Jesmaylin AriasOF
ACL Padres
Age 19
L/L
5'11" / 175 lbs
ROK
HR +13%BB +8%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.9 · 2033
wRC+†60
AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .267 / .310
PA166
HR3
K%31
BB%7
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
30→30
SPD
40→40
EYE
44↘40
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2033
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.9 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.9 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.7 | $18M | +$14M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.6 | $17M | +$12M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.3 | $14M | +$8M |
| Totals | $18M | $104M | +$85M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 175 | 160 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 65 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .169 | .231 | .237 | .469 | .069 | .271 | 37 | 6 | .207 | 17 | -16 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -1.3 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 196 | 177 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 86 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .119 | .192 | .192 | .384 | .073 | .207 | 44 | 7 | .174 | -9 | -24 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +6 | -2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | SD | 166 | 151 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .199 | .267 | .311 | .578 | .113 | .278 | 31 | 7 | .263 | 60 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB 11% | SD | 247 | 221 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 72 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .217 | .294 | .348 | .642 | .131 | .286 | 29 | 9 | .286 | 77 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB 28% | SD | 369 | 328 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 103 | 5 | 6 | 1 | .223 | .303 | .366 | .669 | .143 | .288 | 28 | 9 | .300 | 88 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB 48% | SD | 456 | 404 | 91 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 43 | 123 | 6 | 8 | 2 | .225 | .309 | .374 | .683 | .149 | .289 | 27 | 9 | .309 | 95 | -3 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +13 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB 65% | SD | 514 | 452 | 105 | 19 | 3 | 16 | 50 | 135 | 7 | 8 | 2 | .232 | .318 | .394 | .712 | .162 | .289 | 26 | 10 | .315 | 99 | -0 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB 82% | SD | 551 | 484 | 112 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 55 | 143 | 7 | 8 | 2 | .231 | .319 | .390 | .709 | .159 | .289 | 26 | 10 | .319 | 103 | +2 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 1.5 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | SD | 573 | 502 | 117 | 21 | 3 | 19 | 59 | 148 | 7 | 8 | 2 | .233 | .322 | .400 | .723 | .167 | .290 | 26 | 10 | .323 | 105 | +3 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 1.7 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | SD | 584 | 510 | 120 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 61 | 151 | 8 | 8 | 1 | .235 | .326 | .402 | .728 | .167 | .291 | 26 | 10 | .324 | 106 | +4 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +17 | 1.9 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | SD | 587 | 512 | 120 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 62 | 152 | 8 | 8 | 1 | .234 | .326 | .400 | .727 | .166 | .291 | 26 | 11 | .324 | 106 | +4 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +17 | 1.9 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | SD | 583 | 509 | 118 | 21 | 3 | 19 | 62 | 152 | 7 | 7 | 1 | .232 | .324 | .397 | .720 | .165 | .290 | 26 | 11 | .323 | 105 | +4 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +17 | 1.7 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | SD | 574 | 501 | 115 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 61 | 151 | 7 | 7 | 0 | .230 | .322 | .391 | .713 | .162 | .289 | 26 | 11 | .321 | 104 | +3 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +16 | 1.6 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | SD | 564 | 492 | 113 | 20 | 3 | 18 | 60 | 151 | 7 | 6 | 0 | .230 | .322 | .392 | .714 | .163 | .288 | 27 | 11 | .318 | 101 | +1 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +16 | 1.3 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | SD | 551 | 480 | 108 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 59 | 150 | 7 | 5 | 0 | .225 | .319 | .383 | .702 | .158 | .286 | 27 | 11 | .314 | 99 | -1 | +1 | -3 | -3 | +16 | 1.0 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | SD | 533 | 465 | 103 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 57 | 147 | 6 | 4 | 0 | .222 | .314 | .372 | .686 | .151 | .285 | 28 | 11 | .309 | 95 | -3 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +15 | 0.6 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB | SD | 503 | 439 | 95 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 53 | 143 | 6 | 4 | 0 | .216 | .309 | .360 | .669 | .144 | .283 | 28 | 11 | .304 | 91 | -5 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +14 | 0.3 |
| 2041 | 34 | MLB | SD | 456 | 400 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 133 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .212 | .305 | .350 | .655 | .137 | .281 | 29 | 11 | .297 | 86 | -7 | +1 | -5 | -3 | +13 | -0.1 |
| 2042 | 35 | MLB | SD | 401 | 351 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 121 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .205 | .299 | .336 | .635 | .131 | .279 | 30 | 10 | .289 | 80 | -9 | +1 | -6 | -2 | +11 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8583 | 7538 | 1673 | 303 | 43 | 249 | 861 | 2378 | 109 | 106 | 16 | .222 | .311 | .373 | .683 | .151 | .287 | 28 | 10 | .307 | 93 | -68 | +15 | -25 | -51 | +243 | 11.5 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 571 | 127 | 23 | 3 | 19 | 65 | 180 | 8 | 8 | 1 | .222 | .311 | .373 | .684 | .151 | .287 | 28 | 10 | .307 | 93 | -5 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +18 | 0.9 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 175 | 153 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .255 | .341 | .359 | .701 | .105 | .336 | 23 | 10 | .317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 196 | 169 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .178 | .280 | .290 | .570 | .112 | .252 | 32 | 11 | .262 | 58 | -9 | +0 | — | — | +6 | -0.4 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Jesmaylin Arias (OGILVIE) | 19 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 40 | .199/.267/.310 | .112 | .278 | 3 | 2 | 31% | 7% | 60 | -0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Jose Quero 2018 · A |
19 | 43 | 40 | 44→30 | 44 | .212/.272/.297 | .086 | .272 | 8 | 3 | 25% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .195/.254/.291 | .096 | .250 | 9 | 4 | 25% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .196/.247/.344 | .148 | .225 | 15 | 4 | 21% | 6% | 63 | -0.2 |
|
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A |
19 | 42→40 | 41→50 | 46→40 | 44 | .207/.262/.297 | .091 | .272 | 9 | 9 | 27% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .205/.256/.301 | .096 | .278 | 8 | 7 | 27% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .210/.263/.325 | .115 | .276 | 10 | 3 | 27% | 6% | 59 | -0.6 |
|
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A |
19 | 36 | 41→45 | 47→60 | 41 | .181/.239/.272 | .091 | .247 | 9 | 13 | 30% | 6% | 37 | -2.6 | .219/.271/.301 | .082 | .284 | 7 | 20 | 24% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .234/.281/.297 | .063 | .300 | 5 | 24 | 23% | 5% | 58 | -0.3 |
|
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A |
19 | 40 | 40→45 | 46→45 | 47 | .186/.285/.282 | .096 | .298 | 8 | 6 | 36% | 11% | 61 | -1.0 | .184/.262/.261 | .077 | .294 | 6 | 6 | 36% | 9% | 44 | -2.1 | .182/.268/.267 | .085 | .274 | 6 | 3 | 33% | 10% | 48 | -0.6 |
|
✕Nelson Quiroz 2021 · A |
19 | 44 | 37→40 | 47→40 | 45 | .209/.268/.279 | .070 | .271 | 5 | 6 | 24% | 7% | 50 | -1.7 | .224/.289/.327 | .103 | .275 | 7 | 5 | 20% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .253/.306/.321 | .068 | .288 | 2 | 0 | 12% | 6% | 73 | -0.0 |
|
✕Herman Armas 2006 · A |
19 | 38 | 37→45 | 41→50 | 44 | .183/.254/.250 | .067 | .263 | 4 | 7 | 30% | 8% | 38 | -2.6 | .208/.276/.312 | .104 | .287 | 9 | 10 | 29% | 7% | 63 | -0.8 | .212/.283/.329 | .117 | .282 | 11 | 12 | 27% | 7% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A |
19 | 42 | 42→45 | 47→50 | 43 | .205/.277/.309 | .104 | .271 | 9 | 8 | 27% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .224/.284/.326 | .102 | .290 | 5 | 11 | 24% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .226/.280/.337 | .111 | .291 | 6 | 11 | 23% | 4% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Freizer Pedron 2006 · A |
19 | 44 | 39→40 | 46→55 | 39 | .209/.263/.293 | .084 | .303 | 7 | 12 | 32% | 6% | 52 | -1.6 | .221/.282/.295 | .074 | .295 | 3 | 15 | 24% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .240/.304/.313 | .072 | .307 | 1 | 23 | 20% | 6% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Randel Alcantara 2015 · A |
18 | 41 | 43→45 | 42→45 | 42 | .202/.270/.308 | .106 | .277 | 11 | 4 | 30% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .201/.267/.310 | .109 | .267 | 8 | 6 | 27% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .186/.252/.305 | .119 | .241 | 8 | 6 | 25% | 5% | 48 | -0.6 |
|
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2023 · A |
19 | 41→38 | 37→40 | 49→55 | 43 | .188/.266/.261 | .074 | .308 | 4 | 9 | 37% | 9% | 46 | -2.0 | .191/.277/.276 | .085 | .308 | 5 | 14 | 36% | 10% | 55 | -1.4 | .187/.286/.266 | .080 | .296 | 4 | 18 | 34% | 11% | 55 | -0.8 |
|
●Nomar Mazara 2014 · A |
19 | 37→47 | 43→55 | 44→40 | 38 | .186/.243/.298 | .111 | .278 | 11 | 4 | 36% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .220/.278/.352 | .132 | .287 | 15 | 3 | 28% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .249/.312/.421 | .172 | .290 | 21 | 3 | 22% | 8% | 99 | +1.5 |
|
✕Wilmer Oberto 2012 · A |
19 | 39 | 38→50 | 41→45 | 45 | .191/.261/.270 | .078 | .266 | 6 | 8 | 29% | 8% | 46 | -2.0 | .206/.273/.316 | .110 | .267 | 10 | 5 | 26% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .201/.264/.322 | .121 | .257 | 12 | 3 | 26% | 6% | 60 | -0.4 |
|
✕Victor Arias 2022 · A |
18 | 44→46 | 38→45 | 46→50 | 44 | .204/.277/.282 | .078 | .314 | 6 | 9 | 34% | 9% | 56 | -1.3 | .209/.295/.306 | .097 | .329 | 7 | 14 | 35% | 9% | 70 | -0.3 | .219/.297/.335 | .116 | .314 | 10 | 18 | 31% | 8% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Henry Pena 2010 · A |
19 | 40 | 39→45 | 45 | 44 | .188/.265/.277 | .089 | .300 | 5 | 5 | 36% | 9% | 50 | -1.8 | .203/.275/.305 | .102 | .345 | 7 | 6 | 39% | 9% | 61 | -1.0 | .205/.278/.341 | .136 | .309 | 13 | 8 | 35% | 8% | 67 | -0.1 |
|
✕Gilbert Marrero 2016 · A |
19 | 38 | 39→45 | 44→40 | 42 | .184/.251/.266 | .082 | .281 | 6 | 4 | 35% | 8% | 41 | -2.3 | .181/.236/.250 | .069 | .325 | 4 | 5 | 42% | 6% | 29 | -3.2 | .129/.166/.166 | .037 | .267 | 0 | 3 | 49% | 4% | -26 | -1.2 |
|
✕Ronny Ugarte 2023 · A |
18 | 42 | 43→45 | 48→30 | 43 | .205/.276/.323 | .118 | .282 | 9 | 6 | 29% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .226/.287/.334 | .108 | .294 | 8 | 5 | 24% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .246/.302/.354 | .108 | .308 | 8 | 2 | 22% | 7% | 82 | +0.2 |
|
✕Luis Castillo 2023 · A |
19 | 44→26 | 39→45 | 48→45 | 42 | .210/.268/.295 | .086 | .290 | 7 | 7 | 29% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .188/.254/.291 | .103 | .281 | 11 | 4 | 35% | 8% | 49 | -1.8 | .152/.227/.257 | .105 | .225 | 13 | 2 | 37% | 8% | 28 | -1.4 |
|
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A |
20 | 40 | 38→40 | 48→50 | 41 | .194/.250/.274 | .080 | .270 | 5 | 6 | 29% | 6% | 42 | -2.3 | .184/.241/.255 | .071 | .277 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 6% | 33 | -2.9 | .147/.214/.205 | .058 | .225 | 0 | 6 | 32% | 6% | 7 | -1.5 |
|
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A |
20 | 37 | 40 | 44→55 | 39 | .185/.250/.273 | .088 | .268 | 9 | 9 | 33% | 6% | 43 | -2.2 | .200/.257/.289 | .089 | .277 | 6 | 11 | 28% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .197/.256/.288 | .091 | .265 | 4 | 15 | 26% | 6% | 45 | -0.8 |
|
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A |
18 | 42→36 | 37→40 | 43→50 | 40 | .199/.260/.273 | .074 | .298 | 4 | 10 | 33% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .188/.286/.269 | .081 | .350 | 5 | 9 | 43% | 10% | 58 | -1.2 | .161/.273/.241 | .079 | .336 | 5 | 7 | 47% | 10% | 45 | -0.9 |