Theo Hardy

SS Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 S/R 6'1" / 185 lbs AA HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	AATEX	39	.222/.282/.278	0	1	30	—	.216/.256/.270
2025	23	A+TEX	127	.192/.355/.232	0	6	32	—	.167/.274/.204
2026	24	AATEX	80	.174/.278/.246	1	3	20	—	.155/.241/.225
2026	24	A+TEX	59	.255/.397/.468	2	2	78	—	.216/.310/.412
2027PROJ2% MLB	25	MLBTEX	4	.184/.263/.269	0	0	52	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	26	MLBTEX	92	.188/.267/.280	1	2	56	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed71

BB%47

Chase%27

Z-Con%17

ISO12

Whiff%11

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJack Conley (age 25) · Lucas Dunn (age 25) · Jackson Cluff (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .263 / .269

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP262

ISO81

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 21 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT21

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	16	13	2	1	1	0	2	4	1	0	0	154	312	385	697	231	222	25	12	314	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	36	29	6	1	0	1	6	9	0	2	0	207	343	345	688	138	250	25	17	310	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	39	36	8	2	0	0	3	8	0	1	1	222	282	278	560	56	286	21	8	259	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	127	99	19	2	1	0	21	33	4	6	2	192	355	232	587	40	279	26	17	285	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	35	29	6	1	1	0	4	6	1	1	0	207	324	310	634	103	261	17	11	287	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	80	69	12	2	0	1	8	28	2	3	0	174	278	246	525	72	275	35	10	248	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	59	47	12	2	1	2	9	16	2	2	0	255	397	468	865	213	345	27	15	380	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	16	14	2	1	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	143	250	357	607	214	189	31	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	36	31	5	1	0	1	4	12	0	2	0	161	257	290	547	129	207	33	11	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	39	37	8	2	0	0	2	10	0	1	1	216	256	270	527	54	267	26	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	127	108	18	2	1	0	12	42	4	6	2	167	274	204	478	37	242	33	9	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	35	30	6	1	1	0	3	7	1	1	0	200	294	300	594	100	248	20	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	80	71	11	2	0	1	6	34	2	3	0	155	241	225	466	70	260	42	8	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	59	51	11	2	1	2	5	21	2	2	0	216	310	412	722	196	284	36	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	52	45	7	2	1	1	5	17	1	2	0	156	255	311	566	156	214	33	10	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	52	42	8	2	1	1	8	13	1	2	0	190	333	357	690	167	241	25	15	312	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	166	145	25	4	1	0	14	52	4	7	3	172	264	214	478	41	263	31	8	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	166	135	27	4	1	0	24	41	4	7	3	200	337	244	582	44	281	25	14	279	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	174	152	26	4	2	2	14	62	5	6	0	171	263	263	526	92	273	36	8	238	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	174	145	30	5	2	3	21	50	5	6	0	207	327	331	659	124	293	29	12	301	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	52	46	7	2	1	1	5	17	1	2	0	152	255	304	559	152	201	33	10	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	166	147	25	4	1	0	14	52	4	7	3	170	264	211	475	41	248	31	8	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	174	153	26	4	2	2	14	62	5	6	0	170	263	261	525	92	266	36	8	238	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	52	46	7	2	1	1	5	17	1	2	0	152	255	304	559	152	201	33	10	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	166	147	25	4	1	0	14	52	4	7	3	170	264	211	475	41	248	31	8	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	174	153	26	4	2	2	14	62	5	6	0	170	263	261	525	92	266	36	8	238	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	2%	224	201	36	7	1	2	18	68	3	5	1	184	263	267	530	83	263	30	8	245	52	-13	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	184	263	269	532	84	262	25	0	246	52	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	31%	297	267	51	10	2	4	24	90	4	6	1	188	267	279	545	91	265	30	8	251	56	-16	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	31%	92	84	16	3	1	1	7	28	1	2	0	188	267	280	547	92	264	30	8	252	56	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	92	84	16	3	1	1	7	28	1	2	0	190	261	286	547	95	273	30	8	252	48	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	113	21	7	7	49	198	7	14	0	191	260	285	545	94	273	30	8	252	48	-34	+3	+0	+7	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	882	782	141	26	7	9	72	280	17	25	5	180	264	266	530	86	265	32	8	240	48	-27	+1	+0	+5	+11	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	104	19	5	7	53	206	13	18	4	181	265	267	532	87	264	32	8	240	48	-35	+2	+0	+7	+14	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Theo Hardy (OGILVIE)	25	21	34	54	51	183/261/265	83	263	2	4	31%	8%	52	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	176/239/272	96	267	8	7	36%	7%	45	-2.7	203/269/313	110	288	10	8	31%	7%	65	-1.2	192/265/298	106	267	9	5	30%	8%	56	-0.9
✕Lucas Dunn 2024 · AAA	25	40→39	40	50	44	191/274/286	94	288	8	13	34%	9%	61	-1.5	191/261/280	89	295	8	11	35%	8%	55	-2.0	147/217/217	70	238	6	10	38%	7%	23	-1.8
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	40→30	40→45	49→60	38	193/260/279	86	281	7	12	32%	5%	55	-2.0	179/254/280	101	276	9	16	36%	8%	53	-2.1	178/268/298	120	261	12	28	34%	10%	60	-0.9
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	39→38	41→40	48→50	41	192/258/288	96	263	8	14	29%	6%	55	-1.9	207/273/319	112	287	10	14	30%	7%	68	-1.0	180/253/308	127	261	11	20	33%	6%	55	-0.4
✕Luis Mendez 2018 · AA	25	43	37→30	47→50	45	206/268/278	72	276	5	12	26%	7%	56	-1.9	213/271/312	99	288	9	10	28%	7%	65	-1.2	202/258/285	83	268	8	7	27%	6%	51	-1.0
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	40	39→45	53→55	40	192/250/279	87	274	5	16	31%	6%	50	-2.3	189/266/297	108	285	10	16	35%	8%	61	-1.5	173/257/287	114	273	12	16	38%	8%	54	-1.2
✕Estarlin De Los Santos 2012 · AA	25	42	36→40	48→55	38	199/243/270	71	280	3	13	29%	5%	44	-2.8	205/252/278	73	273	5	11	26%	5%	50	-2.3	200/244/251	51	260	4	10	23%	4%	37	-1.7
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	38→40	45→40	40	181/259/253	72	263	5	5	31%	6%	49	-2.4	196/275/282	86	273	7	6	29%	7%	61	-1.5	149/252/214	66	204	4	0	27%	8%	36	-0.7
✕Chris Givin 2022 · AA	25	38	38→30	50→45	43	187/248/261	74	257	6	6	29%	7%	45	-2.7	202/264/278	76	269	6	7	25%	7%	55	-1.9	194/260/252	58	250	4	5	23%	7%	45	-1.3
✕J.T. Arruda 2022 · A	24	38→42	38→40	53→55	43	184/250/264	80	271	5	13	32%	8%	47	-2.6	201/277/290	89	292	6	20	30%	9%	63	-1.4	207/270/292	85	284	7	22	28%	7%	58	-1.0
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2023 · AAA	25	44	41→40	53→50	48	212/286/311	99	293	8	12	29%	9%	71	-0.8	209/291/309	100	305	8	15	31%	10%	72	-0.7	197/287/288	91	290	8	17	32%	11%	64	-0.8
✕Jack Winkler 2024 · AA	25	43→41	39→40	50→55	44	208/271/297	89	274	7	14	26%	7%	61	-1.5	188/250/281	93	257	9	22	29%	6%	51	-2.3	172/236/263	91	235	10	24	30%	6%	39	-2.2
✕Eric Yang 2023 · AAA	25	39	39→40	47→40	44	188/270/273	85	279	6	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	199/274/274	75	301	5	6	33%	8%	59	-1.7	179/263/233	55	281	4	1	35%	9%	43	-0.6
✕Stephen Perez 2016 · AA	25	42→48	36→30	50	46	197/258/263	66	263	3	13	25%	7%	49	-2.4	205/272/272	67	276	5	14	25%	8%	57	-1.8	202/276/258	55	273	4	15	26%	8%	54	-0.9
✕Tyler Friis 2021 · AA	25	44	39→40	47→50	51	211/279/299	88	257	6	12	20%	8%	65	-1.2	224/280/312	88	292	5	17	24%	7%	68	-1.0	239/286/302	63	308	0	30	21%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Deiner Lopez 2019 · AAA	25	44	40	49→50	36	214/249/305	91	303	7	13	31%	4%	55	-2.0	190/230/275	85	308	6	11	38%	5%	40	-3.0	123/156/173	49	224	2	11	44%	4%	-14	-2.3
✕Max Burt 2022 · AAA	25	41→35	42→45	49→55	37	205/252/307	102	288	10	9	32%	5%	57	-1.8	192/247/306	114	275	13	21	34%	6%	55	-1.9	169/229/255	86	251	9	26	34%	5%	35	-1.6
✕Sahid Valenzuela 2023 · AA	25	39	39→30	43→45	40	193/245/277	84	259	7	5	28%	5%	47	-2.5	201/244/259	58	262	4	6	23%	5%	42	-2.9	196/238/233	38	250	2	6	22%	4%	31	-1.9
✕Taber Lee 2007 · AAA	26	43	39→40	50	44	207/267/294	87	270	7	10	25%	6%	59	-1.6	217/282/293	76	273	5	15	21%	7%	65	-1.2	217/293/251	34	265	0	21	16%	9%	57	-0.7
✕Michael De La Cruz 2018 · AA	25	44→43	38→40	45→50	43	212/263/295	83	280	5	7	26%	6%	57	-1.8	220/285/331	111	294	8	6	26%	8%	74	-0.5	213/295/355	142	265	15	2	25%	10%	82	+0.0