Jesmaylin Arias — OGILVIE

Jesmaylin AriasOF ACL Padres

Age 19 L/L 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION266 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP247

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	153	39	11	1	1	17	41	3	2	1	255	341	359	701	105	336	23	10	317	100	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2025	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	196	169	30	8	1	3	21	62	3	3	1	178	280	290	570	112	252	32	11	262	63	-9	+0	—	—	+4	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	160	29	7	1	1	10	62	3	2	1	181	243	256	499	75	269	35	6	215	32	-14	+0	—	—	+4	-1.1
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	177	21	5	1	2	13	87	3	3	1	119	192	192	384	73	200	44	7	174	4	-22	+0	—	—	+4	-1.8
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	160	29	7	1	1	10	62	3	2	1	181	243	256	499	75	283	35	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	153	39	11	1	1	17	41	3	2	1	255	341	359	701	105	336	23	10	317	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	177	21	5	1	2	13	87	3	3	1	119	192	192	384	73	209	44	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	—	196	169	30	8	1	3	21	62	3	3	1	178	280	290	570	112	252	32	11	262	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	160	29	7	1	1	10	62	3	2	1	181	243	256	499	75	269	35	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	178	21	5	1	2	13	87	3	3	1	118	192	191	383	73	200	44	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	160	29	7	1	1	10	62	3	2	1	181	243	256	499	75	269	35	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	178	21	5	1	2	13	87	3	3	1	118	192	191	383	73	200	44	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	SD	—	266	238	45	12	1	6	17	70	8	10	3	189	266	324	590	134	236	26	6	261	63	-12	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	SD	—	185	155	42	11	1	8	21	31	6	7	2	271	379	510	889	239	286	17	11	386	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A RAW	SD	—	81	72	15	5	1	0	7	19	2	3	1	208	296	306	602	97	283	23	9	278	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	SD	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		250	30	10	255	59	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	SD	—	276	247	46	12	1	6	18	73	8	10	3	186	264	316	580	130	234	26	7	261	63	-12	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SD	34%	320	291	59	13	2	6	21	79	5	5	1	203	268	323	591	120	254	25	7	267	67	-13	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.7
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	48%	424	385	81	18	2	9	29	102	7	6	2	210	278	338	616	127	258	24	7	276	73	-14	+0	+0	-3	+9	-0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	SD	54%	495	449	96	21	3	11	35	117	8	7	2	214	283	347	630	134	260	24	7	282	77	-13	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	SD	57%	540	487	106	23	3	13	39	127	9	7	2	218	288	357	645	140	262	24	7	286	80	-13	+1	+0	-3	+12	-0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	SD	57%	568	513	112	24	3	14	41	132	9	8	2	218	288	359	646	140	263	23	7	288	81	-13	+1	+0	-3	+12	-0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	SD	60%	584	526	115	25	3	14	43	136	10	8	2	219	290	357	648	139	263	23	7	289	82	-13	+1	+0	-4	+13	-0.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	SD	62%	591	533	115	25	3	14	43	137	10	8	2	216	287	353	639	137	263	23	7	289	82	-13	+1	+0	-4	+13	-0.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	SD	63%	591	532	115	25	3	14	44	138	10	8	2	216	288	353	642	137	262	23	7	289	82	-13	+1	+0	-4	+13	-0.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	SD	65%	586	527	113	24	3	14	44	137	10	8	2	214	287	351	638	137	262	23	8	288	81	-13	+1	-1	-4	+13	-0.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	SD	65%	576	517	112	24	3	14	44	136	10	7	2	217	291	356	647	139	261	24	8	287	80	-14	+1	-1	-3	+12	-0.6
2027	20	MLB CTX	SD	34%	110	100	20	4	1	2	7	27	2	2	0	200	266	320	586	120	251	25	6	254	67	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	48%	205	186	38	8	1	4	14	49	3	3	1	204	271	323	594	118	255	24	7	263	73	-7	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	SD	54%	268	243	51	11	1	6	19	63	4	4	1	210	278	337	616	128	258	24	7	269	77	-7	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	SD	57%	306	276	60	13	2	7	22	72	5	4	1	217	287	355	642	138	259	24	7	273	80	-7	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	SD	57%	321	290	63	13	2	8	23	75	5	4	1	217	286	359	645	141	260	23	7	275	81	-7	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	SD	60%	352	317	68	14	2	9	26	82	6	5	1	215	287	356	643	142	260	23	7	276	82	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	SD	62%	369	333	71	15	2	9	27	86	6	5	1	213	284	351	636	138	260	23	7	276	82	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	SD	63%	375	338	72	15	2	9	28	87	6	5	1	213	285	349	634	136	259	23	7	276	82	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	SD	65%	381	343	73	15	2	9	29	89	6	5	1	213	286	347	633	134	259	23	8	275	81	-8	+1	-0	-2	+8	-0.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	SD	65%	374	337	72	15	2	9	28	88	6	5	1	214	286	350	636	136	258	24	7	273	80	-9	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3061	2763	588	123	17	72	223	718	49	42	9	213	283	348	631	135	259	23	7	273	75	-74	+5	-1	-18	+66	-2.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	125	26	4	15	47	152	10	9	2	213	283	348	630	135	259	23	7	273	75	-16	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5656	5106	1075	234	30	126	407	1393	94	77	21	211	281	342	623	132	262	25	7	279	75	-131	+7	-2	-32	+115	-4.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	123	27	3	14	47	160	11	9	2	210	281	337	618	128	261	25	7	279	75	-16	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.9	3,277	75	45	215	282	349	-20	+0	-1.0	-0.4
/162	664	15	9	-4.0	+0.0	-0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesmaylin Arias (OGILVIE)	19	20	30	40	40	193/259/298	105	250	3	5	25%	6%	59	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Herman Armas 2006 · A	19	37	36→45	41→50	44	179/250/243	64	257	4	7	30%	8%	42	-2.9	210/278/316	106	287	9	10	28%	7%	70	-0.9	212/283/329	117	282	11	12	27%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Jose Quero 2019 · A	20	38	39→40	44→30	44	188/251/268	79	246	7	3	26%	7%	48	-2.5	205/261/316	111	263	10	6	25%	7%	62	-1.4	196/247/344	148	225	15	4	21%	6%	68	-0.2
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	39	38→40	47→50	39	189/242/268	78	269	6	5	31%	6%	44	-2.8	186/245/258	72	280	3	6	32%	6%	43	-2.8	147/214/205	58	225	0	6	32%	6%	18	-1.5
✕Dahiandy Johnson 2019 · A	19	38	39→40	43→45	42	187/245/267	80	253	6	4	28%	6%	45	-2.7	201/263/294	93	259	8	6	25%	7%	59	-1.7	189/256/282	93	230	10	5	22%	7%	51	-1.0
✕Wilmer Oberto 2012 · A	19	39	38→50	41→45	45	188/259/266	79	261	6	8	29%	8%	51	-2.3	207/273/319	112	269	11	5	26%	6%	68	-1.0	202/266/322	120	260	12	3	26%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Leopoldo Correa 2011 · A	19	41	37→45	42→30	47	194/260/268	74	247	3	4	22%	7%	51	-2.2	214/272/303	89	268	7	3	22%	7%	63	-1.3	212/269/300	89	261	8	0	21%	6%	58	-0.5
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2017 · A	19	41	40	45→50	51	195/277/291	96	232	6	6	18%	8%	63	-1.3	219/297/321	102	266	8	11	20%	8%	78	-0.3	198/280/291	93	262	8	15	25%	9%	63	-0.5
✕Gabriel Moncada 2021 · A	19	42→41	35→45	45→40	41	197/248/259	62	276	3	6	28%	6%	44	-2.8	216/296/329	113	319	10	4	33%	9%	79	-0.2	206/289/334	128	301	13	2	33%	9%	75	-0.2
✕Oswal Leones 2021 · A	20	41	36→30	46→50	46	196/259/262	66	262	4	12	25%	7%	49	-2.4	198/260/265	67	297	3	8	31%	7%	50	-2.3	180/247/237	57	275	2	9	33%	7%	36	-1.1
✕Emilio King 2009 · A	19	38	37→45	44→40	41	184/245/258	74	245	5	6	26%	6%	43	-2.8	196/260/278	82	281	5	6	30%	5%	54	-2.0	205/257/297	92	296	6	4	31%	4%	54	-0.9
✕Leandro Pineda 2021 · A	19	37→47	36→45	44→45	43	180/244/238	58	245	3	6	27%	6%	38	-3.2	177/256/265	88	271	6	6	34%	8%	50	-2.3	210/283/339	129	268	13	5	26%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Adonis Figuereo 2019 · A	18	37	38→30	46→45	44	182/246/261	79	250	5	8	28%	7%	45	-2.7	193/264/271	78	270	6	6	28%	8%	53	-2.1	194/266/259	66	250	6	5	24%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Carlos Soler 2018 · A	18	39	37→45	46→45	39	187/248/267	80	274	3	8	31%	6%	47	-2.6	216/272/305	89	319	3	8	31%	6%	63	-1.3	238/290/344	106	352	2	8	31%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	50	-2.3	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	47	-2.5	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	20	-1.5
✕Nicoll Parra 2012 · A	18	39	36→30	44→55	45	183/264/252	70	275	4	8	32%	8%	50	-2.3	197/307/251	54	268	1	18	24%	12%	67	-1.1	186/321/224	38	254	0	27	22%	14%	65	-0.4
✕Luis Barrera 2015 · A	19	35→45	40→45	49→50	44	177/241/269	92	232	7	7	27%	7%	45	-2.7	205/249/284	79	288	4	8	29%	5%	50	-2.3	247/292/355	108	317	4	17	23%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2022 · A	19	43	36→45	46→55	53	200/285/268	68	260	3	9	23%	10%	61	-1.5	217/295/305	88	312	7	14	30%	10%	73	-0.6	206/286/298	92	317	9	17	35%	10%	65	-0.5
✕Gilbert Marrero 2016 · A	19	37	38→45	44→40	41	179/246/258	79	278	6	4	36%	8%	44	-2.8	183/237/253	70	329	4	6	42%	6%	38	-3.2	129/166/166	37	267	0	3	49%	4%	-12	-1.2
✕Jose Perez 2023 · A	19	41	36→40	44→45	50	191/273/255	63	252	3	8	24%	9%	53	-2.1	201/307/293	92	271	5	6	25%	12%	76	-0.4	184/305/272	88	246	5	5	24%	13%	69	-0.3
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	45	-2.7	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	49	-2.4	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	56	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps