Eligio Arias — OGILVIE

Eligio Arias P FCL Phillies

Age 24 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 15 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%22.1%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	5	33	151	45	17	3	38%	2.5	20.3%	14.1%	6.2%	3.0%	7.44	4.84	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	5	33	151	45	17	3	38%	2.5	20.3%	14.1%	6.2%	3.0%	7.44	4.84	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	13	5	33	151	45	17	3	38%	2.5	29.8%	11.3%	18.5%	2.0%	7.44	3.10	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	15	0	24	106	26	14	2	0%	1.6	16.7%	16.5%	0.2%	2.9%	4.94	5.36	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	15	0	24	106	26	14	2	0%	1.6	16.7%	16.5%	0.2%	2.9%	4.94	5.36	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	15	0	24	106	26	14	2	0%	1.6	24.5%	13.2%	11.3%	1.9%	4.94	3.78	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	8	35	10	6	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	17.1%	11.4%	0.0%	4.32	2.86	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	8	35	10	6	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	17.1%	11.4%	0.0%	4.32	2.86	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	8	35	10	6	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	17.1%	11.4%	0.0%	4.32	2.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PHI	14	0	15	63	14	8	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.2%	8.8%	3.0%	4.94	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	21	0	22	91	21	11	3	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.72	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.78	4.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	108	22	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.78	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		35	5	65	292	58	45	8	14%	1.8	20.0%	15.3%	4.6%	2.6%	6.12	4.79	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	15	200	903	180	138	24	14%	1.8	20.0%	15.3%	4.6%	2.6%	6.12	4.79	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eligio Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	22.1%	13.2%	3.0%	—	4.72	22.6%	10.7%	22	-0.22	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	86
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	84
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	84
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	84
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	83
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	83
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	83
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	83
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	83
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	83