Spence Coffman — OGILVIE

Spence CoffmanSS Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 170 lbs A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .274 / .293

PA7

HR0

K%27

BB%7

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED65

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	71	59	14	1	1	0	10	15	0	4	0	237	348	288	636	51	311	21	14	292	84	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	31	27	6	1	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	222	300	259	559	37	300	26	6	256	59	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	200	176	52	8	0	0	19	29	1	19	2	295	367	341	708	45	349	14	10	320	103	+1	+3	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	17	16	3	0	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	188	235	188	423		273	29	6	201	22	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	71	63	12	1	1	0	6	22	0	4	0	190	261	238	499	48	263	31	8	219	34	-6	+1	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	31	28	5	1	0	0	1	11	1	0	0	179	233	214	448	36	256	35	3	204	24	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	200	183	43	6	0	0	12	42	1	19	2	235	286	268	553	33	289	21	6	243	51	-12	+3	—	—	+4	-0.5
2025	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	125	176	125	301		251	41	6	150	-12	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	71	63	12	1	1	0	6	22	0	4	0	190	261	238	499	48	286	31	8	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	—	71	59	14	1	1	0	10	15	0	4	0	237	348	288	636	51	311	21	14	292	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	231	211	47	6	0	0	13	53	2	19	2	223	274	251	526	28	292	23	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	231	203	58	9	0	0	21	37	2	19	2	286	358	330	688	44	343	16	9	312	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	125	176	125	301		222	41	6	150	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	17	16	3	0	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	188	235	188	423		273	29	6	201	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	71	65	12	1	1	0	6	22	0	4	0	185	261	231	492	46	263	31	8	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	231	214	47	6	0	0	13	53	2	19	2	220	274	248	522	28	285	23	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	125	176	125	301		251	41	6	150	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	71	65	12	1	1	0	6	22	0	4	0	185	261	231	492	46	263	31	8	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	231	214	47	6	0	0	13	53	2	19	2	220	274	248	522	28	285	23	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	125	176	125	301		251	41	6	150	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	SD	0%	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	143	143	143	286		293	29	0	260	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SD	34%	154	141	31	5	1	2	11	41	1	4	1	220	281	312	593	92	294	27	7	270	69	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	46%	272	249	56	9	2	4	19	71	2	7	1	225	285	325	610	100	295	26	7	277	73	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	52%	348	317	72	12	2	6	25	90	3	9	2	227	290	334	624	107	295	26	7	280	76	-10	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	54%	397	361	82	14	2	7	29	102	4	11	2	227	292	335	627	108	295	26	7	282	77	-11	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	54%	420	382	87	15	2	7	31	108	4	11	2	228	293	332	625	105	295	26	7	283	77	-11	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	54%	433	394	88	15	2	7	32	112	4	12	2	223	288	325	613	102	294	26	7	282	77	-12	+2	-1	+5	+9	0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	53%	432	393	88	15	2	7	32	113	4	11	2	224	289	326	615	102	294	26	7	280	76	-13	+1	-1	+5	+9	0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	SD	52%	429	390	86	14	2	7	32	113	4	11	2	221	286	321	607	100	293	26	7	277	74	-13	+1	-2	+5	+9	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	SD	34%	53	49	11	2	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	224	283	327	610	102	291	26	8	262	69	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	46%	125	114	26	4	1	2	9	32	1	3	1	228	290	333	624	105	292	26	7	269	73	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	52%	180	163	37	6	1	3	13	46	2	5	1	227	292	331	623	104	292	26	7	273	76	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	54%	215	195	44	7	1	4	16	55	2	6	1	226	291	333	624	108	292	26	7	274	77	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	54%	228	207	47	8	1	4	17	59	2	6	1	227	292	333	625	106	292	26	7	275	77	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	54%	235	213	48	8	1	4	18	61	2	6	1	225	292	329	620	103	291	26	8	274	77	-6	+1	-0	+3	+5	0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	53%	229	208	47	8	1	4	17	60	2	6	1	226	291	332	622	106	291	26	7	272	76	-7	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	SD	52%	225	204	45	7	1	4	17	59	2	6	1	221	287	324	611	103	290	26	8	270	74	-7	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1490	1353	305	50	7	26	111	386	13	39	7	225	290	330	621	105	294	26	7	272	72	-43	+5	-2	+16	+32	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	133	22	3	11	48	168	6	17	3	225	290	329	619	103	295	26	7	272	72	-19	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3211	2924	652	106	16	47	231	834	28	100	16	223	286	318	605	95	294	26	7	275	72	-84	+10	-4	+31	+63	1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	132	21	3	10	47	169	6	20	3	223	287	319	607	96	293	26	7	275	72	-19	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.4	1,568	25	41	226	287	330	+17	+15	1.9	1.9
/162	664	11	17	+7.1	+6.4	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spence Coffman (OGILVIE)	22	52→57	28→33	60→65	47	215/274/293	78	293	1	2	27%	7%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jon Matthews 2013 · A	22	37	36→40	56→60	38	178/236/244	66	265	3	23	32%	6%	36	-3.3	221/286/292	71	305	4	21	27%	7%	66	-1.1	231/302/293	61	313	3	21	25%	8%	69	-0.4
✕José Azocar 2018 · A	22	44→54	34→45	49→65	31	205/229/260	54	310	2	10	34%	3%	35	-3.4	228/253/302	74	329	4	9	31%	3%	55	-2.0	237/279/347	110	313	8	29	26%	5%	72	-0.4
✕Luis Tejada 2015 · A	22	40→44	37→45	51→50	36	193/234/261	68	269	4	10	29%	4%	39	-3.1	217/262/318	101	275	9	8	24%	5%	63	-1.4	217/264/324	108	265	10	7	22%	5%	62	-0.7
✕Robert Jacobsen 2007 · A	22	42→52	34→40	53→50	37	195/247/246	51	303	2	13	34%	6%	40	-3.0	200/255/265	65	319	3	10	35%	6%	48	-2.5	208/257/276	68	324	3	8	35%	5%	48	-1.1
✕Michael Bertram 2007 · A	23	42→49	37→50	52→40	37	202/231/275	73	257	4	10	23%	3%	40	-3.0	223/260/330	107	280	8	4	23%	4%	65	-1.2	230/268/363	133	285	12	2	23%	4%	75	-0.3
✕Bralin Jackson 2015 · A	21	39→49	37→30	49→50	37	190/233/259	70	276	5	10	32%	5%	38	-3.2	213/258/278	65	301	4	9	29%	5%	51	-2.2	206/247/266	60	294	4	10	30%	5%	41	-1.6
✕Raul Wallace 2018 · A	22	41	38→30	56→50	28	185/222/270	85	333	4	13	44%	4%	36	-3.3	197/234/284	87	389	6	10	48%	4%	44	-2.8	169/188/249	80	384	9	9	57%	2%	16	-1.1
✕Alexander Palma 2016 · A	20	40	37→50	51→45	38	195/223/265	71	238	5	9	21%	3%	35	-3.4	217/250/325	108	264	10	8	21%	4%	59	-1.6	241/279/389	147	289	16	7	22%	4%	83	+0.0
✕Jimmy Paredes 2010 · A	21	44→54	37→45	51→55	39	209/245/285	76	260	4	8	21%	3%	49	-2.4	242/267/349	107	315	7	25	25%	3%	71	-0.8	251/280/375	124	344	12	15	30%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Kyle Robinson 2012 · A	23	35	41→45	51→30	39	178/228/284	107	247	8	4	31%	6%	43	-2.8	205/255/294	89	300	5	5	31%	6%	55	-2.0	210/261/310	100	314	5	1	33%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Ryan Roberson 2007 · A	23	43→46	36→50	49→40	31	191/240/255	64	345	3	8	43%	5%	40	-3.1	215/262/349	134	314	15	5	35%	5%	71	-0.8	213/260/352	139	298	17	4	33%	5%	69	-0.7
✕Chuckie Jones 2013 · A	21	39→40	40→45	49→50	29	172/226/259	88	345	7	6	50%	6%	36	-3.3	195/253/307	112	304	12	9	38%	6%	57	-1.8	193/251/307	115	286	13	9	36%	6%	55	-1.3
✕Josh Lester 2017 · A	23	40→42	39→55	50→40	35	192/237/273	81	293	6	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	209/252/336	127	273	13	3	28%	5%	63	-1.3	198/252/356	158	254	20	1	30%	6%	68	-0.8
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2019 · A	21	36→45	40→50	46→45	31	176/222/262	86	307	8	6	44%	5%	35	-3.4	202/249/314	112	315	12	6	38%	5%	57	-1.8	215/287/377	162	320	23	6	38%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Kyler Burke 2009 · A	21	36→46	37→45	49→45	38	176/237/244	68	281	5	6	37%	7%	37	-3.3	206/270/320	114	284	9	7	29%	7%	67	-1.1	199/266/316	117	271	9	6	28%	7%	63	-1.3
✕Nick Pratto 2021 · A	22	37→45	42→55	49→50	33	179/230/279	100	307	10	13	43%	6%	42	-2.9	200/287/381	181	293	22	9	37%	10%	88	+0.5	194/287/372	178	283	22	7	37%	10%	85	+0.2
✕J.D. Williams 2011 · A	20	42→47	37→40	51→50	32	184/232/253	70	348	4	9	46%	6%	36	-3.3	209/268/295	86	343	7	14	38%	7%	60	-1.6	210/278/299	89	327	7	18	35%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Ivan Mora 2014 · A	20	39	37→40	50→45	36	189/228/264	75	256	3	11	27%	3%	37	-3.3	202/242/273	71	286	3	9	29%	4%	44	-2.8	201/236/266	65	285	1	10	29%	3%	38	-0.9
✕Luis Pimentel 2009 · A	20	41	35→45	48→50	47	194/249/253	59	233	3	6	18%	6%	43	-2.8	216/269/306	90	253	8	7	17%	6%	63	-1.4	223/274/321	98	252	10	6	16%	5%	69	-0.3
✕Trenton Brooks 2017 · A	22	40→50	35→50	46→45	42	190/233/256	65	239	2	7	21%	5%	37	-3.3	209/264/301	92	264	6	3	22%	6%	59	-1.6	238/323/378	140	272	15	8	18%	10%	98	+0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps