Madinson Frias

P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKBOS	11	3	30	6.30	3.53	16.1%	13.9%	—	K 10.9% · BB 17.3% · FIP 4.37
2026	21	ABOS	8	6	31	6.68	5.97	15.4%	12.8%	—	K 11.4% · BB 15.0% · FIP 6.91
2027PROJ	22	MLBBOS	4	4	19	5.68	5.68	16.0%	14.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBBOS	3	3	14	5.35	5.23	18.2%	12.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsRubén Menes (age 22) · Danny Flatt (age 20) · Luis Mora (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%16.0%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%1.4%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	11	11	40	163	24	19	0	100%	3.7	10.0%	14.6%	-4.6%	0.0%	2.23	4.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	11	11	40	163	24	19	0	100%	3.7	10.0%	14.6%	-4.6%	0.0%	2.23	4.10	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	11	11	40	163	24	19	0	100%	3.7	14.7%	11.7%	3.1%	0.0%	2.23	3.32	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	3	30	137	22	19	0	27%	2.7	10.9%	17.3%	-6.4%	0.0%	6.30	4.37	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	3	30	137	22	19	0	27%	2.7	10.9%	17.3%	-6.4%	0.0%	6.30	4.37	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	11	3	30	137	22	19	0	27%	2.7	16.1%	13.9%	2.2%	0.0%	6.30	3.53	—
2026	21	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	8	6	31	149	23	19	6	75%	3.9	11.4%	15.0%	-3.6%	5.2%	6.68	6.91	—
2026	21	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	8	6	31	149	23	19	6	75%	3.9	11.4%	15.0%	-3.6%	5.2%	6.68	6.91	—
2026	21	A RAW	Salem RidgeYaks	8	6	31	149	23	19	6	75%	3.9	15.4%	12.8%	2.7%	4.0%	6.68	5.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	BOS	4	4	19	80	13	12	2	100%	4.8	16.0%	14.6%	1.4%	3.1%	5.68	5.68	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BOS	5	5	29	122	22	16	4	100%	5.8	18.2%	12.7%	5.5%	3.0%	5.35	5.23	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	BOS	3	3	14	59	11	8	2	100%	4.7	18.2%	12.7%	5.5%	3.0%	5.35	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	14	60	11	8	2	100%	4.7	18.2%	12.7%	5.5%	3.0%	5.35	4.85	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	155	113	28	100%	5.3	18.2%	12.7%	5.5%	3.0%	5.35	4.85	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		30	20	101	449	48	70	8	67%	3.4	10.8%	15.6%	-4.8%	1.7%	4.80	5.12	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	39	200	886	95	138	15	67%	3.4	10.8%	15.6%	-4.8%	1.7%	4.80	5.12	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Madinson Frias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	16.0%	14.6%	3.1%	—	5.23	18.2%	5.5%	29	-0.45	—	—	—
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	85
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	84
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	84
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	84
Justin Germano R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP-	4.49	14.7%	12.8%	1.8%	.377	4.12	13.8%	7.3%	133	-0.37	3.73	405	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Luis Ojeda R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP-	4.94	14.6%	13.4%	2.5%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	131	81
Gavin Floyd R 2005 · 5.53 FIP	22	SP-	5.53	13.4%	11.0%	3.9%	.275	5.01	15.7%	8.1%	331	-0.52	2.95	1,250	81
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	80
Luke Prokopec R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP-	4.49	13.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.262	5.44	14.2%	7.6%	210	+0.95	4.49	231	80
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	80
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	79
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	79
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	79
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79