Carlos Brito (P, FCL Orioles) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Carlos Brito P FCL Orioles

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%20.7%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	7	3	21	81	20	9	1	43%	3.0	16.8%	13.9%	2.9%	2.0%	0.86	4.56	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	7	3	21	81	20	9	1	43%	3.0	16.8%	13.9%	2.9%	2.0%	0.86	4.56	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	7	3	21	81	20	9	1	43%	3.0	24.7%	11.1%	13.6%	1.2%	0.86	3.10	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	17	0	23	123	19	17	3	0%	1.4	10.5%	17.3%	-6.8%	3.4%	8.49	6.28	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	17	0	23	123	19	17	3	0%	1.4	10.5%	17.3%	-6.8%	3.4%	8.49	6.28	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	17	0	23	123	19	17	3	0%	1.4	15.4%	13.8%	1.6%	2.4%	8.49	5.33	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	3.0%	5.13	5.13	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	20	0	22	91	20	11	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.92	4.84	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.92	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	8	5	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.92	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	109	22	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.92	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		24	3	44	204	27	32	6	12%	1.8	13.0%	15.9%	-2.9%	2.9%	4.87	5.60	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	14	200	920	120	147	26	12%	1.8	13.0%	15.9%	-2.9%	2.9%	4.87	5.60	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Brito (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	20.7%	13.8%	3.0%	—	4.84	21.5%	9.3%	22	-0.29	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	89
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	87
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	86
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	83
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	83
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	83
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	83
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	83
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	83