Justin Loer
P
Spokane Indians
Age 23
LHP
6'5" / 214 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138147vR 156
ERA6.14
FIP6.14
K%12.0%
BB%17.5%
K-BB%-5.5%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 9 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 15.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 7.71 | 4.64 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 9 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 15.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 7.71 | 4.81 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 40 | 0 | 77 | 366 | 66 | 49 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 13.3% | 15.8% | -2.5% | 1.0% | 5.49 | 4.50 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 40 | 0 | 77 | 366 | 66 | 49 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 18.0% | 13.4% | 4.6% | 0.5% | 5.49 | 3.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 22 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 46 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 2.0 | 18.8% | 16.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 5.43 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 31 | 46 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.0% | 17.5% | -5.5% | 2.6% | 6.14 | 6.14 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 17.5% | -5.5% | 2.6% | 6.14 | 6.14 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 107 | 448 | 77 | 73 | 12 | — | — | 17.2% | 16.2% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.41 | 5.84 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.0% | 17.5% | -5.5% | 2.6% | 6.14 | 5.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 39 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.6% | 15.7% | -1.1% | 2.7% | 5.80 | 5.69 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 43 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 14.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 5.42 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 17 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.6% | 15.7% | -1.1% | 2.7% | 5.80 | 5.69 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 14.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 5.53 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 0 | 70 | 295 | 46 | 44 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 15.0% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 5.64 | 5.15 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 132 | 126 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 15.0% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 5.64 | 5.15 | +0.6 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 131 | 598 | 93 | 96 | 11 | 0% | 1.8 | 15.6% | 16.0% | -0.4% | 1.8% | 5.28 | 4.80 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 0 | 200 | 911 | 142 | 146 | 16 | 0% | 1.8 | 15.6% | 16.0% | -0.4% | 1.8% | 5.28 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Loer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.14 | 12.0% | 17.5% | 2.6% | — | 5.55 | 15.3% | 0.2% | 127 | -0.59 | — | — | — |
| Gerardo Concepción L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.35 | 14.0% | 18.5% | 2.0% | .352 | 4.75 | 16.9% | 6.5% | 60 | -0.60 | 4.75 | 104 | 84 |
| Chris Nunn L 2027 · 5.94 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.94 | 13.9% | 16.8% | 3.4% | .350 | 3.97 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 37 | -1.97 | 3.26 | 180 | 84 |
| Dan Lietz L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.02 | 10.2% | 16.8% | 1.2% | .264 | 5.92 | 11.1% | -2.1% | 38 | +0.90 | 4.47 | 188 | 84 |
| Max Herrmann L 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 15.0% | 17.9% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.45 | 12.2% | 0.8% | 152 | -0.64 | 3.92 | 168 | 81 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.61 | 12.6% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .266 | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 101 | -1.53 | 3.54 | 146 | 79 |
| José Manuel Fernández L 2026 · 6.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.36 | 16.4% | 19.7% | 3.9% | .211 | 4.71 | 17.7% | 6.4% | 168 | -1.65 | 3.35 | 263 | 78 |
| Josh D. Smith L 2028 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 11.5% | 17.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 3.89 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 222 | -1.50 | 3.09 | 335 | 78 |
| Bryan King L 2027 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.31 | 17.4% | 17.8% | 2.6% | .317 | 2.89 | 24.7% | 14.5% | 77 | -2.42 | 2.49 | 226 | 78 |
| Juan Pichardo L 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.95 | 17.7% | 17.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.13 | 103 | 78 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.70 | 15.9% | 16.5% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.09 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 142 | -1.61 | 4.01 | 258 | 78 |
| Joe Jacques L 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.61 | 12.1% | 22.2% | 1.3% | .265 | 3.94 | 18.7% | 6.9% | 113 | -1.67 | 3.01 | 332 | 77 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2029 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.34 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.09 | 3.46 | 154 | 77 |
| Nicolo Pinazzi L 2026 · 6.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.69 | 19.3% | 26.9% | 3.3% | .307 | 2.70 | 28.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -3.99 | 2.70 | 122 | 76 |
| Ever Moya L 2026 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.30 | 10.9% | 18.4% | 3.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 170 | 76 |
| Steve Hajjar L 2026 · 6.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.73 | 15.0% | 25.6% | 3.0% | .150 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 141 | 75 |
| Kikito Severino L 2024 · 5.70 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.70 | 11.9% | 19.5% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 135 | 75 |
| Justin Kelly L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.96 | 13.4% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .421 | 3.70 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 123 | -1.26 | 3.48 | 160 | 75 |
| Gregory Reinoso L 2024 · 6.70 FIP | 21 | SU | 6.70 | 11.3% | 19.1% | 3.9% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 105 | 74 |
| Levi Prater L 2026 · 6.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.57 | 15.8% | 23.5% | 3.3% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 6.57 | 110 | 74 |
| Adrian Almeida L 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.53 | 19.1% | 24.5% | 1.7% | .223 | 5.03 | 19.9% | -4.6% | 59 | -0.50 | 4.24 | 188 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 14.2% | 15.9% | 1.03 | 5.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |