Andy Lugo — OGILVIE

Andy LugoIF Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 160 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION232 act + 24 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .250 / .227

PA24

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP260

ISO45

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	242	220	70	11	2	2	11	35	8	21	2	318	372	414	786	95	366	14	5	351	123	+7	+3	—	—	+5	1.6
2024	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	79	71	16	4	0	0	5	20	2	3	1	225	291	282	573	56	314	25	6	265	66	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	341	306	83	26	1	3	26	68	9	25	3	271	346	392	738	121	340	20	8	334	112	+5	+4	—	—	+7	1.7
2025	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	280	248	70	18	3	7	24	59	2	10	1	282	348	464	812	181	339	21	9	353	125	+8	+2	—	—	+6	1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	242	224	55	7	2	2	7	50	8	21	2	246	293	321	614	76	292	21	3	262	63	-11	+3	—	—	+5	-0.2
2024	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	79	73	13	3	0	0	4	28	2	3	1	178	241	219	460	41	274	35	5	198	20	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2024	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	341	316	66	18	1	3	16	102	9	25	3	209	267	301	567	92	295	30	5	247	53	-19	+4	—	—	+7	-0.8
2025	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	280	257	55	12	2	6	17	81	2	10	1	214	268	346	614	132	279	29	6	270	69	-10	+2	—	—	+6	-0.3
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	242	224	55	7	2	2	7	50	8	21	2	246	293	321	614	76	303	21	3	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	—	242	220	70	11	2	2	11	35	8	21	2	318	372	414	786	95	366	14	5	351	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	420	389	79	21	1	3	20	130	11	28	4	203	262	285	547	82	297	31	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	420	377	99	30	1	3	31	88	11	28	4	263	336	371	707	109	336	21	7	321	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	280	257	55	12	2	6	17	81	2	10	1	214	268	346	614	132	282	29	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	280	248	70	18	3	7	24	59	2	10	1	282	348	464	812	181	339	21	9	353	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	242	225	55	7	2	2	7	50	8	21	2	244	293	320	613	76	292	21	3	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	420	386	79	21	1	3	20	130	11	28	4	205	262	288	549	83	291	31	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	280	259	55	12	2	6	17	81	2	10	1	212	268	344	612	131	279	29	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	420	386	79	21	1	3	20	130	11	28	4	205	262	288	549	83	291	31	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	280	259	55	12	2	6	17	81	2	10	1	212	268	344	612	131	279	29	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	MIN	—	232	202	27	4	1	4	21	89	6	6	3	134	236	223	459	89	205	38	9	211	29	-20	+0	+0	+0	+5	-1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	MIN	—	232	189	32	5	1	5	30	66	6	6	3	169	297	286	583	116	223	28	13	271	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	MIN	0%	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	182	250	227	477	45	260	33	8	241	49	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
TOT	22	A+ MLE	MIN	—	256	224	31	5	1	4	23	97	6	7	3	138	237	223	460	85	214	38	9	214	31	-21	+0	+0	+0	+6	-1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIN	35%	317	285	53	11	1	6	24	103	5	7	2	186	261	295	556	109	266	32	8	257	60	-15	+1	+0	+0	+7	-0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	46%	394	355	70	14	2	9	30	124	6	8	2	197	271	324	595	127	269	31	8	267	67	-16	+1	+0	+0	+9	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	437	393	78	16	2	10	34	134	7	9	2	198	274	326	600	127	270	31	8	272	71	-15	+1	+0	+0	+9	-0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	463	416	83	17	2	11	37	141	7	9	2	200	276	329	605	130	271	30	8	275	72	-15	+1	+0	+0	+10	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIN	35%	110	99	18	4	0	2	8	36	2	2	1	182	257	283	540	101	266	33	7	245	60	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	46%	182	163	33	7	1	4	14	57	3	4	1	202	278	331	609	129	269	31	8	256	67	-7	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	226	202	40	8	1	5	18	69	4	5	1	198	277	322	599	124	271	31	8	261	71	-8	+1	+0	+0	+5	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	251	225	45	9	1	6	20	77	4	5	1	200	277	329	606	129	271	31	8	263	72	-8	+1	+0	+0	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	769	689	136	28	3	17	60	239	13	16	4	197	274	321	595	123	272	31	8	258	64	-29	+2	+0	+0	+17	-1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	115	24	3	14	51	202	11	14	3	198	275	321	596	124	274	31	8	258	64	-24	+1	+0	+0	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2577	2341	477	99	12	47	171	771	46	93	15	204	271	317	588	113	280	30	7	263	64	-63	+4	+0	+0	+35	-2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	120	25	3	12	43	194	12	23	4	203	271	317	588	114	278	30	7	263	64	-25	+1	+0	+0	+14	-1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.2	770	17	16	198	271	325	+0	+0	-0.5	-0.3
/162	664	15	14	+0.0	+0.0	-0.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andy Lugo (OGILVIE)	22	50	45	50	35	175/249/272	97	260	4	7	34%	7%	49	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gabriel Guerrero 2016 · AA	22	45→51	41→45	51→50	35	219/249/320	101	302	9	11	30%	4%	58	-1.7	216/248/318	102	289	8	6	27%	4%	57	-1.8	226/252/330	103	307	10	4	29%	3%	59	-1.3
✕Trendon Craig 2022 · A	22	47	39→40	49→60	41	219/280/308	89	319	6	13	31%	7%	68	-1.0	220/288/295	75	355	4	17	36%	8%	68	-1.0	219/291/286	67	357	4	22	36%	8%	64	-0.6
✕Marcus Wilson 2019 · A	22	43→50	43→50	49→50	41	210/269/319	109	307	10	12	33%	7%	66	-1.1	204/271/334	130	328	14	13	39%	8%	71	-0.8	183/267/329	146	306	16	16	42%	9%	66	-0.8
✕Tyler Henson 2010 · AA	22	44→51	41→45	50→55	35	214/254/312	98	308	9	12	33%	4%	58	-1.7	213/258/310	97	314	8	9	33%	5%	59	-1.6	215/270/330	115	325	9	15	35%	6%	67	-0.7
✕Eduardo Diaz 2019 · A	22	43→45	41→50	53→50	35	209/250/310	101	293	8	12	31%	4%	57	-1.8	212/257/333	121	287	12	11	30%	4%	65	-1.2	208/252/338	130	279	14	13	30%	4%	62	-1.1
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2022 · A	22	42→52	41→45	48→50	38	208/254/308	100	283	9	9	29%	5%	57	-1.8	235/289/328	93	322	9	12	28%	6%	76	-0.4	235/295/316	82	324	8	12	28%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Christopher Bostick 2015 · A	22	42→52	44→45	52→55	40	208/261/328	120	289	10	15	31%	6%	65	-1.2	221/268/329	108	291	8	14	26%	5%	68	-1.0	235/286/338	103	306	8	7	25%	5%	73	-0.5
✕Lane Adams 2012 · A	22	43→46	40→45	54→60	39	205/258/297	92	300	6	12	33%	6%	57	-1.8	220/269/328	108	296	10	19	28%	6%	68	-1.0	227/280/350	123	310	14	36	30%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Jeff Bianchi 2009 · A	22	43→53	42→45	50	36	213/246/323	110	285	8	12	28%	4%	58	-1.7	237/273/335	98	314	7	15	26%	5%	70	-0.8	248/287/333	84	315	6	17	22%	5%	73	-0.5
✕Angel Morales 2012 · A	22	45→48	42→45	51→50	38	211/269/316	105	323	8	14	36%	6%	65	-1.2	186/246/293	107	304	10	11	39%	7%	52	-2.2	166/232/277	110	271	11	10	40%	7%	41	-2.1
✕Niko Decolati 2021 · A	23	43→46	42→45	51→55	36	211/268/314	103	298	9	13	31%	4%	65	-1.2	212/283/302	90	310	8	19	32%	7%	68	-1.0	205/288/285	81	300	7	22	31%	9%	64	-0.6
✕Kenedy Corona 2022 · A	22	43→42	39→50	52→55	39	206/260/294	87	286	6	20	29%	5%	57	-1.8	210/269/338	128	294	14	23	32%	7%	71	-0.8	201/266/326	124	278	13	27	31%	7%	64	-1.0
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2021 · A	22	45	39→40	52→60	40	212/268/302	90	310	6	12	32%	7%	61	-1.5	186/266/262	76	308	6	22	38%	9%	53	-2.1	145/240/204	59	242	5	33	39%	9%	30	-1.1
✕Alexis Bastardo 2016 · A	22	47	39→40	51→55	42	221/289/308	87	302	5	12	27%	6%	72	-0.7	195/245/259	64	276	4	12	29%	5%	42	-2.9	176/223/225	50	245	4	16	29%	4%	25	-1.4
✕José Barrero 2020 · A	22	45→47	40→50	49→55	36	215/262/316	100	292	7	11	28%	4%	63	-1.4	213/265/325	112	301	11	13	32%	5%	66	-1.1	181/250/321	140	264	17	24	36%	6%	59	-1.0
✕Charlie Culberson 2011 · A	22	46→52	41→45	50	39	224/264/322	98	288	9	13	26%	4%	64	-1.3	219/249/328	109	286	10	13	26%	3%	60	-1.6	254/306/422	167	324	18	9	26%	6%	98	+0.5
✕Narciso Crook 2017 · A	22	38→43	42→50	51→50	32	191/227/294	103	284	10	11	36%	4%	44	-2.8	207/257/322	115	306	10	10	34%	5%	62	-1.4	206/268/351	145	302	15	14	35%	6%	70	-0.6
✕Tyler Goeddel 2015 · A	22	45→51	41→45	56→55	41	216/273/323	107	303	7	18	30%	6%	68	-1.0	226/286/335	109	292	8	17	24%	7%	76	-0.4	225/288/328	103	283	8	18	22%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Chris Shehan 2009 · A	22	46	41→45	52→50	40	220/274/319	99	296	8	9	28%	5%	68	-1.0	209/254/291	82	304	4	9	31%	5%	53	-2.1	211/245/291	81	313	4	8	33%	4%	47	-1.6
✕Justin Trapp 2013 · A	22	43→45	42→45	54→55	40	211/268/319	108	294	9	17	30%	6%	65	-1.2	217/269/309	92	295	8	15	28%	6%	63	-1.3	214/266/294	80	289	7	16	27%	5%	56	-1.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps