Christian Rodriguez

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	17	3	51	3.16	4.17	25.2%	15.4%	—	K 17.4% · BB 18.9% · FIP 5.71
2025	20	MIX2 levels	28	1	41	4.20	3.37	22.3%	16.8%	—	K 15.7% · BB 20.3% · FIP 4.34
2026	21	ANYM	32	4	77	4.66	3.64	23.5%	9.7%	—	K 17.4% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.72
2027PROJ	22	MLBNYM	43	0	45	5.21	5.21	18.3%	13.4%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBNYM	33	0	35	4.97	4.86	20.0%	11.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBNYM	50	0	52	4.76	4.65	20.9%	10.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsHayden Snelsire (age 23) · Junior Rincon (age 23) · Jhonny Polanco (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%18.3%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	0	14	70	16	12	1	0%	1.4	15.5%	21.4%	-5.9%	1.8%	5.14	5.51	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	10	0	14	70	16	12	1	0%	1.4	22.9%	17.1%	5.7%	1.4%	5.14	4.31	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	51	234	59	36	5	18%	3.0	17.4%	18.9%	-1.5%	3.1%	3.16	5.71	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	51	234	59	36	5	18%	3.0	17.4%	18.9%	-1.5%	3.1%	3.16	5.71	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	3	51	234	59	36	5	18%	3.0	25.2%	15.4%	9.8%	2.1%	3.16	4.17	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	41	184	41	31	0	4%	1.5	15.7%	20.3%	-4.6%	0.0%	4.20	4.34	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	41	184	41	31	0	4%	1.5	15.7%	20.3%	-4.6%	0.0%	4.20	4.34	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	1	41	184	41	31	0	4%	1.5	22.3%	16.8%	5.4%	0.0%	4.20	3.37	—
2026	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	32	4	77	349	82	34	8	12%	2.4	17.4%	11.5%	5.9%	3.0%	4.66	4.72	—
2026	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	32	4	77	349	82	34	8	12%	2.4	17.4%	11.5%	5.9%	3.0%	4.66	4.72	—
2026	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	32	4	77	349	82	34	8	12%	2.4	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	2.3%	4.66	3.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	NYM	43	0	45	190	35	25	5	0%	1.0	18.3%	13.4%	5.0%	2.9%	5.21	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	69	0	72	305	61	36	9	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.8%	8.1%	2.9%	4.97	4.86	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	70	0	74	312	65	34	9	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.9%	10.1%	2.8%	4.76	4.65	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	71	0	75	316	68	32	9	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	2.8%	4.61	4.52	+0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	71	0	75	316	68	32	9	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.8%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	70	0	74	312	67	32	9	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.53	+0.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	68	0	72	302	65	31	9	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.4%	11.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.62	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	65	0	68	289	61	31	9	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.75	-0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	61	0	64	271	57	30	9	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	3.3%	4.83	4.93	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	33	0	35	148	29	17	4	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.8%	8.1%	2.9%	4.97	4.86	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	50	0	52	220	46	24	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.9%	10.1%	2.8%	4.76	4.65	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	58	0	61	258	55	26	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	2.8%	4.61	4.52	+0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	62	0	65	274	59	28	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.8%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	64	0	67	283	61	29	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.53	+0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	63	0	66	279	60	29	8	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.4%	11.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.62	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	61	0	64	270	58	29	8	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.75	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	57	0	60	253	53	28	8	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	3.3%	4.83	4.93	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		447	0	470	1983	421	210	59	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	3.0%	4.67	4.28	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	89	25	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	3.0%	4.67	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		87	8	183	837	141	137	19	9%	2.1	16.9%	16.3%	0.5%	2.3%	4.17	4.98	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	9	200	913	154	149	21	9%	2.1	16.9%	16.3%	0.5%	2.3%	4.17	4.98	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	18.3%	13.4%	2.9%	—	4.67	20.8%	9.8%	221	-0.54	—	—	—
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	92
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	90
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	89
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	89
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.17	528	88
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	87
Miguel Guerrero R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	22	SU	5.35	17.0%	13.9%	3.5%	.324	4.56	18.1%	7.8%	57	-0.79	4.56	171	87
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	87
Mario Alcantara R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SU	4.83	16.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.292	4.64	17.0%	0.9%	97	-0.19	4.36	171	87
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	86
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	86
Joel Cesar R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	22	SU	4.30	16.3%	12.0%	1.9%	.267	5.21	18.0%	9.9%	38	+0.91	4.30	127	86
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	86
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	86
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	86
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	86
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	85
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	85
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	85
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	69	21.0%	10.8%	1.14	4.73
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Joe Boever ('85-'96, 4 WAR*)	3.8	84	20.9%*	10.0%*	1.14*	4.15*