Andy Lugo — OGILVIE

Andy LugoIF Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 160 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION109 act + 161 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†41

AVG/OBP/SLG.178 / .250 / .267

PA161

HR2

K%34

BB%7

BABIP267

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	242	223	54	6	2	2	8	49	8	21	2	242	293	314	607	72	297	20	3	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	242	220	70	11	2	2	11	35	8	21	2	318	372	414	786	95	366	14	5	351	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	2 teams	—	420	389	76	19	1	3	20	137	11	28	4	195	255	272	527	77	293	33	5	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	2 teams	—	420	377	99	30	1	3	31	88	11	28	4	263	336	371	707	109	336	21	7	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	280	257	54	11	2	6	17	83	2	10	1	210	264	339	603	128	279	30	6	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	280	248	70	18	3	7	24	59	2	10	1	282	348	464	812	181	339	21	9	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	MIN	—	109	91	8	0	0	2	13	45	3	3	0	88	224	154	378	66	130	41	12	181	-3	-13	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.9
YTD	22	A+	MIN	—	109	83	9	0	0	2	18	33	3	3	0	108	280	181	461	72	140	30	17	232	36	-8	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.4
ROS	22	A+	MIN	0%	161	146	26	5	1	2	11	55	3	4	0	178	250	267	517	89	261	34	7	239	41	-11	+1	+0	+0	+5	-0.6
ROS	22	MLB	MIN	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						261	0	0	226	31	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	MIN	—	110	92	8	0	0	2	13	45	3	3	0	87	222	152	374	65	128	41	12	181	-3	-13	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.9
TOT	22	A+	MIN	—	270	237	34	5	1	4	24	100	6	7	0	143	240	224	463	80	221	37	9	215	23	-23	+1	+0	+0	+8	-1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	MIN	35%	317	286	54	11	1	6	23	103	5	7	1	189	261	297	558	108	267	32	7	255	53	-17	+1	+0	+0	+9	-0.7
2028	24	MLB	MIN	46%	394	355	70	14	2	8	30	124	6	9	1	197	271	315	587	118	271	31	8	265	61	-17	+1	+0	+0	+11	-0.5
2029	25	MLB	MIN	52%	437	394	79	16	2	10	33	135	7	9	1	201	274	327	602	127	272	31	8	270	65	-17	+1	+0	+0	+12	-0.4
2030	26	MLB	MIN	54%	463	417	84	17	2	11	36	142	7	10	1	201	276	331	607	129	272	31	8	273	67	-17	+2	+0	+0	+13	-0.3
2027	23	MLB	MIN	35%	110	99	18	4	0	2	8	36	2	2	0	182	257	283	540	101	268	33	7	244	45	-7	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.3
2028	24	MLB	MIN	46%	182	163	32	6	1	4	14	57	3	4	0	196	272	319	591	123	271	31	8	254	53	-10	+1	+0	+0	+5	-0.4
2029	25	MLB	MIN	52%	226	204	40	8	1	5	17	70	3	5	1	196	268	319	586	123	272	31	8	260	57	-11	+1	+0	+0	+6	-0.4
2030	26	MLB	MIN	54%	251	226	45	9	1	6	19	77	4	5	1	199	273	327	601	128	273	31	8	262	59	-12	+1	+0	+0	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	770	693	135	27	3	17	58	240	12	16	2	195	269	316	585	121	268	31	8	257	55	-39	+2	+0	+0	+22	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	114	23	3	14	49	203	10	14	2	195	269	316	585	121	270	31	8	257	55	-33	+2	+0	+0	+18	-1.3
Career	—			—	2714	2467	497	99	13	48	178	828	49	98	11	201	269	310	579	109	279	31	7	259	56	-133	+15	+0	+0	+77	-4.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	119	24	3	11	43	198	12	23	3	201	270	308	578	107	280	30	7	259	56	-32	+3	+0	+0	+18	-1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	242	220	70	11	2	2	11	35	8	21	2	318	372	414	786	95	366	14	5	351	126	+7	+3	—	—	+7	1.8
2024	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	79	71	16	4	0	0	5	20	2	3	1	225	291	282	573	56	314	25	6	265	61	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	341	306	83	26	1	3	26	68	9	25	3	271	346	392	738	121	340	20	8	334	114	+5	+4	—	—	+10	1.9
2025	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	280	248	70	18	3	7	24	59	2	10	1	282	348	464	812	181	339	21	9	353	128	+9	+2	—	—	+8	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	770	17	16	198	269	321	+0	+0	-0.8	-0.4
	/162	664	15	14	198	269	321	+0.0	+0.0	-0.7	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andy Lugo (OGILVIE)	22	50	45	50	35	143/240/224	80	221	4	7	37%	9%	23	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gabriel Guerrero 2016 · AA	22	44→50	41→45	51→50	34	214/245/313	98	306	8	11	32%	4%	49	-1.8	209/241/312	103	286	9	6	29%	4%	46	-2.0	222/247/328	106	306	11	4	31%	3%	51	-1.3
✕Tyler Henson 2010 · AA	22	44→51	41→45	50→55	35	214/254/313	98	308	9	12	33%	4%	53	-1.5	208/254/304	96	315	8	9	34%	5%	51	-1.7	214/270/338	123	327	11	15	36%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Trendon Craig 2022 · A	22	47	39→40	49→60	41	221/280/311	90	320	6	13	31%	6%	64	-0.8	224/292/298	74	357	4	17	35%	8%	66	-0.6	225/296/291	66	361	4	22	35%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Marcus Wilson 2019 · A	22	44→49	43→50	49→50	41	213/271/324	111	307	10	12	33%	7%	64	-0.8	203/271/337	134	330	15	13	40%	8%	68	-0.5	187/269/341	154	316	17	16	43%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Eduardo Diaz 2019 · A	22	42→44	41→50	53→50	35	207/249/308	101	292	8	12	31%	4%	50	-1.7	210/254/333	123	287	13	11	30%	4%	59	-1.1	201/245/332	131	273	14	13	31%	4%	52	-1.2
✕Jeff Bianchi 2009 · A	22	43→53	42→45	50	36	213/246/323	110	285	8	12	28%	4%	53	-1.5	233/270/333	100	311	8	15	26%	4%	65	-0.7	239/275/321	82	293	8	11	21%	5%	61	-0.5
✕Jhonny Santos 2019 · A	22	42→43	40→50	49→50	41	207/257/300	93	280	7	14	28%	6%	51	-1.7	210/266/344	134	281	15	13	30%	6%	67	-0.5	192/249/359	166	239	24	9	31%	7%	62	-0.4
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2021 · A	22	45	39→40	52→60	40	212/268/302	90	310	6	12	32%	7%	56	-1.3	184/266/257	73	309	5	22	38%	9%	46	-2.0	142/239/196	53	243	5	33	39%	9%	17	-1.1
✕Angel Morales 2012 · A	22	44→48	42→45	50	38	209/267/314	105	325	9	14	36%	6%	59	-1.1	180/241/290	110	300	11	11	41%	7%	43	-2.2	158/224/271	114	261	12	10	42%	7%	30	-2.2
✕Bubba Starling 2015 · A	22	41→46	43→45	54→50	38	202/259/310	108	297	10	13	34%	6%	56	-1.3	199/243/323	124	288	13	10	34%	5%	52	-1.6	216/254/336	119	279	14	10	27%	4%	56	-0.6
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2022 · A	22	41→51	42→45	48→50	38	205/253/308	104	278	10	9	30%	5%	52	-1.6	235/290/335	100	323	11	12	29%	6%	75	-0.0	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Kenedy Corona 2022 · A	22	43→40	39→45	52→55	39	205/259/290	85	285	6	20	29%	5%	50	-1.8	206/268/333	127	294	13	23	33%	7%	66	-0.6	198/265/322	124	280	13	27	32%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Eladio Moronta 2011 · A	22	42	39→45	45→50	38	201/259/284	83	281	6	13	30%	5%	49	-1.8	205/263/296	91	295	8	9	31%	5%	53	-1.5	206/264/309	104	273	11	9	28%	4%	63	-0.3
✕Justin Trapp 2013 · A	22	43→45	42→45	54→55	40	209/265/315	106	290	9	17	30%	6%	59	-1.1	217/268/309	92	296	9	15	28%	5%	59	-1.1	215/266/296	81	292	8	16	28%	5%	51	-1.4
✕Tyler Goeddel 2015 · A	22	45→50	41→45	55	41	214/271/320	106	305	7	18	31%	6%	63	-0.9	224/283/335	111	292	9	17	25%	7%	72	-0.2	220/282/325	105	280	9	18	23%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Niko Decolati 2021 · A	23	42→47	41→40	50→55	35	204/259/300	97	291	9	13	32%	4%	53	-1.5	209/279/294	85	312	7	19	33%	7%	60	-1.0	201/283/279	78	300	6	22	32%	8%	56	-0.7
✕Orlando Calixte 2014 · AA	22	43→51	43→45	45→55	37	212/251/327	115	295	10	10	32%	5%	56	-1.3	214/251/315	101	291	9	15	29%	5%	52	-1.6	233/273/324	91	306	9	20	26%	5%	61	-0.4
✕Lane Adams 2012 · A	22	43→46	40→50	54→60	39	206/259/299	93	302	7	12	33%	6%	52	-1.6	219/267/333	114	294	11	19	28%	6%	65	-0.7	228/279/363	136	311	16	36	31%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Angel Aponte 2022 · A	22	45	40→45	55	39	213/272/305	92	303	7	20	30%	5%	59	-1.1	201/256/293	92	297	8	19	33%	6%	50	-1.8	181/236/266	85	270	7	23	34%	5%	32	-1.1
✕Chris Shehan 2009 · A	22	46	41→45	52→50	40	220/274/319	99	296	8	9	28%	5%	63	-0.8	210/255/292	82	306	4	9	31%	5%	48	-1.9	211/245/291	81	313	4	8	33%	4%	40	-1.5