Jesmaylin Arias — OGILVIE

Jesmaylin AriasOF ACL Padres

Age 19 L/L 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION160 act + 106 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .265 / .321

PA106

HR2

K%27

BB%7

BABIP255

ISO124

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	160	27	6	1	1	10	65	3	2	1	169	231	237	469	69	271	37	6	206	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	153	39	11	1	1	17	41	3	2	1	255	341	359	701	105	336	23	10	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	196	177	21	5	1	2	13	85	3	3	1	119	192	192	384	73	204	43	7	174	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	196	169	30	8	1	3	21	62	3	3	1	178	280	290	570	112	252	32	11	262	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	SD	—	160	140	25	6	1	5	11	43	6	4	2	179	268	343	610	164	211	27	7	265	61	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.4
YTD	19	ROK	SD	—	160	134	33	9	1	7	17	30	6	4	2	246	357	485	842	239	260	19	11	366	138	+7	+0	+0	-1	+5	1.1
ROS	19	ROK	SD	0%	106	96	19	4	1	2	7	29	2	2	1	197	265	321	586	124	244	27	7	251	50	-6	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
ROS	19	MLB	SD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		241	—	—	234	37	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	SD	—	160	141	25	6	1	5	11	43	6	4	2	177	268	340	608	163	208	27	7	265	61	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.4
TOT	19	ROK	SD	—	266	236	44	10	2	7	18	72	8	6	3	186	266	334	600	148	229	27	7	259	57	-13	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	SD	34%	290	263	52	11	2	6	20	76	5	4	1	198	267	323	591	125	250	26	7	262	59	-14	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.7
2028	21	MLB	SD	48%	401	363	73	15	2	9	28	103	7	5	2	201	271	328	599	127	254	26	7	270	65	-16	+0	+0	-2	+11	-0.7
2029	22	MLB	SD	54%	479	434	89	18	3	11	34	122	8	6	2	205	275	336	612	131	257	25	7	276	70	-17	+0	+0	-3	+14	-0.6
2030	23	MLB	SD	57%	529	477	101	21	3	13	38	133	9	7	2	212	282	350	633	138	259	25	7	280	72	-17	+1	+0	-3	+15	-0.4
2031	24	MLB	SD	57%	561	506	107	22	3	14	41	140	9	7	3	211	282	350	632	138	259	25	7	281	74	-17	+0	+0	-3	+16	-0.4
2032	25	MLB	SD	57%	579	522	110	23	3	14	42	145	10	8	3	211	282	347	629	136	260	25	7	282	74	-17	+0	+0	-3	+16	-0.4
2027	20	MLB	SD	34%	100	91	18	4	1	2	7	26	2	1	0	198	270	330	600	132	247	26	7	246	47	-6	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
2028	21	MLB	SD	48%	194	175	35	7	1	4	14	50	3	3	1	200	271	320	591	120	251	26	7	254	53	-10	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
2029	22	MLB	SD	54%	260	235	48	10	1	6	19	66	4	3	1	204	275	332	607	128	254	25	7	260	57	-13	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.7
2030	23	MLB	SD	57%	299	270	56	11	2	7	22	75	5	4	1	207	279	341	620	133	255	25	7	263	60	-14	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.7
2031	24	MLB	SD	57%	317	286	59	12	2	7	23	79	5	4	1	206	277	336	613	129	256	25	7	265	61	-14	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.7
2032	25	MLB	SD	57%	327	294	61	12	2	8	24	82	6	4	2	207	281	344	624	136	256	25	7	266	62	-14	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1497	1352	277	56	9	34	109	378	25	19	6	205	277	335	612	130	257	25	7	261	58	-71	+1	+0	-9	+42	-3.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	120	24	4	15	47	164	11	8	3	204	276	336	612	131	255	25	7	261	58	-31	+0	+0	-4	+18	-1.6
Career	—			—	3316	2998	599	125	19	72	233	898	56	44	16	200	270	326	596	126	257	27	7	266	62	-143	+2	+0	-20	+94	-6.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	117	24	4	14	46	176	11	9	3	199	270	325	595	126	256	27	7	266	62	-28	+1	+0	-4	+18	-1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	153	39	11	1	1	17	41	3	2	1	255	341	359	701	105	336	23	10	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+5	0.5
2025	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	196	169	30	8	1	3	21	62	3	3	1	178	280	290	570	112	252	32	11	262	58	-9	+0	—	—	+6	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,692	37	22	206	273	334	-10	+0	-2.4	-1.2
	/162	664	15	9	206	273	334	-4.0	+0.0	-1.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesmaylin Arias (OGILVIE)	19	20	30	40	40	186/266/334	148	229	7	6	27%	7%	57	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Herman Armas 2006 · A	19	37	36→45	41→50	44	179/250/243	64	257	4	7	30%	8%	35	-2.8	210/278/316	106	287	9	10	28%	7%	66	-0.6	212/283/329	117	282	11	12	27%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Leandro Pineda 2021 · A	19	37→39	36→45	44→45	43	180/244/238	58	245	3	6	27%	6%	30	-3.1	177/256/267	90	270	6	6	34%	8%	44	-2.1	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Dahiandy Johnson 2019 · A	19	38	39→40	43→45	42	187/245/267	80	253	6	4	28%	6%	38	-2.6	201/263/294	93	259	8	6	25%	7%	53	-1.5	189/256/282	93	230	10	5	22%	7%	45	-0.9
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	39	38→40	47→50	39	189/242/268	78	269	6	5	31%	6%	37	-2.7	186/245/258	72	280	3	6	32%	6%	36	-2.7	147/214/205	58	225	0	6	32%	6%	7	-1.5
✕Wilmer Oberto 2012 · A	19	39	38→50	41→45	45	188/259/266	79	261	6	8	29%	8%	44	-2.1	207/274/320	113	268	11	5	26%	6%	65	-0.7	203/268/325	122	260	12	3	26%	6%	62	-0.3
✕Gilbert Marrero 2016 · A	19	37	38→45	44→40	41	179/246/258	79	278	6	4	36%	8%	37	-2.7	183/237/253	70	329	4	6	42%	6%	30	-3.1	129/166/166	37	267	0	3	49%	4%	-26	-1.2
✕Adonis Figuereo 2019 · A	18	37	38→30	46→45	44	182/246/261	79	250	5	8	28%	7%	37	-2.6	193/263/271	78	270	6	6	28%	8%	47	-1.9	194/266/259	66	250	6	5	24%	8%	43	-0.8
✕Nicoll Parra 2012 · A	18	39	36→30	44→55	45	183/264/252	70	275	4	8	32%	8%	43	-2.2	197/307/251	54	268	1	18	24%	12%	63	-0.9	186/321/224	38	254	0	27	22%	14%	60	-0.3
✕Carlos Soler 2018 · A	18	39	37→45	46→45	39	187/248/267	80	274	3	8	31%	6%	40	-2.4	216/272/305	89	319	3	8	31%	6%	59	-1.1	238/290/344	106	352	2	8	31%	5%	73	-0.0
✕Jose Quero 2019 · A	20	38	39→40	44→30	44	188/251/267	79	246	7	3	26%	7%	40	-2.4	205/261/315	110	263	10	6	25%	7%	57	-1.2	196/247/344	148	225	15	4	21%	6%	63	-0.2
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	43	-2.2	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	40	-2.4	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	10	-1.5
✕Emilio King 2009 · A	19	38	37→45	44→40	41	184/245/258	74	245	5	6	26%	6%	36	-2.7	196/261/279	83	281	5	6	30%	5%	49	-1.8	206/259/300	94	298	6	4	31%	4%	49	-0.8
✕Oswal Leones 2021 · A	20	41	36→30	46→50	46	196/259/262	66	262	4	12	25%	7%	43	-2.2	196/259/262	66	296	3	8	32%	7%	43	-2.2	176/243/231	55	271	2	9	33%	7%	25	-1.1
✕Felix G. Santana 2014 · A	19	37	36→40	41→50	38	179/237/243	64	263	3	6	32%	5%	29	-3.2	220/276/302	82	293	5	8	25%	5%	60	-1.0	244/300/327	83	318	5	10	23%	4%	73	-0.0
✕Jose Cordoba 2022 · A	19	39	39→45	45→55	38	193/252/278	85	266	7	8	29%	5%	44	-2.1	196/255/289	93	278	8	10	31%	6%	48	-1.9	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A	18	42→32	37→40	43→50	40	199/260/273	73	295	4	10	32%	6%	46	-2.0	184/285/263	79	357	5	9	44%	10%	56	-1.3	152/269/228	75	334	5	7	49%	11%	40	-1.1
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	41	41→50	46→45	44	205/260/295	90	268	9	9	27%	7%	51	-1.7	207/258/303	96	281	7	7	27%	6%	53	-1.5	221/277/353	132	285	12	9	26%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2017 · A	19	41	40	45→50	51	195/277/291	96	232	6	6	18%	8%	59	-1.1	218/296/320	102	265	8	11	20%	8%	74	-0.1	196/277/286	90	260	8	15	26%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2010 · A	19	34	39→50	50→45	42	170/223/263	92	223	6	6	26%	6%	27	-3.3	214/258/312	98	290	9	7	28%	5%	54	-1.4	222/269/361	139	311	17	7	33%	5%	72	-0.1