Ricardo Guzman — OGILVIE

Ricardo Guzman P DSL Tampa Bay

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 19 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%21.8%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	2	0	3	14	1	2	0	0%	1.5	7.1%	14.3%	-7.1%	0.0%	12.00	4.31	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	2	0	3	14	1	2	0	0%	1.5	7.1%	14.3%	-7.1%	0.0%	12.00	4.31	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	2	0	3	14	1	2	0	0%	1.5	7.1%	14.3%	-7.1%	0.0%	12.00	4.43	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	19	0	33	137	38	14	0	0%	1.7	18.9%	12.8%	6.1%	0.0%	3.31	3.13	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	19	0	33	137	38	14	0	0%	1.7	18.9%	12.8%	6.1%	0.0%	3.31	3.13	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	19	0	33	137	38	14	0	0%	1.7	27.7%	10.2%	17.5%	0.0%	3.31	2.06	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	—	18	0	19	80	17	10	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.8%	9.9%	2.9%	4.73	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	—	29	0	30	129	29	14	4	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.49	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	—	14	0	15	63	14	7	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	14	7	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.11	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	93	27	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		21	0	36	151	27	20	0	0%	1.7	17.8%	12.9%	4.9%	0.0%	4.04	3.23	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	0	200	847	151	109	0	0%	1.7	17.8%	12.9%	4.9%	0.0%	4.04	3.23	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricardo Guzman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	21.8%	11.8%	2.9%	—	4.49	22.7%	12.0%	30	-0.24	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	91
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	90
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	89
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	89
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	88
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	88
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	88
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	88
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	87
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	87
Will Kincanon R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.2%	11.5%	1.6%	.284	3.77	22.2%	10.0%	58	+0.02	3.75	122	87
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	86
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	86
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	86