Joe Vogatsky

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	37	0	70	4.52	3.83	25.5%	11.3%	—	K 19.0% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.19
2026	24	MIX2 levels	33	1	80	4.97	3.75	25.5%	8.6%	—	K 20.2% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.66
2027PROJ	25	MLBBOS	67	0	70	5.23	5.23	18.6%	12.4%	-0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBBOS	30	0	31	5.12	5.12	19.3%	12.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBOS	43	0	45	5.08	5.09	19.6%	11.9%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsStephen Johnson (age 25) · Conor Steinbaugh (age 25) · Juan Paniagua (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%18.6%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	70	310	79	35	8	0%	1.9	19.0%	13.3%	5.7%	3.7%	4.52	5.19	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	70	310	79	35	8	0%	1.9	19.0%	13.3%	5.7%	3.7%	4.52	5.19	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	70	310	79	35	8	0%	1.9	25.5%	11.3%	14.2%	2.6%	4.52	3.83	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	80	361	92	31	11	3%	2.4	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.7%	4.97	4.66	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	80	361	92	31	11	3%	2.4	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	3.7%	4.97	4.66	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	80	361	92	31	11	3%	2.4	25.5%	8.6%	16.9%	3.0%	4.97	3.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	67	0	70	296	55	37	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.4%	6.2%	3.2%	5.23	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	68	0	72	303	58	37	10	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.1%	7.2%	3.2%	5.12	5.12	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	67	0	71	298	58	36	10	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.9%	7.6%	3.2%	5.08	5.09	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	65	0	68	289	57	35	10	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.9%	7.7%	3.3%	5.10	5.14	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	62	0	65	276	54	33	9	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.1%	7.4%	3.4%	5.18	5.25	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	59	0	62	260	50	32	9	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.4%	6.7%	3.6%	5.33	5.43	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	30	0	31	131	25	16	4	0%	1.0	19.3%	12.1%	7.2%	3.2%	5.12	5.12	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	43	0	45	190	37	23	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.9%	7.6%	3.2%	5.08	5.09	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	52	220	43	26	7	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.9%	7.7%	3.3%	5.10	5.14	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	53	224	44	27	8	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.1%	7.4%	3.4%	5.18	5.25	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	53	224	43	28	8	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.4%	6.7%	3.6%	5.33	5.43	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		223	0	234	988	192	120	33	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.1%	7.3%	3.4%	5.17	4.84	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	103	28	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.1%	7.3%	3.4%	5.17	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		70	1	149	671	132	76	25	1%	2.1	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	3.7%	4.76	4.90	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	1	200	899	176	101	33	1%	2.1	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	3.7%	4.76	4.90	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Vogatsky (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	18.6%	12.4%	3.2%	—	5.12	19.5%	7.5%	211	-0.11	—	—	—
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	88
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	88
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	88
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	86
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	86
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	86
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	84
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	84
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	84
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	83
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	83
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	83
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	83
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	83
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	68	19.3%	12.2%	1.28	5.17
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*