Israfell Bautista

3B FCL Rays

Age 20 S/R 6'2" / 155 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	218	.278/.412/.324	0	45	41	—	.176/.282/.202
2026	19	ROKTB	207	.224/.381/.242	0	34	36	—	.170/.277/.188
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBTB	317	.200/.276/.260	2	10	55	-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBTB	87	.209/.286/.285	1	3	63	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBTB	177	.214/.291/.301	2	5	69	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed86

Z-Con%82

BB%70

Whiff%49

K%37

wRC+27

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsNasim Nuñez (age 20) · Candido Pimentel (age 20) · Chris Garia (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 176 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .274 / .258

PA176

HR1

SB6

K%28

BB%9

ISO61

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	168	148	41	3	1	0	15	32	2	39	5	277	352	311	662	34	347	19	9	303	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	218	176	49	4	2	0	38	35	2	45	5	278	412	324	736	45	348	16	17	345	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	207	161	36	1	1	0	38	50	3	34	6	224	381	242	623	19	313	24	18	301	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	168	153	30	2	1	0	10	40	2	39	5	196	255	222	477	26	250	24	6	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	218	188	33	3	1	0	26	43	2	45	5	176	282	202	485	27	224	20	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	207	176	30	1	1	0	23	72	3	34	6	170	277	188	465	17	264	35	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	168	153	30	2	1	0	10	40	2	39	5	196	255	222	477	26	261	24	6	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	168	148	41	3	1	0	15	32	2	39	5	277	352	311	662	34	347	19	9	303	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	218	188	33	3	1	0	26	43	2	45	5	176	282	202	485	27	228	20	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	218	176	49	4	2	0	38	35	2	45	5	278	412	324	736	45	348	16	17	345	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	207	176	30	1	1	0	23	72	3	34	6	170	277	188	465	17	278	35	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	207	161	36	1	1	0	38	50	3	34	6	224	381	242	623	19	313	24	18	301	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	168	154	30	2	1	0	10	40	2	39	5	195	255	221	475	26	250	24	6	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	218	188	33	3	1	0	26	43	2	45	5	176	282	202	485	27	224	20	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	207	179	30	1	1	0	23	72	3	34	6	168	277	184	462	17	264	35	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	168	154	30	2	1	0	10	40	2	39	5	195	255	221	475	26	250	24	6	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	218	188	33	3	1	0	26	43	2	45	5	176	282	202	485	27	224	20	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	207	179	30	1	1	0	23	72	3	34	6	168	277	184	462	17	264	35	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TB	0%	317	284	58	9	2	2	27	87	3	10	2	200	276	260	537	61	279	27	9	249	55	-17	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TB	34%	252	226	46	7	2	2	22	68	2	8	1	206	283	283	566	77	281	27	9	261	63	-11	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	TB	48%	366	327	70	11	2	5	32	97	4	10	2	211	288	300	589	89	283	27	9	270	69	-14	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	TB	54%	441	396	85	13	3	7	38	116	4	12	2	215	292	313	605	98	284	26	9	276	73	-14	+2	+0	+2	+10	-0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	TB	55%	491	440	96	15	3	8	43	128	5	13	2	218	295	323	618	105	285	26	9	281	76	-14	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	TB	56%	519	464	102	16	3	9	45	134	5	13	2	220	297	330	627	109	286	26	9	284	79	-13	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	TB	56%	535	478	106	17	3	10	47	138	5	13	2	220	297	331	628	110	286	26	9	285	79	-13	+2	+0	+2	+12	0.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	TB	55%	540	483	106	17	3	10	47	140	5	13	2	219	296	328	624	108	285	26	9	283	78	-14	+2	+0	+2	+12	0.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	TB	55%	539	482	105	17	3	9	47	141	5	12	2	217	294	323	617	105	284	26	9	280	76	-15	+2	-1	+2	+12	-0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	TB	58%	531	475	102	16	3	9	46	141	5	11	2	215	291	316	607	101	282	27	9	276	73	-17	+1	-1	+2	+12	-0.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	TB	60%	522	467	99	15	3	8	45	140	5	10	2	211	287	308	595	96	280	27	9	271	70	-19	+1	-2	+2	+11	-0.7
2028	21	MLB CTX	TB	34%	87	78	16	2	1	1	8	24	1	3	0	209	286	285	570	76	285	28	9	263	63	-4	+1	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	TB	48%	177	158	33	5	1	2	15	47	2	5	1	214	291	301	592	88	286	27	8	271	69	-7	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	TB	54%	239	214	46	7	1	4	21	63	2	7	1	218	294	314	608	96	288	26	9	277	73	-8	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	TB	55%	272	243	53	8	2	4	24	71	3	7	1	221	297	324	621	103	289	26	9	282	76	-8	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	TB	56%	291	261	58	9	2	5	25	75	3	7	1	223	299	330	629	107	290	26	9	286	79	-7	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	TB	56%	301	269	59	9	2	5	26	78	3	7	1	223	299	331	630	108	289	26	9	286	79	-8	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	TB	55%	299	268	59	9	2	5	26	78	3	7	1	221	298	328	626	107	289	26	9	284	78	-8	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	TB	55%	295	264	58	9	2	5	26	77	3	7	1	219	296	323	619	104	287	26	9	281	76	-8	+1	-0	+1	+6	-0.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	TB	58%	308	275	60	9	2	5	27	82	3	6	1	217	293	317	610	100	286	27	9	278	73	-10	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	TB	60%	314	281	61	9	2	5	27	84	3	6	1	214	289	308	598	95	283	27	9	273	70	-11	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2583	2311	503	76	17	41	225	679	26	62	9	218	294	318	613	101	288	26	9	280	70	-78	+9	-2	+9	+56	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	126	19	4	10	57	171	7	16	2	216	295	314	609	98	287	26	9	280	70	-20	+2	-1	+2	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5505	4912	1042	155	32	78	486	1446	54	239	36	212	290	304	595	92	282	26	9	271	70	-154	+16	-4	+18	+106	-1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	123	18	4	9	57	171	6	28	4	212	289	303	592	91	282	26	9	271	70	-20	+2	-1	+2	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Sam Bohne'16-'26 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,593 PA	3.9	2,593	16	75	230*	300*	367*	+13	+3	2.8	2.8
/162	664	4	19	+3.4	+0.8	0.7	pk7: 3
#4Ray Mack'38-'47 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,016 PA	4.5	3,016	34	35	223*	288*	357*	+11	-7	1.7	2.7
/162	664	7	8	+2.4	-1.5	0.4	pk7: 4
#5Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.2	2,759	44	68	216	290	316	+10	+3	0.8	1.1
/162	664	11	16	+2.4	+0.7	0.2	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Israfell Bautista (OGILVIE)	20	45	20	60	60	198/274/258	60	279	1	6	28%	9%	55	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nasim Nuñez 2021 · A	20	41→51	35→30	57→65	47	191/265/249	58	277	2	20	30%	9%	49	-2.4	215/301/265	50	313	2	38	28%	11%	66	-1.1	214/299/272	58	299	5	52	27%	10%	65	-1.0
✕Candido Pimentel 2010 · A	20	45	35→30	53→55	54	207/295/272	65	273	2	17	23%	11%	65	-1.2	211/275/265	54	294	2	15	26%	8%	55	-1.9	234/284/275	41	327	1	17	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Chris Garia 2013 · A	20	43→53	34→40	53→60	48	201/272/253	53	262	2	21	23%	8%	52	-2.2	217/261/297	80	293	4	24	26%	5%	57	-1.8	233/273/343	109	307	8	32	26%	4%	68	-0.6
✕Frainyer Chavez 2019 · A	20	46→47	38→40	54→50	42	217/271/293	76	299	5	21	28%	6%	61	-1.5	207/269/264	57	287	2	13	26%	7%	53	-2.1	223/291/306	84	291	8	18	25%	8%	69	-0.7
✕Jesus Galindo 2010 · A	19	42→50	34→30	55→65	51	192/290/246	54	275	1	19	28%	10%	59	-1.6	200/284/251	51	263	1	32	22%	9%	57	-1.8	233/284/297	64	318	2	38	25%	5%	63	-0.8
✕Ricardo Ferreira 2015 · A	20	46	36→30	55→60	54	207/312/275	67	298	3	21	28%	12%	74	-0.6	231/313/303	72	312	3	22	24%	10%	79	-0.2	242/324/311	68	323	3	29	23%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Lucius Fox 2017 · A	20	42→50	38→40	55→60	43	198/264/277	79	283	5	20	30%	7%	55	-2.0	217/285/288	71	314	4	22	30%	7%	65	-1.2	194/260/277	83	283	8	24	32%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Carlos Willoughby 2009 · A	20	44→43	34→40	58→60	53	204/295/255	51	259	1	25	20%	10%	62	-1.4	210/293/276	66	262	2	26	19%	9%	65	-1.2	205/284/272	67	257	1	27	19%	8%	59	-1.0
✕Luis Durango 2023 · A	20	45	35→30	53→70	48	209/290/266	57	271	3	24	22%	8%	63	-1.4	216/288/274	58	294	2	32	25%	6%	63	-1.3	249/303/294	44	325	0	54	21%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Roberto Caro 2014 · A	20	41→40	35→40	55→60	51	191/273/258	66	249	1	16	22%	9%	54	-2.0	191/269/267	76	262	2	18	25%	8%	54	-2.0	211/282/288	76	323	2	26	32%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Reidy Mercado 2021 · A	20	42	36→30	55→60	43	199/255/261	62	266	3	25	25%	6%	47	-2.5	193/244/251	58	302	3	19	34%	6%	40	-3.0	173/221/212	39	280	1	25	36%	5%	20	-1.1
✕Geraldo Quintero 2022 · A	20	38→47	35→40	52→60	47	181/251/244	63	237	2	17	23%	8%	42	-2.9	216/281/305	89	285	5	23	24%	7%	68	-1.0	218/285/304	87	285	5	28	24%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→44	38→30	53→60	41	204/261/287	83	286	4	12	29%	6%	55	-1.9	223/282/290	67	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	230/324/274	45	312	0	26	23%	11%	74	-0.3
✕Carlos Garcia 2012 · A	20	42→50	34→40	55	51	194/267/251	58	239	1	22	18%	8%	50	-2.3	228/278/294	66	284	3	17	20%	6%	63	-1.4	243/290/305	62	300	3	21	19%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Billy Hamilton 2011 · A	20	44→54	37→40	62→70	39	206/251/284	77	291	3	28	29%	5%	50	-2.3	240/292/314	74	335	3	63	27%	7%	72	-0.7	252/305/341	89	324	4	80	22%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Juan Mosquera 2008 · A	20	43	33→30	48→55	58	195/304/239	44	264	1	17	24%	12%	63	-1.3	192/270/239	47	254	2	11	23%	9%	49	-2.4	181/239/208	28	219	0	9	16%	7%	26	-1.0
✕Randy Ventura 2017 · A	20	48→56	35→30	58→60	50	224/284/280	56	271	2	26	18%	7%	62	-1.4	234/278/276	42	326	1	19	27%	6%	58	-1.7	231/275/261	29	331	1	19	29%	5%	51	-1.5
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2013 · A	20	38	35→30	51→65	50	176/248/238	62	212	2	18	18%	8%	40	-3.1	199/280/263	64	250	2	26	19%	9%	57	-1.8	195/284/251	56	248	1	34	20%	10%	54	-0.7
✕Emmanuel Morel 2016 · A	19	42	34→30	52→55	53	193/282/250	57	259	1	17	24%	10%	56	-1.9	182/254/239	57	293	2	15	35%	8%	42	-2.9	139/207/173	34	251	0	17	41%	7%	8	-1.1
✕Willmer De La Cruz 2023 · A	20	44	37→30	50→55	51	202/294/273	71	297	4	17	30%	11%	66	-1.1	191/271/251	60	317	2	14	36%	9%	52	-2.2	149/242/181	32	268	0	19	40%	10%	24	-0.8

Israfell Bautista

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps