Spence Coffman — OGILVIE

Spence CoffmanSS Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 170 lbs A HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .273 / .292

PA78

HR1

K%27

BB%7

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED65

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	71	62	12	1	1	0	7	22	0	4	0	194	275	242	517	48	293	31	10	219	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	71	59	14	1	1	0	10	15	0	4	0	237	348	288	636	51	311	21	14	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	2 teams	—	231	211	46	6	0	0	13	53	2	19	2	218	270	246	516	28	286	23	6	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	2 teams	—	231	203	58	9	0	0	21	37	2	19	2	286	358	330	688	44	343	16	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	125	176	125	301		222	41	6	148	-28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	17	16	3	0	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	188	235	188	423		273	29	6	201	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	SD	—	78	72	15	2	0	1	5	21	1	2	0	208	269	278	547	69	293	27	6	259	57	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	SD	34%	154	141	31	5	1	2	11	41	1	4	1	220	281	312	593	92	294	27	7	269	64	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2028	24	MLB	SD	46%	272	249	56	9	2	4	19	71	2	7	1	225	285	325	610	100	295	26	7	276	70	-9	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2029	25	MLB	SD	52%	348	317	72	12	2	6	25	90	3	9	2	227	290	334	624	107	295	26	7	280	73	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.4
2030	26	MLB	SD	54%	397	361	82	14	2	7	29	103	4	11	2	227	292	335	627	108	295	26	7	282	74	-12	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.5
2031	27	MLB	SD	54%	420	382	85	14	2	7	31	109	4	11	2	223	288	325	612	102	295	26	7	282	74	-12	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.6
2032	28	MLB	SD	54%	433	394	88	15	2	7	32	113	4	12	2	223	288	325	613	102	295	26	7	281	74	-13	+2	-1	+5	+12	0.5
2033	29	MLB	SD	53%	432	392	88	15	2	7	33	113	4	11	2	224	291	327	618	102	294	26	8	280	72	-14	+1	-1	+5	+12	0.3
2034	30	MLB	SD	52%	429	390	86	14	2	7	32	114	4	11	2	221	286	321	607	100	293	27	7	277	70	-14	+1	-2	+5	+12	0.2
2027	23	MLB	SD	34%	53	49	11	2	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	224	283	327	610	102	291	26	8	260	57	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	SD	46%	125	114	26	4	1	2	9	33	1	3	1	228	290	333	624	105	292	26	7	267	62	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2029	25	MLB	SD	52%	180	163	37	6	1	3	13	47	2	5	1	227	292	331	623	104	292	26	7	270	65	-7	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2030	26	MLB	SD	54%	215	195	44	7	1	4	16	56	2	6	1	226	291	333	624	108	292	26	7	272	66	-8	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.1
2031	27	MLB	SD	54%	228	207	47	8	1	4	17	59	2	6	1	227	292	333	625	106	291	26	7	272	66	-9	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.1
2032	28	MLB	SD	54%	235	213	48	8	1	4	18	61	2	6	1	225	292	329	620	103	291	26	8	271	66	-9	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.1
2033	29	MLB	SD	53%	229	208	47	8	1	4	17	60	2	6	1	226	291	332	622	106	291	26	7	270	65	-9	+1	-1	+2	+6	-0.0
2034	30	MLB	SD	52%	225	204	44	7	1	3	17	60	2	6	1	216	283	304	586	88	290	27	8	267	63	-9	+1	-1	+2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1490	1353	304	50	7	25	111	390	13	39	7	225	290	327	617	103	295	26	7	270	65	-60	+5	-2	+16	+42	0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	133	22	3	11	48	170	6	17	3	225	290	329	619	103	296	26	7	270	65	-26	+2	-1	+7	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	3282	2987	663	107	16	48	238	857	29	102	16	222	286	317	603	95	293	26	7	274	68	-120	+14	-4	+35	+93	1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	131	21	3	10	47	170	6	20	3	221	286	318	603	96	291	26	7	274	68	-24	+3	-1	+7	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	71	59	14	1	1	10	15	0	4	0	237	348	288	636	51	311	21	14	292	82	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	31	27	6	1	0	2	8	1	0	0	222	300	259	559	37	300	26	6	256	54	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	200	176	52	8	0	19	29	1	19	2	295	367	341	708	45	349	14	10	320	103	+1	+3	—	—	+6	1.0
2025	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	17	16	3	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	188	235	188	423		273	29	6	201	12	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,568	25	41	226	287	329	+17	+15	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	11	17	226	287	329	+7.1	+6.4	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spence Coffman (OGILVIE)	22	52→57	28→33	60→65	47	214/273/292	78	293	1	2	27%	7%	57	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dru Baker 2022 · A	22	45→55	37→40	56→60	41	213/266/295	82	298	4	14	28%	6%	54	-1.4	239/296/340	101	343	9	30	31%	6%	79	+0.3	247/300/330	83	351	7	39	30%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Evan Crawford 2011 · A	22	48→57	39→45	59→55	38	228/267/323	96	312	5	17	28%	4%	60	-1.0	241/285/325	84	328	4	19	26%	4%	69	-0.4	260/304/331	71	352	1	25	25%	4%	74	-0.1
✕Shane Sasaki 2022 · A	22	44→54	38→40	58→60	39	204/265/285	80	328	6	22	37%	7%	51	-1.7	232/295/336	104	351	9	27	34%	8%	77	+0.1	232/299/329	97	349	8	32	33%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Justin Dean 2019 · A	22	48→49	38→45	54→65	43	222/288/312	90	324	3	14	30%	7%	67	-0.5	218/290/333	115	320	10	24	33%	8%	75	-0.0	232/303/321	89	344	6	48	32%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Kristopher Negrón 2008 · A	22	42→51	37→45	55	43	202/266/271	69	272	4	18	26%	6%	48	-1.9	225/285/322	97	290	7	20	24%	6%	69	-0.4	230/293/333	103	294	9	23	23%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Jose Duarte 2007 · A	22	48→56	37→40	53→55	44	227/279/304	77	304	3	17	26%	7%	61	-1.0	236/284/314	78	301	5	20	22%	6%	66	-0.6	236/303/327	91	295	6	14	21%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Tyler Goeddel 2015 · A	22	45→50	41→45	55	41	214/271/320	106	305	7	18	31%	6%	63	-0.9	224/283/335	111	292	9	17	25%	7%	72	-0.2	220/282/325	105	280	9	18	23%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Nick Allen 2021 · A	22	45→55	37→40	52→50	43	212/261/293	81	267	4	14	22%	5%	51	-1.7	222/272/320	98	275	9	14	22%	6%	63	-0.9	242/303/316	74	289	6	16	17%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Albertson Asigen 2023 · A	21	48	35→40	57→55	48	221/293/288	67	304	2	12	26%	8%	63	-0.8	222/301/309	87	344	7	20	34%	9%	73	-0.1	213/301/307	94	348	8	27	37%	9%	69	-0.1
✕Kurt Mertins 2008 · A	22	46→54	37→40	55	43	218/274/288	70	290	4	19	25%	6%	55	-1.4	229/277/311	82	309	4	15	26%	5%	62	-0.9	233/278/316	83	312	3	14	25%	5%	60	-0.8
✕Danny Worth 2008 · AA	22	48→52	40→45	56→50	44	226/283/327	101	309	6	12	28%	7%	69	-0.4	219/270/307	88	292	5	11	25%	6%	58	-1.2	225/289/335	110	294	10	18	25%	7%	71	-0.1
✕Logan Watkins 2012 · A	22	50→52	37→40	55	44	232/287/313	82	309	3	14	25%	6%	67	-0.5	224/286/318	94	297	6	17	25%	7%	68	-0.5	224/279/299	75	286	3	17	22%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	40→45	58→55	46	205/275/300	94	276	6	17	27%	8%	59	-1.1	222/298/307	85	300	5	16	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Jacob Young 2022 · A	23	43→53	38→40	57→60	43	204/254/284	80	263	5	21	24%	6%	46	-2.0	243/304/321	78	311	4	31	21%	7%	76	+0.1	252/314/329	77	319	3	36	20%	6%	80	+0.3
✕Isaias Velasquez 2010 · A	22	50→59	37→40	53→55	43	233/280/320	87	295	3	12	22%	5%	66	-0.6	247/299/331	84	309	3	19	20%	6%	76	+0.1	262/317/343	81	325	2	24	19%	7%	83	+0.4
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2017 · A	22	46→47	38→45	54→60	41	213/289/295	82	290	4	16	26%	5%	65	-0.7	190/269/267	77	298	6	21	35%	6%	50	-1.8	198/285/310	113	286	12	28	32%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Jose Cordova 2022 · A	22	50	37→40	52→50	40	231/286/308	77	319	4	14	28%	5%	66	-0.6	205/256/273	68	302	3	8	31%	5%	44	-2.1	227/290/312	85	305	4	12	25%	7%	65	-0.3
✕Cutter Dykstra 2011 · A	22	46→53	40	52→55	44	223/284/309	86	299	8	16	27%	7%	66	-0.6	217/276/292	75	306	5	16	29%	7%	57	-1.2	232/301/316	84	315	6	16	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Franklin Rollin 2018 · A	22	47	39→40	53→55	40	224/262/317	93	276	6	18	21%	4%	57	-1.2	200/247/282	82	259	6	15	24%	5%	42	-2.3	185/236/253	68	236	6	17	24%	5%	27	-1.4
✕Frank Frias 2015 · A	21	49	37→40	54→55	44	226/292/302	75	315	4	19	28%	7%	66	-0.6	223/293/326	103	344	8	10	34%	8%	74	-0.1	212/302/345	133	356	14	5	40%	10%	79	+0.1