Justin Loer — OGILVIE

Justin Loer P Spokane Indians

+0.0 WAR

Age 23 LHP 6'5" / 214 lbs A+ peak 0.7 · 2028

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.1%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%8.6%

IP77

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2028

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†4050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	9	0	9	44	9	7	1	—	—	—	7.71	—	—
2025	22	A	Fresno Grizzlies	40	0	77	366	66	49	2	13.3%	15.8%	0.8%	5.49	4.41	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Spokane Indians	3	0	6	27	7	6	0	—	—	—	9.53	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	COL	14	14	77	325	58	47	9	17.7%	14.5%	2.6%	5.25	5.25	-0.1
2026 Total	23	MLB	COL	—	—	83	352	65	53	9	18.3%	15.1%	2.4%	5.54	4.89	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	COL	14	14	79	333	63	45	9	18.8%	13.4%	2.6%	5.08	5.03	+0.1
2028	25	MLB	COL	15	15	80	337	66	43	9	19.5%	12.8%	2.6%	4.95	4.90	+0.2
2029	26	MLB	COL	15	15	80	337	67	43	9	19.9%	12.6%	2.7%	4.88	4.85	+0.2
2030	27	MLB	COL	14	14	79	335	67	42	9	20.0%	12.5%	2.7%	4.86	4.85	+0.2
2031	28	MLB	COL	14	14	78	330	66	42	9	20.0%	12.6%	2.7%	4.87	4.87	+0.2
2032	29	MLB	COL	14	14	76	322	64	41	9	19.9%	12.7%	2.8%	4.90	4.92	+0.1
2033	30	MLB	COL	13	13	74	312	61	40	9	19.7%	12.8%	2.8%	4.95	4.98	+0.1
2034	31	MLB	COL	13	13	71	301	59	39	9	19.4%	12.9%	2.9%	5.01	5.06	-0.0
2035	32	MLB	COL	12	12	68	289	55	38	9	19.1%	13.1%	3.0%	5.09	5.14	-0.1
2036	33	MLB	COL	12	12	65	276	52	37	8	18.8%	13.2%	3.1%	5.18	5.24	-0.2
2037	34	MLB	COL	11	11	62	262	48	35	8	18.5%	13.4%	3.2%	5.28	5.35	-0.3
2038	35	MLB	COL	58	—	58	247	45	34	8	18.1%	13.7%	3.3%	5.40	5.47	-0.3
2039	36	MLB	COL	55	—	55	231	41	32	8	17.7%	13.9%	3.4%	5.52	5.61	-0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			52	0	92	437	65	71	4	14.8%	16.2%	0.9%	5.97	4.39	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—			113	0	200	950	141	154	9	14.8%	16.2%	0.9%	5.97	4.39	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Loer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	17.7%	14.5%	2.6%	—	4.93	19.4%	6.5%	239	-0.32	—	—	—
Joe Kemlage L 2026 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	19.4%	13.5%	2.2%	.278	5.32	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.91	4.41	128	91
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2025 · 4.47 FIP	22	SW	4.47	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.91	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.56	2.97	146	91
Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.35 FIP	23	SW	4.35	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.49	18.6%	0.1%	50	+2.14	4.35	129	91
Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.22 FIP	23	SW	4.22	16.7%	13.3%	1.5%	.324	4.68	15.5%	4.0%	94	+0.46	4.22	156	89
Ty Madrigal L 2027 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.77	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.23	4.54	107	89
Braeden Fausnaught L 2027 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.62	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.15	4.46	242	89
Felix Carvallo L 2025 · 4.52 FIP	22	SW	4.52	17.7%	13.0%	2.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	132	88
Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.45 FIP	23	SW	4.45	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	4.96	17.1%	5.7%	161	+0.51	4.32	236	88
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.60	24.1%	7.7%	60	-1.01	3.60	136	87
Chris Reed L 2028 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.70	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.22	4.70	137	87
Luis De Paula L 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SW	4.33	14.8%	14.2%	1.2%	.285	5.37	16.4%	0.2%	47	+1.04	4.33	125	87
Daniel Brown L 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SW	4.10	16.3%	13.1%	1.3%	.281	4.38	17.7%	3.1%	48	+0.28	3.79	184	86
Jared Beck L 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	5.70	21.8%	-3.3%	55	+1.55	4.15	130	86
Jaden Woods L 2026 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.4%	12.1%	2.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	1.50	136	86
Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.36	20.4%	7.2%	170	-0.15	3.87	236	85
Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.96 FIP	23	SW	4.96	19.7%	12.7%	3.5%	.300	4.72	22.7%	9.5%	152	-0.24	3.96	265	85
Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	161	85
Estevan Gonzalez L 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SW	4.80	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.87	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.07	4.58	195	84
Trevor Seidenberger L 2026 · 4.67 FIP	23	SU	4.67	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.31	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.64	4.67	101	84
Caden Monke L 2025 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.37	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	5.37	118	84

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.