Troy Guthrie

P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.1 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKTOR	11	3	43	2.28	2.22	21.6%	4.2%	—	K 14.7% · BB 5.2% · FIP 2.95
2026	20	MIX2 levels	26	24	121	4.83	3.65	20.6%	5.3%	—	K 15.4% · BB 6.2% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	21	MLBTOR	15	15	85	4.86	4.86	13.8%	6.4%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTOR	10	10	56	4.67	4.59	16.2%	6.2%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBTOR	15	15	86	4.51	4.42	17.6%	6.0%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 86%

CompsNick Gardewine (age 21) · Brock Dykxhoorn (age 21) · J.D. Busfield (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%13.8%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%7.4%

Proj IP85

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	43	167	36	7	1	27%	3.9	14.7%	5.2%	9.4%	0.8%	2.28	2.95	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	43	167	36	7	1	27%	3.9	14.7%	5.2%	9.4%	0.8%	2.28	2.95	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	3	43	167	36	7	1	27%	3.9	21.6%	4.2%	17.4%	0.6%	2.28	2.22	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	121	510	105	27	15	92%	4.7	15.4%	6.2%	9.2%	3.8%	4.83	4.65	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	121	510	105	27	15	92%	4.7	15.4%	6.2%	9.2%	3.8%	4.83	4.65	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	121	510	105	27	15	92%	4.7	20.6%	5.3%	15.3%	2.9%	4.83	3.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TOR	15	15	85	359	50	23	11	100%	5.7	13.8%	6.4%	7.4%	3.2%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	114	483	78	30	15	100%	5.7	16.2%	6.2%	10.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.59	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	119	501	88	30	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.0%	11.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.42	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	122	513	94	30	15	100%	5.8	18.4%	5.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.32	+0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	123	520	98	30	16	100%	5.9	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.26	+0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	123	520	99	30	16	100%	5.9	19.1%	5.7%	13.3%	3.0%	4.27	4.24	+1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	121	512	98	30	16	100%	6.1	19.0%	5.8%	13.2%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	118	497	94	30	16	100%	5.9	18.9%	5.9%	13.0%	3.1%	4.32	4.36	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	112	475	89	29	16	100%	5.9	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	3.3%	4.42	4.49	+0.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	106	446	82	29	16	100%	5.9	18.3%	6.5%	11.9%	3.5%	4.57	4.67	+0.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	99	416	75	28	15	100%	6.2	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	3.7%	4.75	4.87	+0.0
2038	32	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	91	385	67	28	15	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.2%	10.3%	4.0%	4.96	5.09	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	56	236	38	15	7	100%	5.6	16.2%	6.2%	10.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.59	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	86	363	64	22	11	100%	5.7	17.6%	6.0%	11.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.42	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	101	426	78	25	13	100%	5.6	18.4%	5.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.32	+0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	109	460	87	27	14	100%	5.7	18.9%	5.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.26	+0.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	112	473	90	27	14	100%	5.9	19.1%	5.7%	13.3%	3.0%	4.27	4.24	+0.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	112	473	90	27	14	100%	5.9	19.0%	5.8%	13.2%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	110	464	88	28	15	100%	6.1	18.9%	5.9%	13.0%	3.1%	4.32	4.36	+0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	107	452	84	28	15	100%	5.9	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	3.3%	4.42	4.49	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	100	422	77	27	15	100%	5.9	18.3%	6.5%	11.9%	3.5%	4.57	4.67	+0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	94	397	71	27	15	100%	5.9	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	3.7%	4.75	4.87	+0.0
2038	32	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	87	367	64	27	15	100%	6.2	17.5%	7.2%	10.3%	4.0%	4.96	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		182	182	1075	4537	833	279	147	100%	5.9	18.4%	6.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.11	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	155	52	27	100%	5.9	18.4%	6.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		37	27	164	677	103	40	20	73%	4.4	15.2%	5.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.16	4.23	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	33	200	824	126	49	25	73%	4.4	15.2%	5.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.16	4.23	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Troy Guthrie (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	13.8%	6.4%	3.2%	—	4.44	17.4%	11.4%	354	-0.42	—	—	—
Nick Gardewine R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	21	SP-	4.24	14.4%	6.3%	2.8%	.334	3.18	24.5%	16.4%	104	-1.06	2.62	200	93
Brock Dykxhoorn R 2015 · 3.89 FIP	21	SP-	3.89	15.5%	6.8%	2.2%	.287	4.48	16.4%	8.3%	350	+0.59	3.89	459	88
J.D. Busfield R 2017 · 4.62 FIP	22	SP	4.62	12.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.293	4.82	11.5%	6.4%	68	+0.20	4.62	177	87
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	86
Tommy Parsons R 2018 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	12.6%	5.4%	4.2%	.302	5.28	18.0%	12.5%	234	+0.24	4.82	501	85
Derek Diamond R 2023 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	14.4%	6.9%	3.6%	.307	4.52	16.1%	10.5%	153	-0.21	3.38	272	85
Ryan Mason R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	10.4%	4.8%	3.3%	.321	2.93	17.5%	12.5%	142	-1.73	1.66	245	84
Starlyn Suriel R 2015 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	10.7%	7.4%	3.1%	.303	4.22	17.0%	8.0%	62	-0.65	4.22	176	84
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	84
Carson LaRue R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	16.0%	7.3%	2.1%	.283	5.03	15.4%	6.3%	224	+1.19	3.84	360	84
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	84
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	84
Pedro Barrios R 2018 · 4.31 FIP	19	SP	4.31	14.7%	6.7%	2.9%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	159	84
Austin Chrismon R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	11.6%	5.2%	3.2%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	122	84
Brad Case R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP-	3.78	12.7%	4.9%	2.1%	.316	4.91	14.8%	9.1%	204	+1.13	3.78	393	84
Adam Oller R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP-	4.86	13.3%	4.8%	4.2%	.322	4.53	17.4%	9.0%	160	-0.33	3.47	670	84
Kyle Dowdy R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	14.2%	6.3%	2.3%	.311	3.90	17.5%	8.6%	323	-0.04	2.98	606	84
Rafael Soriano R 2002 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP-	4.88	15.8%	7.4%	4.0%	.252	1.48	33.8%	28.3%	53	-3.40	1.48	620	83
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	83
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	111	18.0%	6.1%	1.24	4.50
Iván Nova ('20)	6.7	135	16.7%	6.4%	1.24	4.38
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Scott Baker ('15)	5.3	133	18.9%	5.5%	1.23	4.26
Rick Langford ('76-'86, 10 WAR*)	7.5	149	16.8%*	6.6%*	1.27*	4.48*
Jeremy Hellickson ('19)	6.3	127	17.4%	7.2%	1.30	4.13
Dick Bosman ('66-'76, 10 WAR*)	8.0	145	15.7%*	6.0%*	1.24*	4.56*