | 42 | -34 | -0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 172 PAwOBA .270 → .238 (−32)K% 16.9% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.86% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 17.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 5.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.71% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .270 → .238; ISO .069 → .065; BABIP .241 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 321 PAwOBA .242 → .216 (−26)K% 20.2% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.25% | ÷0.932 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.10% | ÷1.008 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 5.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.55% | ÷0.976 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.042 | 26.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.77% | ÷1.091 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×1.042 | 1.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.083 | ×0.880 | ×1.026 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.170 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 117, K 86, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .242 → .216; ISO .014 → .012; BABIP .281 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 33 PAwOBA .213 → .173 (−39)K% 18.2% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.943 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.06% | ÷0.965 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 18.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 3.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.246 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 89, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .213 → .173; ISO .032 → .024; BABIP .240 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 353 PAwOBA .275 → .229 (−46)K% 15.3% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.30% | ÷0.993 | ×1.270 | — | — | 19.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.76% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 7.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.82% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 17.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.31% | ÷0.991 | ×0.810 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 3.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.65% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .275 → .229; ISO .091 → .074; BABIP .238 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 187 PAwOBA .307 → .233 (−73)K% 17.6% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.97% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.97% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 17.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.87% | ÷1.090 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 6.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.072 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .307 → .233; ISO .070 → .051; BABIP .298 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 64 PAwOBA .269 → .217 (−52)K% 28.1% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.12% | ÷0.955 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 6.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 28.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 4.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .269 → .217; ISO .034 → .027; BABIP .350 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ACarolina Mudcats · 314 PAwOBA .274 → .211 (−62)K% 25.5% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.48% | ÷0.977 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.61% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 11.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.23% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.77% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×1.045 | 18.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.52% | ÷1.036 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.045 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.983 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.136 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.25% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 107, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .274 → .211; ISO .066 → .047; BABIP .246 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Brewers Blue · 38 PAwOBA .343 → .223 (−120)K% 31.6% → 45.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.58% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷0.963 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 10.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 20.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 7.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.91% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 101, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .343 → .223; ISO .156 → .099; BABIP .368 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).