Justin Loer — OGILVIE

Justin Loer P Spokane Indians

Age 23 LHP 6'5" / 214 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135143vR 151

ERA6.23

FIP6.23

K%12.0%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%-6.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	9	0	9	44	9	7	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	15.9%	4.5%	2.3%	7.71	4.64	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	9	0	9	44	9	7	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	15.9%	4.5%	2.3%	7.71	4.64	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	9	0	9	44	9	7	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	15.9%	4.5%	2.3%	7.71	4.81	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	40	0	77	366	66	49	2	0%	1.9	13.3%	15.8%	-2.5%	0.8%	5.49	4.42	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	40	0	77	366	66	49	2	0%	1.9	13.3%	15.8%	-2.5%	0.8%	5.49	4.42	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	40	0	77	366	66	49	2	0%	1.9	18.0%	13.4%	4.6%	0.5%	5.49	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	35	0	65	298	66	49	10	0%	1.9	17.1%	18.9%	-1.9%	4.2%	6.09	6.36	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	35	0	65	298	66	49	10	0%	1.9	17.1%	18.9%	-1.9%	4.2%	6.09	6.36	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	COL	35	0	65	298	66	49	10	0%	1.9	22.1%	16.4%	5.7%	3.4%	6.09	5.15	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	COL	5	0	6	24	3	4	1	0%	1.1	12.0%	18.3%	-6.3%	2.6%	6.23	6.23	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	71	322	69	53	11	—	—	21.4%	16.6%	4.8%	3.3%	6.10	6.35	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	68	0	71	300	44	49	8	0%	1.0	14.6%	16.3%	-1.7%	2.6%	5.87	5.76	-0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	68	0	72	304	49	45	8	0%	1.1	16.1%	15.0%	1.1%	2.6%	5.58	5.47	-0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	68	0	72	304	51	44	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	14.6%	2.3%	2.7%	5.43	5.37	-0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	67	0	71	299	51	44	8	0%	1.1	17.1%	14.6%	2.5%	2.7%	5.39	5.38	-0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	65	0	69	290	49	43	8	0%	1.1	17.0%	14.7%	2.2%	2.8%	5.43	5.46	-0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	62	0	66	277	46	41	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	15.0%	1.7%	3.0%	5.53	5.59	-0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	59	0	62	261	43	40	8	0%	1.0	16.4%	15.3%	1.1%	3.2%	5.67	5.77	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	30	0	31	131	19	21	3	0%	1.0	14.6%	16.3%	-1.7%	2.6%	5.87	5.76	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	46	0	48	203	33	30	5	0%	1.0	16.1%	15.0%	1.1%	2.6%	5.58	5.47	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	54	0	57	241	41	35	6	0%	1.1	16.9%	14.6%	2.3%	2.7%	5.43	5.37	-0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	57	0	60	253	43	37	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	14.6%	2.5%	2.7%	5.39	5.38	-0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	58	0	61	258	44	38	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	14.7%	2.2%	2.8%	5.43	5.46	-0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	57	0	60	253	42	38	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	15.0%	1.7%	3.0%	5.53	5.59	-0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	54	0	57	241	39	37	8	0%	1.1	16.4%	15.3%	1.1%	3.2%	5.67	5.77	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		356	0	373	1576	261	236	44	0%	1.0	16.5%	15.0%	1.6%	2.8%	5.53	5.15	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	126	24	0%	1.1	16.5%	15.0%	1.6%	2.8%	5.53	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		84	0	151	708	109	121	16	0%	1.8	15.3%	17.1%	-1.8%	2.3%	5.89	5.25	-5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	0	200	936	144	160	22	0%	1.8	15.3%	17.1%	-1.8%	2.3%	5.89	5.25	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Loer (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.23	12.0%	18.3%	2.6%	—	5.53	15.9%	0.6%	215	-0.70	—	—	—
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	85
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	85
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	81
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	80
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	78
Josh D. Smith L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	11.5%	17.1%	1.8%	.258	3.94	19.9%	8.2%	222	-1.34	3.17	335	78
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	77
Joe Jacques L 2018 · 5.61 FIP	23	SU	5.61	12.1%	22.2%	1.3%	.265	4.00	18.7%	6.9%	113	-1.61	2.89	356	77
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	77
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	77
Jose Garcia L 2021 · 6.10 FIP	23	SU	6.10	10.2%	14.6%	3.7%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	149	76
Ever Moya L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	23	SU	6.20	10.9%	18.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	170	76
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	76
Kikito Severino L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SW	5.78	11.9%	19.5%	2.2%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	135	75
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	74
Gregory Reinoso L 2017 · 6.70 FIP	21	SU	6.70	11.3%	19.1%	3.9%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.18	105	74
Levi Prater L 2022 · 6.76 FIP	23	SU	6.76	15.8%	23.5%	3.6%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	6.76	110	74
Adrian Almeida L 2018 · 5.49 FIP	23	SU	5.49	19.1%	24.5%	1.6%	.223	5.10	19.9%	-4.6%	59	-0.39	4.27	188	74
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	73
Ian McKinney L 2018 · 6.01 FIP	23	SU	6.01	13.2%	17.2%	3.4%	.274	4.45	21.1%	9.9%	238	-1.56	2.72	525	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	68	15.9%	15.4%	1.07	5.63
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59