Yolvin Mesa — OGILVIE

Yolvin Mesa P DSL Tampa Bay

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 17 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%20.0%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	16	1	27	126	25	11	0	6%	1.7	13.5%	10.9%	2.6%	0.0%	5.00	3.34	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	16	1	27	126	25	11	0	6%	1.7	13.5%	10.9%	2.6%	0.0%	5.00	3.34	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	16	1	27	126	25	11	0	6%	1.7	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	0.0%	5.00	2.47	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	19	0	28	124	36	16	1	0%	1.5	19.7%	16.1%	3.6%	1.1%	3.86	4.08	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	19	0	28	124	36	16	1	0%	1.5	19.7%	16.1%	3.6%	1.1%	3.86	4.08	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	19	0	28	124	36	16	1	0%	1.5	29.0%	12.9%	16.1%	0.8%	3.86	2.71	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	17	0	30	134	29	14	2	0%	1.8	14.7%	13.1%	1.7%	2.1%	4.80	4.66	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	17	0	30	134	29	14	2	0%	1.8	14.7%	13.1%	1.7%	2.1%	4.80	4.66	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	17	0	30	134	29	14	2	0%	1.8	21.6%	10.4%	11.2%	1.5%	4.80	3.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TB	16	0	17	72	14	9	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.9%	7.1%	2.9%	5.03	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	27	0	28	120	26	14	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.80	4.70	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	13	0	14	59	13	7	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.80	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	59	13	7	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.80	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	100	29	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.80	4.32	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		52	1	85	384	61	51	4	2%	1.6	15.9%	13.3%	2.6%	1.1%	4.55	4.04	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	2	200	904	144	121	10	2%	1.6	15.9%	13.3%	2.6%	1.1%	4.55	4.04	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yolvin Mesa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	20.0%	12.9%	2.9%	—	4.70	21.3%	9.9%	28	-0.33	—	—	—
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	90
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	89
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	89
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	88
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	87
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	87
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	87
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	87
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	525	87
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	87
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	87
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	86
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	86
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	86
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	86
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	86
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	476	86