Justin Loer

P Spokane Indians

Age 24 LHP 6'5" / 214 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ACOL	40	77	5.49	3.63	18.0%	13.4%	—	K 13.3% · BB 15.8% · FIP 4.42
2026	23	A+COL	35	65	6.09	5.33	22.1%	16.4%	—	K 17.1% · BB 18.9% · FIP 6.36
2027PROJ	24	MLBCOL	64	67	6.51	6.51	14.0%	20.0%	-1.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCOL	29	30	6.14	6.03	15.9%	17.6%	-0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCOL	45	47	5.92	5.86	16.9%	16.9%	-0.7

Next 3 projected WAR -2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control30Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsChris Nunn (age 24) · Trevor Seidenberger (age 24) · Matt Mikulski (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141149vR 157

ERA6.51

FIP6.51

K%14.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-6.0%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	9	0	9	44	9	7	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	15.9%	4.5%	2.3%	7.71	4.64	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	9	0	9	44	9	7	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	15.9%	4.5%	2.3%	7.71	4.64	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	9	0	9	44	9	7	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	15.9%	4.5%	2.3%	7.71	4.81	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	40	0	77	366	66	49	2	0%	1.9	13.3%	15.8%	-2.5%	0.8%	5.49	4.42	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	40	0	77	366	66	49	2	0%	1.9	13.3%	15.8%	-2.5%	0.8%	5.49	4.42	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	40	0	77	366	66	49	2	0%	1.9	18.0%	13.4%	4.6%	0.5%	5.49	3.63	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	35	0	65	298	66	49	10	0%	1.9	17.1%	18.9%	-1.9%	4.2%	6.09	6.36	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	35	0	65	298	66	49	10	0%	1.9	17.1%	18.9%	-1.9%	4.2%	6.09	6.36	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	35	0	65	298	66	49	10	0%	1.9	22.1%	16.4%	5.7%	3.4%	6.09	5.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	COL	64	0	67	283	40	57	9	0%	1.0	14.0%	20.0%	-6.0%	3.1%	6.51	6.51	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	67	0	70	296	47	52	9	0%	1.0	15.9%	17.6%	-1.7%	3.0%	6.14	6.03	-1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	67	0	70	296	50	50	9	0%	1.0	16.9%	16.9%	0.0%	3.0%	5.92	5.86	-1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	66	0	69	292	50	48	9	0%	1.0	17.2%	16.6%	0.6%	3.1%	5.83	5.82	-1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	64	0	67	283	49	47	9	0%	1.0	17.3%	16.6%	0.7%	3.2%	5.84	5.87	-1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	61	0	64	270	46	45	9	0%	1.0	17.0%	16.8%	0.2%	3.3%	5.93	6.00	-1.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	29	0	30	127	20	22	4	0%	1.0	15.9%	17.6%	-1.7%	3.0%	6.14	6.03	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	45	0	47	198	34	34	6	0%	1.0	16.9%	16.9%	0.0%	3.0%	5.92	5.86	-0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	50	0	53	224	39	37	7	0%	1.1	17.2%	16.6%	0.6%	3.1%	5.83	5.82	-0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	53	0	56	236	41	39	8	0%	1.1	17.3%	16.6%	0.7%	3.2%	5.84	5.87	-0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	53	0	56	236	40	40	8	0%	1.1	17.0%	16.8%	0.2%	3.3%	5.93	6.00	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		231	0	243	1024	174	172	32	0%	1.1	17.0%	16.8%	0.1%	3.1%	5.91	5.53	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	142	26	0%	1.1	17.0%	16.8%	0.1%	3.1%	5.91	5.53	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		84	0	151	708	109	121	16	0%	1.8	15.3%	17.1%	-1.8%	2.3%	5.89	5.25	-5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	0	200	936	144	160	22	0%	1.8	15.3%	17.1%	-1.8%	2.3%	5.89	5.25	-3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Loer (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.51	14.0%	20.0%	3.1%	—	5.90	16.7%	-0.4%	210	-0.61	—	—	—
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	86
Trevor Seidenberger L 2016 · 6.29 FIP	24	SU	6.29	13.1%	14.9%	4.4%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	101	82
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	80
Jeff Wallace L 2000 · 5.61 FIP	24	SU	5.61	14.6%	17.8%	2.7%	.308	4.73	16.9%	0.5%	50	-0.88	2.51	137	79
Jordan Minch L 2017 · 6.88 FIP	24	SU	6.88	13.7%	17.6%	4.9%	.262	5.04	15.9%	4.4%	121	-1.84	3.64	255	79
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	78
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	78
Max Schuh L 2016 · 6.12 FIP	24	SU	6.12	16.1%	17.9%	3.9%	.389	4.70	19.2%	5.6%	48	-1.42	3.10	118	76
Garvin Alston L 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	14.4%	15.5%	2.7%	.328	4.17	16.9%	5.5%	160	-1.18	3.98	232	76
Jordan Norberto L 2010 · 6.32 FIP	23	SU	6.32	16.0%	22.3%	3.2%	.236	3.89	21.7%	12.3%	52	-2.43	3.89	117	75
Levi Prater L 2022 · 6.76 FIP	23	SU	6.76	15.8%	23.5%	3.6%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	6.76	110	74
Steve Hajjar L 2024 · 7.00 FIP	23	SU	7.00	15.0%	25.6%	3.5%	.150	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	141	74
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	74
Luis De Paula L 2016 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	16.4%	16.2%	2.9%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	125	73
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	73
Jose Garcia L 2021 · 6.10 FIP	23	SU	6.10	10.2%	14.6%	3.7%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	149	73
Cam Booser L 2016 · 6.61 FIP	24	SU	6.61	19.8%	28.0%	3.0%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	314	72
Caleb Frare L 2017 · 5.45 FIP	24	SU	5.45	22.6%	21.3%	2.9%	.307	3.14	28.0%	15.6%	80	-2.31	2.27	237	72
Ever Moya L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	23	SU	6.20	10.9%	18.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	170	72
Dan Lietz L 2018 · 5.82 FIP	24	SU	5.82	11.1%	13.2%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	188	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	68	16.4%	17.4%	1.21	6.03
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*