Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.1% | 6.2% | 21.9% | 6.2% | 7.11 | 4.95 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.1% | 6.2% | 21.9% | 6.2% | 7.11 | 5.31 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 22 | 1 | 36 | 152 | 35 | 11 | 2 | 5% | 1.6 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 1.0% | 4.04 | 3.19 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 22 | 1 | 36 | 152 | 35 | 11 | 2 | 5% | 1.6 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 15.8% | 1.3% | 4.04 | 2.79 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 60 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 1.9% | 2.98 | 3.55 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 60 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.5% | 8.0% | 18.6% | 1.8% | 2.98 | 2.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 30 | 1 | 35 | 151 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 3% | 1.2 | 16.1% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 2.55 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 83 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 125 | 531 | 112 | 49 | 14 | — | — | 21.2% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 21.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.90 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 87 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 88 | 34 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.16 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 86 | 34 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 83 | 0 | 87 | 367 | 83 | 33 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 61 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 68 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 71 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 249 | 0 | 261 | 1103 | 250 | 99 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 3.84 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 76 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 2 | 132 | 561 | 107 | 50 | 12 | 2% | 1.4 | 19.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 2.2% | 3.35 | 3.82 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 3 | 200 | 852 | 163 | 76 | 19 | 2% | 1.4 | 19.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 2.2% | 3.35 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Simon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.19 | 22.7% | 13.8% | 272 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 90 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 88 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 87 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 87 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.44 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | .264 | 3.56 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.88 | 3.56 | 155 | 86 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.33 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .293 | 4.70 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.37 | 3.33 | 258 | 86 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 86 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.38 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 20 | +0.10 | 4.28 | 195 | 86 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 86 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 86 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 86 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .332 | 5.00 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.13 | 3.87 | 148 | 86 |
| Colton Murray R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 1.4% | .251 | 4.10 | 21.4% | 12.3% | 109 | +0.67 | 3.43 | 187 | 85 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 85 |
| Héctor Neris R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .298 | 3.09 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -1.00 | 1.97 | 682 | 85 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 85 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 85 |
| Josh Martin R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 84 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.43 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 50 | -0.34 | 2.79 | 164 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 90 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 1.06 | 4.23 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |