Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | ACL Padres | 17 | 2 | 19 | 106 | 23 | 21 | 0 | 12% | 1.1 | 14.8% | 24.8% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 8.53 | 4.99 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | ACL Padres | 17 | 2 | 19 | 106 | 23 | 21 | 0 | 12% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 19.8% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 8.53 | 3.99 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 58 | 262 | 70 | 43 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.4% | 21.4% | -2.1% | 0.6% | 3.39 | 4.52 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 58 | 262 | 70 | 43 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 26.7% | 16.4% | 10.3% | 0.4% | 3.39 | 3.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 24 | 0 | 32 | 148 | 45 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 22.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 5.40 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 62 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 21.0% | -2.0% | 2.7% | 6.01 | 6.01 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.0% | 21.0% | -2.0% | 2.7% | 6.01 | 6.01 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 102 | 444 | 101 | 91 | 10 | — | — | 22.8% | 20.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 5.82 | 5.67 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.0% | 21.0% | -2.0% | 2.7% | 6.01 | 5.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 59 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 19.8% | -0.2% | 2.7% | 5.83 | 5.82 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 58 | 56 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 19.1% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 5.73 | 5.74 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 56 | 53 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 18.7% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 5.72 | 5.76 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 25 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 19.8% | -0.2% | 2.7% | 5.83 | 5.82 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 35 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 19.1% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 5.73 | 5.74 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 40 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 18.7% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 5.72 | 5.76 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 118 | 0 | 124 | 524 | 104 | 100 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 19.1% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.39 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 161 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 19.1% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.39 | +0.0 | ||
| Career | — | 75 | 2 | 109 | 516 | 101 | 116 | 4 | 3% | 1.5 | 19.6% | 22.4% | -2.8% | 0.8% | 4.87 | 4.73 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 138 | 4 | 200 | 947 | 185 | 212 | 8 | 3% | 1.5 | 19.6% | 22.4% | -2.8% | 0.8% | 4.87 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Igor Gil (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.01 | 19.0% | 21.0% | 2.7% | — | 5.77 | 19.8% | 0.6% | 206 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Fabian Williamson L 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.34 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.09 | 3.46 | 154 | 90 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.96 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 101 | 85 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 20.0% | 19.6% | 2.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 136 | 84 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.08 | 4.84 | 137 | 84 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 6.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.16 | 15.3% | 17.1% | 4.0% | .275 | 4.98 | 19.5% | -8.3% | 18 | -1.18 | 4.80 | 223 | 83 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.23 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 161 | 82 |
| Chris Nunn L 2025 · 5.94 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.94 | 13.9% | 16.8% | 3.4% | .350 | 3.97 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 37 | -1.97 | 3.26 | 180 | 82 |
| Sean Keselica L 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.58 | 15.9% | 18.5% | 2.7% | .226 | 4.53 | 18.0% | 3.5% | 52 | -1.05 | 2.77 | 235 | 81 |
| John Kilichowski L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 17.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 115 | 80 |
| Davis Schwab L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 20.3% | 18.7% | 3.8% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 114 | 80 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.2% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 107 | 80 |
| Caden Monke L 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.28 | 19.0% | 19.3% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.73 | 24.7% | 3.3% | 34 | -1.55 | 3.73 | 152 | 80 |
| Yoan Aybar L 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.64 | 20.9% | 19.7% | 3.3% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 166 | 78 |
| Joseph Menefee L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.10 | 23.3% | 17.4% | 3.2% | .268 | 6.74 | 19.4% | -8.5% | 13 | +1.64 | 3.16 | 146 | 78 |
| Juan Pichardo L 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.95 | 17.7% | 17.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.13 | 103 | 78 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.23 | 14.8% | 20.2% | 1.5% | .243 | 4.40 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 81 | -0.83 | 1.71 | 206 | 77 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.91 | 15.0% | 17.6% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.23 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.68 | 3.88 | 269 | 77 |
| Brandon Neeck L 2026 · 6.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.46 | 16.8% | 16.7% | 4.8% | .298 | 3.88 | 28.8% | 9.1% | 38 | -2.58 | 3.74 | 171 | 76 |
| Ben Harris L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.17 | 21.6% | 23.6% | 1.6% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 183 | 75 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 19.6% | 19.7% | 1.07 | 5.82 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |