Carlos Matias — OGILVIE

Carlos MatiasOF FCL Rays

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 195 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 68 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .250 / .270

PA68

HR1

K%28

BB%6

BABIP256

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	166	151	26	4	1	2	10	53	4	7	0	172	242	252	494	79	247	32	6	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	166	146	36	7	1	3	15	37	4	7	0	247	333	370	703	123	308	22	9	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	154	28	5	0	1	12	37	9	20	6	182	280	234	514	52	223	20	7	227	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	146	35	6	0	1	20	26	9	20	6	240	366	301	667	62	274	14	11	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	TB	—	102	93	15	3	0	1	6	33	3	7	1	161	235	226	461	65	237	32	6	204	14	-10	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.7
YTD	19	ROK	TB	—	102	90	22	5	0	1	9	23	3	7	1	244	333	333	667	89	318	23	9	308	94	-1	+1	+0	-1	+3	0.3
ROS	19	ROK	TB	0%	68	63	12	2	0	1	4	19	1	2	0	190	250	270	520	79	268	28	6	243	45	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
ROS	19	MLB	TB	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		272	—	—	232	35	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	TB	—	102	94	15	3	0	1	6	33	3	7	1	160	235	223	459	64	233	32	6	204	14	-10	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.7
TOT	19	ROK	TB	—	170	156	27	5	0	2	10	52	4	9	1	173	241	244	485	71	245	31	6	220	26	-14	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	TB	34%	236	215	44	8	1	3	15	64	4	6	1	205	269	293	562	88	274	27	6	258	55	-12	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.6
2028	21	MLB	TB	48%	360	327	70	13	2	6	24	95	6	9	2	214	280	321	601	107	276	26	7	268	63	-15	+1	+0	-2	+10	-0.6
2027	20	MLB	TB	34%	81	75	15	3	0	1	5	22	1	2	0	200	259	280	539	80	277	27	6	246	47	-5	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
2028	21	MLB	TB	48%	174	157	34	6	1	3	12	46	3	4	1	217	285	325	610	108	280	26	7	256	54	-9	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	255	233	49	9	1	4	17	68	4	6	1	210	277	309	586	99	278	27	7	253	52	-14	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	125	23	3	10	43	173	10	15	3	210	276	310	586	99	278	27	7	253	52	-35	+2	+0	-4	+18	-1.9
Career	—			—	1012	910	180	32	4	13	65	268	24	44	9	198	269	285	554	87	262	26	6	248	48	-59	+5	+0	-6	+29	-3.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	116	21	3	8	42	172	15	28	6	199	270	286	556	87	263	26	6	248	48	-38	+3	+0	-4	+18	-2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	166	146	36	7	1	3	15	37	4	7	0	247	333	370	703	123	308	22	9	319	102	+0	+1	—	—	+5	0.7
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	146	35	6	0	1	20	26	9	20	6	240	366	301	667	62	274	14	11	306	92	-2	+2	—	—	+5	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	409	5	10	208	270	298	-2	+0	-1.0	-0.5
	/162	664	8	16	208	270	298	-4.0	+0.0	-1.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Matias (OGILVIE)	19	40	20	60	40	173/241/244	71	245	2	9	31%	6%	26	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	40	37→40	53→55	42	193/254/272	79	260	4	13	26%	6%	43	-2.2	199/267/282	83	276	6	17	28%	7%	52	-1.6	193/273/276	82	259	9	24	27%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Demetrio Nadal 2023 · A	19	42	35→30	55	47	198/281/261	63	260	3	17	23%	7%	53	-1.5	210/300/287	77	273	4	25	23%	8%	68	-0.5	195/295/268	73	258	5	32	24%	9%	60	-0.4
✕Edwin Ventura 2017 · A	19	48	37→30	54→55	41	225/280/299	74	293	4	12	24%	5%	61	-1.0	192/240/242	50	258	2	14	25%	5%	28	-3.2	167/212/188	21	225	0	20	24%	4%	1	-1.5
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	40→35	37→40	54→50	44	191/258/270	80	263	4	18	28%	7%	45	-2.1	201/265/282	81	295	5	9	31%	7%	50	-1.7	191/271/264	74	296	3	7	33%	9%	45	-1.3
✕Daniel Padilla 2016 · A	19	48	36→30	52→55	42	224/274/285	61	300	4	14	26%	6%	54	-1.4	217/288/282	65	293	3	16	24%	8%	59	-1.1	218/302/265	47	288	0	27	22%	10%	61	-0.3
✕Mishael Deson 2021 · A	19	41	36→30	49→55	44	196/249/263	68	261	3	15	25%	6%	38	-2.6	226/278/294	68	340	5	13	33%	6%	58	-1.2	235/289/284	49	365	5	15	35%	7%	58	-0.4
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	34	-2.8	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	33	-2.9	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	6	-1.4
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	46	-2.0	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	61	-1.0	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	64	-0.3
✕Enmanuel Zabala 2014 · A	19	44	37→30	51→50	47	207/275/284	76	262	3	11	21%	7%	55	-1.4	222/272/285	63	281	2	12	21%	5%	53	-1.5	215/261/252	37	299	1	13	27%	4%	38	-0.9
✕Marco Soto 2022 · A	18	41	36→30	52→50	41	195/262/260	64	278	3	10	29%	6%	44	-2.1	202/257/256	54	271	2	8	25%	5%	40	-2.4	184/237/220	36	252	1	8	26%	5%	21	-0.9
✕Olivber Moreno 2019 · A	18	40	36→40	52→50	41	192/248/253	61	272	3	13	29%	6%	36	-2.7	198/268/274	76	279	6	11	29%	7%	50	-1.7	203/284/283	80	254	7	13	21%	8%	56	-0.6
✕Zac Law 2015 · A	19	44	36→40	54→50	41	206/257/278	72	272	3	9	24%	5%	45	-2.1	209/252/297	88	268	7	11	24%	4%	48	-1.9	207/256/280	73	270	5	12	24%	4%	45	-0.9
✕Grolmann Gonzalez 2008 · A	19	43	38→40	51→55	43	206/267/289	83	283	5	15	28%	7%	53	-1.5	198/260/279	81	282	5	9	29%	7%	47	-1.9	181/244/263	82	261	4	5	30%	6%	35	-0.6
✕Gregory Barrios 2023 · A	19	44→50	34→30	56→60	44	205/258/255	50	265	1	14	22%	6%	40	-2.4	202/246/259	57	251	2	25	19%	4%	36	-2.7	216/259/272	56	261	2	39	17%	4%	42	-1.3
✕Raymundo Moreno 2017 · A	19	46	34→30	51→55	47	213/282/266	52	263	1	14	18%	6%	54	-1.4	199/268/267	68	265	3	9	24%	6%	49	-1.8	167/241/233	66	227	3	8	26%	6%	26	-0.8
✕Luis Barahona 2013 · A	19	40	35→30	53→50	43	190/243/255	65	258	1	13	26%	6%	33	-2.9	217/273/280	63	297	2	12	26%	7%	53	-1.5	233/290/282	49	313	0	17	24%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Rather Trujillo 2008 · A	19	39	34→30	51→50	46	180/269/232	51	236	2	15	22%	7%	41	-2.3	215/304/283	68	261	3	14	17%	8%	69	-0.4	223/314/293	70	263	2	14	14%	8%	73	-0.1
✕C.J. McElroy 2012 · A	19	43→51	36→30	52→55	42	202/258/268	66	274	3	14	26%	6%	43	-2.2	214/254/264	50	278	1	17	22%	5%	40	-2.4	208/271/262	54	285	4	30	26%	5%	45	-1.1
✕Ronald Bermudez 2007 · A	19	43→46	36→40	56→45	43	203/261/277	74	282	2	9	27%	6%	46	-2.0	233/299/325	92	298	5	10	22%	8%	76	+0.0	255/281/326	71	326	4	4	22%	3%	64	-0.3
✕Cesar Fuentes 2006 · A	19	44	36→30	52→45	40	212/249/279	68	275	3	9	24%	5%	41	-2.3	219/274/280	61	276	4	7	21%	6%	53	-1.5	216/267/285	69	281	7	6	24%	5%	50	-0.7