Carlos Matias — OGILVIE

Carlos MatiasOF FCL Rays

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 195 lbs ROK HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION109 act + 14 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.154 / .214 / .154

PA14

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP275

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	166	146	36	7	1	3	15	37	4	7	0	247	333	370	703	123	308	22	9	319	102	+0	+1	—	—	+4	0.5
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	146	35	6	0	1	20	26	9	20	6	240	366	301	667	62	274	14	11	306	93	-1	+2	—	—	+4	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	166	152	26	4	1	2	9	53	4	7	0	171	236	250	486	79	245	32	5	218	34	-13	+1	—	—	+4	-0.8
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	154	29	5	0	1	12	37	9	20	6	188	286	240	526	52	211	20	7	230	42	-13	+2	—	—	+4	-0.7
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	166	152	26	4	1	2	9	53	4	7	0	171	236	250	486	79	245	32	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	166	146	36	7	1	3	15	37	4	7	0	247	333	370	703	123	308	22	9	319	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	154	29	5	0	1	12	37	9	20	6	188	286	240	526	52	231	20	7	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	146	35	6	0	1	20	26	9	20	6	240	366	301	667	62	274	14	11	306	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	166	152	26	4	1	2	9	53	4	7	0	171	236	250	486	79	245	32	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	159	29	5	0	1	12	37	9	20	6	182	286	233	518	50	211	20	7	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	166	152	26	4	1	2	9	53	4	7	0	171	236	250	486	79	245	32	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	159	29	5	0	1	12	37	9	20	6	182	286	233	518	50	211	20	7	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	TB	—	109	100	16	3	0	1	6	35	3	7	1	160	229	220	449	60	234	32	6	201	22	-10	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	TB	—	109	96	23	5	0	1	10	24	3	7	1	240	330	323	653	83	310	22	9	303	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	TB	0%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	154	214	154	368		267	29	7	243	51	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
TOT	19	ROK MLE	TB	—	123	113	18	3	0	1	7	39	3	7	1	159	228	212	440	53	233	32	6	206	25	-11	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TB	34%	236	215	44	8	1	3	15	63	4	6	1	205	269	293	562	88	272	27	6	258	61	-11	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.7
2027	20	MLB CTX	TB	34%	81	75	15	3	0	1	5	22	1	2	0	200	259	280	539	80	280	27	6	251	61	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	81	75	15	3	0	1	5	22	1	2	0	200	259	280	539	80	269	27	6	251	47	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	120	24	0	8	40	177	8	16	0	199	258	279	538	80	269	27	6	251	47	-31	+3	+0	-4	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	598	534	101	17	2	6	37	157	17	33	7	189	264	262	526	73	251	26	6	238	47	-12	+1	+0	-2	+5	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	110	18	2	7	40	171	18	36	8	190	263	264	527	74	251	26	6	238	47	-31	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	234	2	5	206	266	288	-1	+0	-0.6	-0.3
/162	664	6	15	-4.0	+0.0	-1.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Matias (OGILVIE)	19	40	20	60	40	194/258/267	73	267	1	5	27%	6%	51	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	41	37→40	53→55	43	195/256/271	76	260	4	13	25%	6%	50	-2.3	197/266/280	83	273	6	17	28%	7%	56	-1.9	189/268/272	83	254	9	24	27%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Edwin Ventura 2017 · A	19	48	37→30	54→55	41	225/280/299	74	293	4	12	24%	5%	65	-1.2	192/240/242	50	258	2	14	25%	5%	36	-3.3	167/212/188	21	225	0	20	24%	4%	12	-1.5
✕Demetrio Nadal 2023 · A	19	42	36→30	55	47	197/281/261	64	262	3	17	24%	8%	59	-1.7	210/300/290	80	274	4	25	23%	8%	72	-0.7	193/293/271	78	257	5	32	24%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	42→41	34→30	51→50	42	199/262/249	50	277	2	16	28%	6%	47	-2.5	210/309/255	45	289	1	19	25%	11%	68	-1.0	195/321/224	30	275	1	24	25%	14%	65	-0.5
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	40→37	37→40	54→50	44	191/258/270	80	263	4	18	28%	7%	51	-2.2	202/266/283	81	296	5	9	31%	7%	57	-1.8	194/265/261	67	295	4	7	33%	8%	48	-1.4
✕Daniel Padilla 2016 · A	19	48	36→30	52→55	42	224/274/285	61	300	4	14	26%	6%	59	-1.6	217/288/282	65	293	3	16	24%	8%	64	-1.3	218/302/265	47	288	0	27	22%	10%	65	-0.4
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	53	-2.1	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	65	-1.2	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Enmanuel Zabala 2014 · A	19	44	37→30	51→50	47	207/275/284	76	262	3	11	21%	7%	60	-1.6	221/271/284	63	279	2	12	20%	5%	58	-1.7	214/259/252	38	294	1	13	26%	4%	44	-1.0
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	42	-2.9	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	40	-3.0	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	17	-1.4
✕Zac Law 2015 · A	19	44→43	36→40	54→50	41	206/257/278	72	272	3	9	24%	5%	51	-2.2	208/251/295	87	267	7	11	24%	4%	53	-2.1	206/255/277	71	270	5	12	24%	4%	51	-1.0
✕Olivber Moreno 2019 · A	18	40	36→40	52→50	41	192/248/253	61	272	3	13	29%	6%	43	-2.8	198/268/274	76	279	6	11	29%	7%	56	-1.9	203/284/283	80	254	7	13	21%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Marco Soto 2022 · A	18	41	36→30	52→50	42	194/263/258	64	277	3	10	29%	6%	51	-2.3	201/256/257	56	270	2	8	25%	5%	47	-2.5	183/237/221	38	251	1	8	26%	5%	30	-0.9
✕Jesus Hernandez 2023 · A	19	43	35→40	52→55	49	203/266/262	59	256	3	15	21%	8%	51	-2.2	192/274/272	80	272	5	15	28%	10%	58	-1.7	193/277/283	91	280	6	24	31%	10%	59	-0.8
✕Grolmann Gonzalez 2008 · A	19	43	38→40	51→55	43	206/267/289	83	283	5	15	28%	7%	58	-1.7	198/260/279	81	282	5	9	29%	7%	53	-2.1	181/244/263	82	261	4	5	30%	6%	43	-0.7
✕Gregory Barrios 2023 · A	19	43→51	34→30	56→60	44	203/257/253	50	261	1	14	22%	6%	46	-2.6	207/250/263	56	256	2	25	19%	4%	45	-2.7	229/267/283	54	273	2	39	16%	4%	53	-1.4
✕Raymundo Moreno 2017 · A	19	46	34→30	51→55	47	213/282/266	52	263	1	14	18%	6%	59	-1.6	199/268/267	68	265	3	9	24%	6%	55	-2.0	167/241/233	66	227	3	8	26%	6%	35	-0.8
✕Jonathan Reynoso 2012 · A	19	39→49	35→30	57→55	42	183/246/245	62	249	1	19	26%	6%	41	-3.0	205/242/268	63	264	3	20	23%	4%	43	-2.8	207/236/257	50	263	3	23	22%	3%	36	-1.1
✕Cesar Fuentes 2006 · A	19	44	36→30	52→45	40	212/249/279	68	275	3	9	24%	5%	48	-2.5	219/274/280	61	276	4	7	21%	6%	59	-1.7	216/267/285	69	281	7	6	24%	5%	55	-0.7
✕Benny Montgomery 2022 · A	19	47→38	37→40	52→50	42	221/274/292	70	306	4	12	28%	6%	61	-1.5	216/272/321	105	346	9	12	38%	6%	68	-1.0	195/253/279	83	326	8	11	40%	6%	48	-1.6
✕Rather Trujillo 2008 · A	19	39	34→30	51→50	46	180/269/232	51	236	2	15	22%	7%	48	-2.5	215/304/283	68	261	3	14	17%	8%	72	-0.7	223/314/293	70	263	2	14	14%	8%	76	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps