Chris Kean

P Somerset Patriots

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #707

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	1	33	1.08	1.30	35.8%	4.1%	—	K 25.2% · BB 5.0% · FIP 2.20
2025	23	A+NYY	33	0	41	3.48	3.73	21.5%	9.3%	—	K 16.6% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.70
2026	24	MIX2 levels	48	0	63	4.00	3.88	28.5%	5.1%	—	K 23.7% · BB 5.0% · FIP 4.69
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	67	0	70	4.33	4.33	22.4%	5.7%	0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBNYY	30	0	31	4.31	4.30	22.7%	6.0%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYY	42	0	44	4.33	4.34	22.8%	6.3%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Command60FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsPreston Claiborne (age 25) · James Farris (age 25) · Shay Schanaman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%22.4%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%16.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4045

CMD5060

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	1	33	123	44	5	1	4%	1.3	25.2%	5.0%	20.2%	1.1%	1.08	2.20	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	1	33	123	44	5	1	4%	1.3	25.2%	5.0%	20.2%	1.1%	1.08	2.20	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	1	33	123	44	5	1	4%	1.3	35.8%	4.1%	31.7%	0.8%	1.08	1.30	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	33	0	41	172	37	16	4	0%	1.3	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	3.0%	3.48	4.70	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	33	0	41	172	37	16	4	0%	1.3	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	3.0%	3.48	4.70	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	33	0	41	172	37	16	4	0%	1.3	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.3%	3.48	3.73	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	63	256	73	13	12	0%	1.3	23.7%	5.0%	18.7%	5.4%	4.00	4.69	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	63	256	73	13	12	0%	1.3	23.7%	5.0%	18.7%	5.4%	4.00	4.69	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	63	256	73	13	12	0%	1.3	28.5%	5.1%	23.4%	4.7%	4.00	3.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	67	0	70	296	66	17	11	0%	1.0	22.4%	5.7%	16.7%	3.7%	4.33	4.33	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	67	0	70	296	67	18	11	0%	1.0	22.7%	6.0%	16.7%	3.6%	4.31	4.30	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	66	0	69	291	66	18	11	0%	1.0	22.8%	6.3%	16.4%	3.6%	4.33	4.34	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	64	0	67	282	64	19	10	0%	1.0	22.7%	6.6%	16.0%	3.7%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	61	0	64	270	61	19	10	0%	1.0	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	3.8%	4.49	4.55	0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	30	0	31	131	30	8	5	0%	1.0	22.7%	6.0%	16.7%	3.6%	4.31	4.30	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	42	0	44	186	42	12	7	0%	1.0	22.8%	6.3%	16.4%	3.6%	4.33	4.34	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	49	0	51	215	49	14	8	0%	1.0	22.7%	6.6%	16.0%	3.7%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	52	220	49	15	8	0%	1.0	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	3.8%	4.49	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	169	49	28	0%	1.0	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	3.7%	4.39	4.04	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	55	32	0%	1.1	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	3.7%	4.39	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		106	1	138	551	120	37	20	1%	1.3	21.8%	6.8%	15.0%	3.7%	3.14	4.14	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	1	200	800	174	54	29	1%	1.3	21.8%	6.8%	15.0%	3.7%	3.14	4.14	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Kean (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	22.4%	5.7%	3.7%	—	4.35	22.7%	16.4%	206	+0.02	—	—	—
Preston Claiborne R 2013 · 3.72 FIP	25	SU	3.72	19.6%	4.7%	3.1%	.284	3.51	20.5%	13.2%	66	-0.21	3.07	155	89
James Farris R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	25	SU	3.77	24.4%	6.6%	3.5%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	170	87
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	87
Trey Cobb R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	24	SU	4.45	18.3%	4.9%	4.1%	.317	6.93	13.4%	3.6%	40	+2.48	3.94	192	85
Yaya Chentouf R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	25	SU	4.18	21.7%	6.8%	3.7%	.282	5.13	13.0%	-1.8%	29	+0.95	3.41	225	85
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	85
Kelly Austin R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.9%	5.6%	4.4%	.273	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	100	+0.40	4.22	141	85
Joe Navilhon R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	24.1%	5.5%	2.9%	.333	3.13	22.5%	15.1%	110	-0.23	2.25	273	85
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	85
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	84
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	84
Troy Neiman R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	21.1%	7.6%	4.7%	.289	4.03	18.1%	9.8%	64	-0.83	4.03	199	84
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	83
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	83
Deolis Guerra R 2015 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	23.5%	4.9%	3.2%	.291	3.65	21.9%	15.7%	179	+0.17	2.53	364	83
Colton Hock R 2021 · 3.77 FIP	25	SU	3.77	21.3%	7.2%	2.8%	.304	3.83	17.7%	11.7%	60	+0.06	3.29	253	82
Max Alba R 2024 · 4.52 FIP	25	SU	4.52	21.2%	4.0%	4.9%	.253	5.52	15.4%	7.6%	191	+1.00	4.47	303	82
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	82
Cory Wade R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	18.5%	4.4%	2.5%	.215	3.84	17.4%	12.0%	67	+0.36	3.48	178	82
Shawn Kelley R 2009 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	21.5%	4.2%	4.7%	.271	3.76	23.5%	17.3%	69	-0.64	2.23	452	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	22.6%	6.3%	1.42	4.37
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Erik Swanson ('25)	1.3	53	25.7%	6.8%	1.66	4.20
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*