Yensi Rivas

SS DSL Mets Blue

Age 20 S/R 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2244ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL Mets Blue	185	.245/.357/.329	0	16	22	—	.148/.242/.204
2025	18	ROKDSL Mets Blue	164	.261/.378/.312	1	23	33	—	.166/.262/.179
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBNYM	274	.198/.268/.265	2	7	52	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBNYM	26	.197/.268/.272	0	1	58	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBNYM	80	.201/.273/.286	1	2	63	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Speed59

K%57

Z-Con%56

Chase%54

wOBA53

Whiff%53

CompsNasim Nuñez (age 20) · Jeremy Arocho (age 19) · Brainer Bonaci (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .266 / .262

PA48

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO67

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Mets Blue	—	185	155	38	5	4	0	20	50	7	16	7	245	357	329	686	84	352	27	11	315	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Mets Blue	—	164	138	36	4	0	1	21	33	5	23	8	261	378	312	690	51	337	20	13	327	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	185	162	24	3	3	0	13	63	7	16	7	148	242	204	445	56	224	34	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	164	145	24	2	0	0	14	41	5	23	8	166	262	179	442	14	232	25	9	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	185	162	24	3	3	0	13	63	7	16	7	148	242	204	445	56	235	34	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	—	185	155	38	5	4	0	20	50	7	16	7	245	357	329	686	84	352	27	11	315	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	164	145	24	2	0	0	14	41	5	23	8	166	262	179	442	14	231	25	9	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	—	164	138	36	4	0	1	21	33	5	23	8	261	378	312	690	51	337	20	13	327	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	185	163	24	3	3	0	13	63	7	16	7	147	242	202	444	55	224	34	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	164	144	24	2	0	0	14	41	5	23	8	167	262	181	443	14	232	25	9	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	185	163	24	3	3	0	13	63	7	16	7	147	242	202	444	55	224	34	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	164	144	24	2	0	0	14	41	5	23	8	167	262	181	443	14	232	25	9	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	274	248	49	7	2	2	20	77	4	7	1	198	268	265	532	67	276	28	7	246	52	-16	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYM	34%	76	69	15	2	1	1	6	21	1	2	0	203	274	281	554	78	278	28	8	254	58	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYM	48%	166	151	31	5	1	2	12	45	2	4	1	207	278	294	572	87	279	27	7	262	63	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYM	54%	262	236	51	8	2	4	20	70	4	7	1	211	282	305	587	94	281	27	8	268	67	-10	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYM	55%	352	317	67	10	3	5	27	93	5	9	2	214	285	314	600	100	282	26	8	273	71	-12	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYM	56%	403	363	79	12	3	7	31	106	6	10	2	216	288	321	609	105	283	26	8	276	73	-13	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYM	56%	435	393	84	13	3	7	33	115	6	11	2	216	288	322	610	106	283	26	8	277	73	-14	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYM	55%	448	405	86	13	3	7	34	119	6	11	2	215	287	320	607	105	282	27	8	275	72	-15	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYM	55%	452	408	86	13	3	7	35	121	6	10	2	213	285	316	600	102	282	27	8	273	71	-16	+1	-1	+5	+10	-0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYM	58%	446	403	85	13	3	7	34	120	6	9	2	211	282	310	592	98	280	27	8	269	68	-17	+1	-1	+5	+10	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYM	34%	26	24	5	1	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	197	268	272	540	75	269	27	8	249	58	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYM	48%	80	73	15	2	1	1	6	22	1	2	0	201	273	286	558	85	271	28	8	256	63	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYM	54%	142	128	26	4	1	2	11	38	2	4	1	205	276	297	573	92	272	27	8	262	67	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYM	55%	195	175	36	5	1	3	15	52	3	5	1	208	280	306	585	98	274	27	8	267	71	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYM	56%	226	204	43	6	2	4	17	59	3	6	1	210	282	312	594	103	274	26	8	270	73	-7	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYM	56%	245	221	47	7	2	4	19	64	3	6	1	210	282	314	596	104	274	26	8	271	73	-8	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYM	55%	248	224	47	7	2	4	19	66	3	6	1	209	281	311	592	102	274	27	8	269	72	-8	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYM	55%	248	224	47	7	2	4	19	66	3	6	1	207	279	307	586	99	273	27	8	267	71	-9	+1	-0	+3	+5	-0.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYM	58%	259	234	48	7	2	4	20	70	3	5	1	205	277	301	578	96	272	27	8	263	68	-10	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1669	1507	314	46	13	26	128	444	21	41	7	208	280	308	587	100	276	27	8	266	66	-59	+5	-1	+18	+36	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	122	18	5	10	50	173	8	16	3	208	279	307	586	99	275	27	8	266	66	-23	+2	-0	+7	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3437	3096	640	95	25	47	262	927	55	113	29	207	280	299	579	92	277	27	8	265	66	-110	+9	-2	+33	+67	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	121	18	5	9	50	175	10	21	5	206	280	300	581	94	277	27	8	265	66	-23	+2	-0	+7	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Mets Blue · 164 PAwOBA .319 → .217 (−102)K% 20.1% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.12%	÷0.994	×1.220	—	—	24.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.80%	÷1.011	×0.700	—	×0.995	8.82%
HBP% /PA	3.05%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	2.12%
Singles /BIP	29.52%	÷0.984	×0.680	×1.050	×0.995	21.31%
Doubles /BIP	3.81%	÷1.301	×0.600	×1.050	×0.995	1.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.95%	÷1.085	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.41%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 97, 2B 160, 3B 100, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .319 → .217; ISO .051 → .023; BABIP .337 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Mets Blue · 185 PAwOBA .313 → .201 (−112)K% 27.0% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.03%	÷0.964	×1.220	—	—	34.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷1.067	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.14%
HBP% /PA	3.78%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.67%
Singles /BIP	27.62%	÷1.035	×0.680	×0.971	×1.008	17.75%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.001	×0.600	×0.971	×1.008	2.79%
Triples /BIP	3.81%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.971	×1.008	2.49%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.967	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .313 → .201; ISO .084 → .052; BABIP .352 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	2.6	1,710	24	13	217*	284*	324*	+11	+37	2.1	2.9
/162	664	9	5	+4.2	+14.4	0.8	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
/162	664	3	21	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.6	1,716	26	41	214	282	314	+18	+18	1.0	1.1
/162	664	10	16	+7.1	+7.0	0.4	pk7: 1
#5David Howard'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	11	23	220*	280*	301*	+10	+23	-1.6	-0.8
/162	664	4	9	+3.7	+8.5	-0.6	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yensi Rivas (OGILVIE)	20	40	20	60	45	196/266/262	66	276	0	1	28%	7%	52	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nasim Nuñez 2021 · A	20	41→51	35→30	57→65	47	191/265/249	58	277	2	20	30%	9%	49	-2.4	215/301/265	50	313	2	38	28%	11%	66	-1.1	214/299/272	58	299	5	52	27%	10%	65	-1.0
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→44	38→30	53→60	41	204/261/287	83	286	4	12	29%	6%	55	-1.9	223/282/290	67	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	230/324/274	45	312	0	26	23%	11%	74	-0.3
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→46	38→45	53→50	43	192/253/278	86	262	5	13	27%	7%	51	-2.3	219/294/329	110	303	9	13	28%	9%	78	-0.3	221/301/335	114	300	11	14	28%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Frainyer Chavez 2019 · A	20	46→47	38→40	54→50	42	217/271/293	76	299	5	21	28%	6%	61	-1.5	207/269/264	57	287	2	13	26%	7%	53	-2.1	223/291/306	84	291	8	18	25%	8%	69	-0.7
✕Geraldo Quintero 2022 · A	20	38→47	35→40	52→60	47	181/251/244	63	237	2	17	23%	8%	42	-2.9	216/281/305	89	285	5	23	24%	7%	68	-1.0	218/285/304	87	285	5	28	24%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Lucius Fox 2017 · A	20	42→50	38→40	55→60	43	198/264/277	79	283	5	20	30%	7%	55	-2.0	217/285/288	71	314	4	22	30%	7%	65	-1.2	194/260/277	83	283	8	24	32%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2013 · A	20	38	35→30	51→65	50	176/248/238	62	212	2	18	18%	8%	40	-3.1	199/280/263	64	250	2	26	19%	9%	57	-1.8	195/284/251	56	248	1	34	20%	10%	54	-0.7
✕Emmanuel Morel 2017 · A	20	37	34→30	50→55	47	174/257/225	52	263	1	15	32%	10%	41	-3.0	194/259/259	65	313	2	13	36%	7%	49	-2.4	182/247/231	49	295	0	21	35%	6%	35	-0.9
✕Roberto Caro 2014 · A	20	41→40	35→40	55→60	51	191/273/258	66	249	1	16	22%	9%	54	-2.0	191/269/267	76	262	2	18	25%	8%	54	-2.0	211/282/288	76	323	2	26	32%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Cesar Gonzalez 2015 · A	20	42	36→40	54→60	43	195/260/262	67	275	2	19	28%	7%	49	-2.4	203/255/272	69	317	3	11	34%	6%	50	-2.3	184/229/215	32	332	0	4	42%	5%	23	-1.0
✕Raimundo De Los Santos 2024 · A	19	40	34→40	53→55	46	186/261/233	47	268	2	14	29%	8%	44	-2.8	194/271/245	51	308	2	22	34%	9%	51	-2.3	191/274/238	46	312	3	30	36%	10%	47	-0.9
✕Noah Miller 2023 · A	20	40→47	37→40	51→50	48	188/276/257	69	287	4	13	33%	10%	55	-1.9	205/266/280	75	274	6	8	25%	8%	56	-1.9	224/272/309	85	279	7	4	21%	6%	63	-1.2
✕Darwin Perez 2009 · A	20	44→53	36→40	54→50	46	203/275/276	73	292	3	10	29%	9%	59	-1.7	231/292/302	71	324	3	12	27%	8%	70	-0.8	238/302/305	67	328	3	14	26%	8%	72	-0.6
✕Chris Torres 2018 · A	20	43→38	36→30	51→55	46	198/270/268	70	289	2	14	30%	8%	55	-2.0	200/280/266	66	332	4	12	36%	10%	58	-1.7	182/272/238	56	306	3	15	37%	11%	47	-1.3
✕Estarlin De Los Santos 2007 · A	20	41→42	36→40	53→55	41	194/256/262	68	274	3	13	29%	6%	48	-2.5	211/260/281	70	297	3	17	28%	5%	53	-2.1	221/265/291	71	306	2	19	27%	4%	54	-1.0
✕Adenson Chourio 2006 · A	20	41	35→30	49→60	42	192/256/248	56	284	2	18	31%	7%	45	-2.7	213/287/256	43	263	1	30	18%	8%	59	-1.7	223/301/251	28	270	0	39	16%	8%	60	-0.7
✕Reidy Mercado 2021 · A	20	42	36→30	55→60	43	199/255/261	62	266	3	25	25%	6%	47	-2.5	193/244/251	58	302	3	19	34%	6%	40	-3.0	173/221/212	39	280	1	25	36%	5%	20	-1.1
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	37→45	40→45	54→50	42	182/250/279	97	263	6	9	32%	7%	50	-2.3	207/280/322	115	282	9	13	28%	9%	71	-0.8	209/284/324	115	280	10	14	27%	9%	71	-0.6
✕Joseph Rosa 2017 · A	20	46→45	37→40	52→50	44	215/264/292	77	262	3	15	19%	5%	57	-1.8	203/262/275	72	279	5	13	27%	6%	53	-2.1	206/281/301	95	299	7	14	31%	8%	65	-0.8
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A	19	37	35→30	49→55	47	176/246/232	56	244	2	15	27%	8%	38	-3.2	191/286/234	43	258	1	14	23%	11%	55	-2.0	192/299/217	25	248	0	17	20%	12%	55	-0.6

Yensi Rivas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps