Joaquin Arias Jr.

OF ACL Rangers

Age 20 L/L 6'1" / 160 lbs ROK HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL Rangers R…	147	.314/.426/.415	0	4	57	—	.208/.298/.264
2026	19	ROKTEX	120	.260/.342/.317	0	3	28	—	.193/.248/.239
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBTEX	230	.199/.266/.270	2	4	53	-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBTEX	64	.204/.272/.288	1	1	59	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%63

Whiff%59

Speed57

BB%18

Chase%17

ISO13

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsYeniel Laboy (age 20) · Yohairo Cuevas (age 19) · Sandy Acevedo (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 101 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .263 / .268

PA101

HR1

K%28

BB%8

ISO71

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	113	29	4	1	0	19	23	1	8	1	257	368	310	678	53	312	17	14	310	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	118	37	8	2	0	21	24	2	4	3	314	426	415	841	102	385	16	14	368	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	120	104	27	4	1	0	13	35	0	3	1	260	342	317	659	58	380	29	11	298	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	118	22	3	1	0	14	28	1	8	1	186	278	229	507	42	216	20	10	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	125	26	5	1	0	14	29	2	4	3	208	298	264	562	56	251	20	10	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	120	109	21	3	1	0	8	50	0	3	1	193	248	239	486	46	317	42	7	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	118	22	3	1	0	14	28	1	8	1	186	278	229	507	42	237	20	10	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	113	29	4	1	0	19	23	1	8	1	257	368	310	678	53	312	17	14	310	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	125	26	5	1	0	14	29	2	4	3	208	298	264	562	56	265	20	10	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	118	37	8	2	0	21	24	2	4	3	314	426	415	841	102	385	16	14	368	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	120	109	21	3	1	0	8	50	0	3	1	193	248	239	486	46	344	42	7	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	—	120	104	27	4	1	0	13	35	0	3	1	260	342	317	659	58	380	29	11	298	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	121	22	3	1	0	14	28	1	8	1	182	278	223	501	41	216	20	10	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	130	26	5	1	0	14	29	2	4	3	200	298	254	552	54	251	20	10	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	120	111	21	3	1	0	8	50	0	3	1	189	248	234	482	45	317	42	7	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	137	121	22	3	1	0	14	28	1	8	1	182	278	223	501	41	216	20	10	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	147	130	26	5	1	0	14	29	2	4	3	200	298	254	552	54	251	20	10	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	120	111	21	3	1	0	8	50	0	3	1	189	248	234	482	45	317	42	7	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	230	209	42	7	2	2	17	65	2	4	1	199	266	270	536	71	277	28	7	246	53	-13	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	187	169	35	6	1	2	14	52	2	3	1	204	272	287	559	83	279	28	7	255	59	-9	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	64	58	12	2	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	204	272	288	561	84	278	28	8	256	59	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	64	58	12	2	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	207	281	293	574	86	282	28	8	256	48	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	121	20	0	10	51	183	10	10	0	205	280	290	570	85	280	28	8	256	48	-32	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	692	612	123	20	5	3	58	188	6	20	6	201	277	265	541	64	279	27	8	239	48	-15	+1	+0	-2	+6	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	116	19	5	3	54	177	6	19	6	202	277	268	545	66	280	27	8	239	48	-33	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joaquin Arias Jr. (OGILVIE)	20	35→40	28→33	47→52	55	197/263/268	71	277	1	2	28%	8%	53	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yeniel Laboy 2024 · A	20	43	37→30	52→45	47	200/283/268	68	287	5	8	29%	9%	61	-1.5	199/274/263	64	285	4	7	29%	8%	55	-1.9	166/248/183	18	241	0	3	28%	9%	26	-1.3
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2023 · A	19	38	36→40	49→50	48	179/264/246	67	265	3	9	31%	10%	49	-2.4	191/274/274	83	295	5	14	33%	9%	59	-1.7	189/281/265	77	291	4	18	33%	10%	58	-1.0
✕Sandy Acevedo 2013 · A	20	37	38→40	49→50	44	181/259/263	83	253	5	11	29%	8%	51	-2.3	186/256/284	98	256	7	9	28%	7%	54	-2.0	123/201/242	119	154	9	9	26%	8%	23	-1.1
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	40	36→40	45→50	46	190/261/259	69	270	4	9	29%	8%	50	-2.3	191/256/256	65	306	3	10	35%	7%	47	-2.6	156/231/187	31	268	0	14	38%	8%	19	-1.5
✕Jaden Rudd 2023 · A	20	39→36	39→30	49→50	49	187/279/277	90	259	6	12	28%	9%	61	-1.5	182/288/248	66	288	3	14	34%	10%	59	-1.6	160/281/212	51	264	2	16	35%	11%	47	-1.3
✕Cord Sandberg 2015 · A	20	41→46	37→40	46→45	44	196/260/268	72	268	5	7	28%	7%	51	-2.3	214/259/300	86	293	6	5	28%	4%	57	-1.8	209/254/303	94	307	8	5	33%	4%	54	-1.0
✕T.J. Schofield-Sam 2021 · A	20	43→48	36→40	50→40	43	202/264/271	69	295	4	7	31%	8%	53	-2.1	214/268/311	97	296	7	5	29%	5%	64	-1.3	218/267/306	88	286	6	4	25%	3%	61	-1.2
✕Lexer Saduy 2023 · A	20	43	36→40	48→50	47	202/280/266	64	289	3	11	29%	9%	59	-1.7	198/271/275	77	305	5	13	34%	7%	57	-1.8	179/257/252	73	282	5	16	35%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Connor Oliver 2014 · A	20	40→45	35→40	49→50	40	190/236/250	60	264	2	9	28%	6%	36	-3.3	193/248/266	73	281	3	10	30%	6%	45	-2.7	186/243/259	73	269	3	10	30%	6%	39	-1.9
✕Edison Lantigua 2017 · A	20	41	36→45	52→50	42	195/250/272	77	278	3	6	29%	7%	47	-2.5	201/260/293	92	331	6	8	38%	7%	57	-1.8	178/240/274	95	303	8	7	41%	7%	42	-0.8
✕Oswal Leones 2021 · A	20	40	35→30	46→50	47	189/255/250	61	251	3	12	25%	8%	45	-2.7	198/260/264	66	294	3	8	31%	7%	50	-2.3	180/248/237	57	271	2	9	32%	8%	36	-1.1
✕Sam McDonnell 2016 · A	20	45→42	36→40	45	46	211/270/276	65	283	3	10	25%	7%	56	-1.9	204/273/288	84	283	4	8	27%	8%	60	-1.6	194/268/281	86	267	5	7	27%	8%	54	-1.0
✕Shane Mardirosian 2016 · A	20	42→40	37→40	50→45	39	199/247/277	78	276	4	13	28%	5%	48	-2.5	199/250/269	70	280	4	8	29%	5%	47	-2.5	192/246/257	65	268	4	7	28%	5%	41	-1.6
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	38	38→40	47→50	40	185/239/260	76	260	6	5	30%	6%	41	-3.0	185/243/256	71	278	3	6	32%	6%	42	-2.9	144/211/202	57	222	0	6	32%	6%	17	-1.5
✕Jesus Loya 2012 · A	20	42	35→40	51→50	46	198/258/258	60	251	3	13	22%	6%	48	-2.5	224/266/287	63	281	2	11	20%	5%	57	-1.8	243/289/294	51	313	1	11	21%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Herman Armas 2007 · A	20	37	38→40	47→50	44	181/254/261	80	248	5	11	28%	7%	48	-2.5	197/270/285	88	250	7	9	23%	7%	59	-1.6	179/264/261	82	212	9	9	19%	8%	51	-1.2
✕Joe Naranjo 2021 · A	20	43→48	36→40	50→45	42	203/259/270	67	299	4	5	32%	7%	51	-2.3	200/278/288	88	301	8	5	33%	9%	63	-1.3	191/279/279	88	283	9	4	33%	10%	60	-1.2
✕Elis Cuevas 2024 · A	19	41	37→40	51→65	45	195/270/275	80	270	3	14	27%	8%	57	-1.8	199/275/294	95	266	9	32	27%	7%	63	-1.3	188/268/283	95	252	12	43	29%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Narciso Polanco 2024 · A	19	38→42	36→40	47→55	46	182/256/247	65	259	3	8	29%	8%	45	-2.7	193/266/277	84	267	6	17	27%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/281	89	260	6	21	27%	8%	54	-1.6
✕Jonathan Sierra 2019 · A	20	42→41	36→40	49→45	41	195/257/265	70	297	3	9	34%	7%	49	-2.4	204/247/275	71	269	4	4	25%	5%	47	-2.5	205/253/272	67	265	5	1	23%	5%	46	-1.3