Jesmaylin Arias

OF ACL Padres

Age 20 L/L 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL Padres Go…	175	.255/.341/.359	1	2	26	—	.165/.237/.234
2025	18	ROKSD	196	.178/.280/.290	3	3	6	—	.125/.202/.199
2026	19	A/ROKSD	266	.251/.354/.445	8	10	66	—	.194/.274/.338
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBSD	376	.198/.261/.295	5	6	57	-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBSD	73	.200/.265/.306	1	1	63	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed85

Whiff%70

Z-Con%67

K%53

ISO30

BB%21

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsVicmal De La Cruz (age 20) · Jose Cordoba (age 20) · Jaden Rudd (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 157 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .259 / .292

PA157

HR2

K%25

BB%6

ISO97

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	153	39	11	1	1	17	41	3	2	1	255	341	359	701	105	336	23	10	317	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	196	169	30	8	1	3	21	62	3	3	1	178	280	290	570	112	252	32	11	262	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	81	72	15	5	1	0	7	19	2	3	1	208	296	306	602	97	283	23	9	278	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	185	155	42	11	1	8	21	31	6	7	2	271	379	510	889	239	286	17	11	386	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	158	26	6	1	1	12	52	3	2	1	165	237	234	471	70	228	30	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	176	22	5	1	2	14	87	3	3	1	125	202	199	401	74	205	44	7	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	81	74	13	4	1	0	5	26	2	3	1	176	247	257	504	81	258	32	6	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	185	163	33	8	1	6	13	45	6	7	2	202	286	374	660	172	227	24	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	158	26	6	1	1	12	52	3	2	1	165	237	234	471	70	234	30	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	153	39	11	1	1	17	41	3	2	1	255	341	359	701	105	336	23	10	317	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	176	22	5	1	2	14	87	3	3	1	125	202	199	401	74	222	44	7	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	—	196	169	30	8	1	3	21	62	3	3	1	178	280	290	570	112	252	32	11	262	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	266	237	46	12	2	6	18	70	8	10	3	194	274	338	611	143	244	26	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	266	227	57	16	2	8	28	50	8	10	3	251	354	445	799	194	285	19	11	353	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	158	26	6	1	1	12	52	3	2	1	165	237	234	471	70	228	30	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	177	22	5	1	2	14	87	3	3	1	124	202	198	400	73	205	44	7	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	266	238	46	12	2	6	18	70	8	10	3	193	274	336	610	143	236	26	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	158	26	6	1	1	12	52	3	2	1	165	237	234	471	70	228	30	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	177	22	5	1	2	14	87	3	3	1	124	202	198	400	73	205	44	7	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	266	238	46	12	2	6	18	70	8	10	3	193	274	336	610	143	236	26	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SD	0%	376	344	68	14	2	5	24	95	5	6	2	198	261	295	556	97	256	25	6	252	57	-19	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	34%	213	194	39	8	1	3	14	53	3	3	1	204	268	311	579	107	259	25	7	262	63	-9	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	34%	73	67	13	3	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	200	265	306	571	106	254	25	7	259	63	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	73	67	13	3	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	194	260	284	544	90	250	25	7	259	45	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	116	27	0	9	45	160	9	9	0	194	262	285	546	90	250	25	7	259	45	-28	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	1007	909	162	37	6	14	68	302	19	20	7	178	250	278	528	100	245	30	7	235	45	-17	+0	+0	-2	+8	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	105	24	4	9	44	195	12	13	5	179	250	279	530	101	247	30	7	235	45	-30	+0	+0	-4	+14	-2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Padres · 185 PAwOBA .380 → .286 (−94)K% 16.8% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.76%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	6.75%
HBP% /PA	3.24%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	2.35%
Singles /BIP	17.74%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.019	×1.008	14.93%
Doubles /BIP	8.87%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.019	×1.008	6.56%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.019	×1.008	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	6.45%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	5.07%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .380 → .286; ISO .239 → .183; BABIP .286 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 81 PAwOBA .271 → .218 (−53)K% 23.5% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.46%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	31.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.64%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	6.23%
HBP% /PA	2.47%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	2.01%
Singles /BIP	16.98%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.981	×1.045	16.01%
Doubles /BIP	9.43%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.981	×1.045	8.03%
Triples /BIP	1.89%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.981	×1.045	1.76%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .271 → .218; ISO .097 → .078; BABIP .283 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Padres · 196 PAwOBA .259 → .177 (−82)K% 31.6% → 44.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.63%	÷1.023	×1.440	—	—	44.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷0.990	×0.620	—	×1.022	6.86%
HBP% /PA	1.53%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	1.13%
Singles /BIP	16.82%	÷1.010	×0.820	×1.040	×1.022	14.52%
Doubles /BIP	7.48%	÷1.045	×0.720	×1.040	×1.022	5.48%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.018	×0.720	×1.040	×1.022	0.70%
Home runs /BIP	2.80%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×1.022	2.20%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 104, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .259 → .177; ISO .112 → .074; BABIP .252 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 175 PAwOBA .312 → .206 (−107)K% 23.4% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.43%	÷0.952	×1.220	—	—	30.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.71%	÷1.022	×0.700	—	×1.022	6.80%
HBP% /PA	1.71%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.23%
Singles /BIP	23.21%	÷1.015	×0.680	×1.050	×1.022	16.70%
Doubles /BIP	9.82%	÷1.072	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	5.90%
Triples /BIP	0.89%	÷1.096	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	0.89%	÷0.909	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.47%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 119, K 90, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .312 → .206; ISO .105 → .059; BABIP .336 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#5Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
#6Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	230	3	3	201	261	301	-1	+0	-0.5	-0.3
/162	664	9	10	-4.0	+0.0	-1.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesmaylin Arias (OGILVIE)	20	20	30	40	40	197/259/292	96	256	2	2	25%	6%	57	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	38	38→40	47→50	40	185/239/260	76	260	6	5	30%	6%	41	-3.0	185/243/256	71	278	3	6	32%	6%	42	-2.9	144/211/202	57	222	0	6	32%	6%	17	-1.5
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Jaden Rudd 2023 · A	20	39→36	39→30	49→50	49	187/279/277	90	259	6	12	28%	9%	61	-1.5	182/288/248	66	288	3	14	34%	10%	59	-1.6	160/281/212	51	264	2	16	35%	11%	47	-1.3
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	40	36→40	45→50	46	190/261/259	69	270	4	9	29%	8%	50	-2.3	191/256/256	65	306	3	10	35%	7%	47	-2.6	156/231/187	31	268	0	14	38%	8%	19	-1.5
✕Wilmer Oberto 2013 · A	20	37	39→45	43→45	50	180/265/262	82	221	6	7	21%	8%	53	-2.1	201/259/306	105	271	9	4	28%	6%	59	-1.6	195/244/312	117	267	11	0	30%	5%	54	-0.6
✕Yeicok Calderon 2012 · A	20	38	42→40	49→45	42	190/255/295	105	271	9	7	32%	7%	55	-1.9	188/238/305	117	303	12	5	40%	6%	51	-2.2	179/226/296	117	283	14	3	41%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Miguel Arrendell 2008 · A	20	37	35→30	39→50	51	172/251/226	54	210	3	5	19%	8%	39	-3.1	193/291/255	62	249	3	12	21%	11%	61	-1.5	201/272/282	81	263	7	9	25%	8%	56	-0.7
✕Herman Armas 2007 · A	20	37	38→40	47→50	44	181/254/261	80	248	5	11	28%	7%	48	-2.5	197/270/285	88	250	7	9	23%	7%	59	-1.6	179/264/261	82	212	9	9	19%	8%	51	-1.2
✕Josh Sale 2012 · A	21	37	40→45	46→40	43	185/236/280	95	238	7	6	25%	6%	45	-2.7	206/275/317	111	300	10	6	32%	8%	68	-1.0	193/270/308	115	299	12	4	36%	9%	64	-0.7
✕Oswal Leones 2021 · A	20	40	35→30	46→50	47	189/255/250	61	251	3	12	25%	8%	45	-2.7	198/260/264	66	294	3	8	31%	7%	50	-2.3	180/248/237	57	271	2	9	32%	8%	36	-1.1
✕Raudelis Martinez 2022 · A	20	35	37→30	44→45	46	169/234/235	66	215	5	7	23%	7%	34	-3.5	180/260/257	77	220	6	8	20%	8%	49	-2.4	171/242/235	64	204	6	6	19%	8%	37	-1.6
✕Omar Lebron 2019 · A	20	37	40→30	48→55	47	183/262/274	91	231	8	15	24%	8%	55	-2.0	192/264/282	90	269	6	9	29%	7%	56	-1.9	149/239/229	80	212	3	9	28%	8%	34	-0.9
✕Sandy Acevedo 2013 · A	20	37	38→40	49→50	44	181/259/263	83	253	5	11	29%	8%	51	-2.3	186/256/284	98	256	7	9	28%	7%	54	-2.0	123/201/242	119	154	9	9	26%	8%	23	-1.1
✕Cristhian Vasquez 2017 · A	20	32	38→30	49→50	42	160/225/238	78	222	6	8	30%	7%	32	-3.7	193/249/266	73	256	4	9	25%	6%	46	-2.6	188/241/245	57	243	2	11	22%	5%	35	-1.5
✕Freizer Pedron 2007 · A	20	40	36→30	48→55	45	191/250/257	66	243	3	12	22%	6%	45	-2.7	211/279/276	65	274	2	16	22%	7%	60	-1.6	221/294/282	61	275	1	29	18%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Danyer Sanabria 2021 · A	19	36	40→45	44→45	37	181/215/270	88	234	8	7	26%	4%	34	-3.5	190/235/276	86	309	6	6	38%	5%	43	-2.8	202/246/298	97	321	5	3	37%	5%	48	-0.8
✕Carlos Soto 2019 · A	20	40	40→45	43→30	46	198/266/283	86	263	8	3	27%	8%	57	-1.8	200/267/297	97	281	9	4	30%	7%	61	-1.5	168/258/285	117	236	11	0	32%	10%	54	-0.8
✕Anderson De Los Santos 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	43→50	40	192/247/282	89	269	7	8	30%	6%	49	-2.4	183/261/280	97	274	9	12	34%	9%	55	-1.9	173/266/275	101	253	10	13	33%	10%	53	-1.5
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	36	39→40	42→50	52	178/287/262	84	243	7	10	28%	11%	62	-1.4	171/257/257	86	259	7	6	34%	9%	49	-2.4	134/224/213	79	200	8	2	35%	9%	27	-1.2
✕Adonis Pacheco 2011 · A	20	38	34→45	42→55	48	178/245/232	54	233	2	9	23%	8%	37	-3.3	186/247/262	76	235	3	14	20%	7%	45	-2.7	176/237/262	86	216	3	17	19%	7%	38	-1.1

Jesmaylin Arias

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps