Andy Lugo

IF Cedar Rapids Kernels
Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 160 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202420A+/A2 orgs420.263/.336/.37132852—.206/.267/.284
202521A+MIN280.282/.348/.46471076—.230/.286/.375
202622A+MIN232.169/.297/.2865634—.144/.249/.234
2027PROJMLE23MLBMIN1.196/.267/.3020061-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB24MLBMIN51.201/.273/.3171167-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB25MLBMIN103.205/.277/.3262270-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Speed63
BB%61
Z-Con%53
Chase%46
ISO31
K%29
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%
CompsNiko Decolati (age 23) · Eudy Pina (age 23) · Francisco Acuna (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†61
AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .267 / .302
PA1
HR0
K%32
BB%7
BABIP279
ISO107
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +2.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.2-0.1-0.1272829
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT50
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE35
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202218 ROKDSL BOS Blue — 242220 701122 11358 212 318372414786 95366 145 351 42 — — — — — —
202420 A+Greenville Drive — 7971 16400 5202 31 225291282573 56314 256 265 20 — — — — — —
202420 ASalem Red Sox — 341306 832613 26689 253 271346392738 121340 208 334 59 — — — — — —
202521 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 280248 701837 24592 101 282348464812 181339 219 353 76 — — — — — —
202622 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 232189 32515 30666 63 169297286583 116223 2813 271 34 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202218 ROK MLEDSL BOS Blue — 242223 46611 8428 212 206259256515 49244 173 231 42 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLEGreenville Drive — 7974 13300 3272 31 176228216444 41270 344 198 20 — — — — — —
202420 A MLESalem Red Sox — 341314 671912 18989 253 213276299575 86299 295 255 59 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 280256 591336 18762 101 230286375661 145288 276 281 76 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 232201 29414 22846 63 144249234483 90203 369 218 34 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEDSL BOS Blue — 242223 46611 8428 212 206259256515 49246 173 231 42 — — — — — —
202218 ROK RAWDSL BOS Blue — 242220 701122 11358 212 318372414786 95366 145 351 42 — — — — — —
202420 A MLE2 teams — 420387 802212 2212511 284 207269284553 78300 305 244 51 — — — — — —
202420 A RAW2 teams — 420377 993013 318811 284 263336371707 109336 217 321 51 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 280256 591336 18762 101 230286375661 145298 276 281 76 — — — — — —
202521 A+ RAWCedar Rapids Kernels — 280248 701837 24592 101 282348464812 181339 219 353 76 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 232201 29414 22846 63 144249234483 90216 369 218 34 — — — — — —
202622 A+ RAWCedar Rapids Kernels — 232189 32515 30666 63 169297286583 116223 2813 271 34 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEDSL BOS Blue — 242224 46611 8428 212 205259254514 49244 173 231 42 — — — — — —
202420 A MLE2 teams — 420384 802212 2212511 284 208269286556 78294 305 244 51 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 280258 591336 18762 101 229286372658 143288 276 281 76 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 232202 29414 22846 63 144249233482 89203 369 218 34 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202420 A MLE2 teams — 420384 802212 2212511 284 208269286556 78294 305 244 51 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 280258 591336 18762 101 229286372658 143288 276 281 76 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 232202 29414 22846 63 144249233482 89203 369 218 34 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLEMIN 0% 342309 621326 251095 82 196267301568 105279 327 259 61 -16 +1 +0 +0 +7 -0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202723 MLB CTXMIN 0% 11 0000 000 00 196267302569 106279 00 259 61 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLEMIN 30% 168151 30613 12523 41 201273316589 115281 317 267 67 -7 +0 +0 +0 +4 -0.3
202925 MLB MLEMIN 44% 233211 43915 17723 51 205277326602 121282 317 272 70 -8 +1 +0 +0 +5 -0.3
202824 MLB CTXMIN 30% 5146 9201 4161 10 201273317590 115281 318 267 67 -2 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.1
202925 MLB CTXMIN 44% 10392 19412 8322 21 205277326603 121282 318 273 70 -4 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 154138 28613 12483 31 203281326607 123284 318 271 57 -6 +0 +0 +0 +3 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650582 11825413 5120313 134 203282326608 124284 318 271 57 -24 +1 +0 +0 +14 -0.9
Career— MLE — 17101551 31165923 10949435 7713 201268299567 98275 296 252 57 -21 +1 +0 +0 +12 -0.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650590 1182539 4118813 295 200267298565 98274 296 252 57 -26 +1 +0 +0 +14 -1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 232 PAwOBA .268 → .218 (−49)K% 28.4% → 36.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.45%÷1.000×1.270——36.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.93%÷1.000×0.710—×1.0129.29%
HBP% /PA2.59%—×0.790—×1.0122.07%
Singles /BIP17.07%÷1.000×0.920×1.008×1.01216.02%
Doubles /BIP4.07%÷1.000×0.810×1.008×1.0123.36%
Triples /BIP0.81%÷1.000×0.850×1.008×1.0120.70%
Home runs /BIP4.07%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0123.29%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .268 → .218; ISO .116 → .094; BABIP .223 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 280 PAwOBA .348 → .281 (−67)K% 21.1% → 27.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.07%÷0.979×1.270——27.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.57%÷0.989×0.710—×1.0276.32%
HBP% /PA0.71%—×0.790—×1.0270.58%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷0.990×0.920×0.950×1.02720.16%
Doubles /BIP9.52%÷1.088×0.810×0.950×1.0276.92%
Triples /BIP1.59%÷0.943×0.850×0.950×1.0271.40%
Home runs /BIP3.70%÷0.962×0.800—×1.0273.16%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .348 → .281; ISO .181 → .143; BABIP .339 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASalem Red Sox · 341 PAwOBA .326 → .255 (−71)K% 19.9% → 28.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.94%÷0.948×1.360——28.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.62%÷1.011×0.690—×1.0305.36%
HBP% /PA2.64%—×0.780—×1.0302.12%
Singles /BIP22.27%÷0.989×0.920×0.968×1.03020.67%
Doubles /BIP10.92%÷1.051×0.830×0.968×1.0308.60%
Triples /BIP0.42%÷1.150×0.910×0.968×1.0300.33%
Home runs /BIP1.26%÷0.933×0.800—×1.0301.11%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .326 → .255; ISO .121 → .090; BABIP .340 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 79 PAwOBA .259 → .198 (−61)K% 25.3% → 34.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.32%÷0.960×1.310——34.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.33%÷0.924×0.600—×1.0424.28%
HBP% /PA2.53%—×0.770—×1.0422.03%
Singles /BIP23.53%÷1.013×0.870×0.992×1.04220.89%
Doubles /BIP7.84%÷1.037×0.780×0.992×1.0426.10%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.927×0.850×0.992×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.043×0.880—×1.0420.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .259 → .198; ISO .056 → .040; BABIP .314 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL BOS Blue · 242 PAwOBA .346 → .231 (−114)K% 14.5% → 17.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.46%÷1.010×1.220——17.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.55%÷0.954×0.700—×1.0083.36%
HBP% /PA3.31%—×0.700—×1.0082.33%
Singles /BIP29.73%÷0.996×0.680×1.009×1.00820.63%
Doubles /BIP5.95%÷1.112×0.600×1.009×1.0083.26%
Triples /BIP1.08%÷0.900×0.600×1.009×1.0080.73%
Home runs /BIP1.08%÷0.893×0.470—×1.0080.57%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .346 → .231; ISO .095 → .054; BABIP .366 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).