Aidan Longwell

1B Hartford Yard Goats

Age 25 L/L 6'0" / 205 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	A+COL	516	.274/.350/.465	15	5	67	—	.209/.267/.356
2026	24	AACOL	385	.249/.302/.407	10	1	60	—	.217/.260/.344
2027PROJ2% MLB	25	MLBCOL	6	.229/.277/.373	0	0	71	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	26	MLBCOL	109	.231/.281/.383	3	1	75	-0.3
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBCOL	160	.231/.282/.382	4	2	75	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Z-Con%65

Whiff%62

K%58

ISO56

wRC+35

wOBA34

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJosh Lester (age 25) · Carson Taylor (age 25) · Bill Rhinehart (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .277 / .373

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%5

BABIP294

ISO131

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	47	44	13	2	0	0	3	10	0	0	1	295	340	341	681	45	382	21	6	311	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	83	71	26	8	0	0	9	9	2	4	0	366	451	479	930	113	413	11	11	413	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	283	240	75	11	2	4	32	38	7	3	3	312	409	425	834	112	351	13	11	373	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Spokane Indians	—	516	452	124	35	3	15	48	99	5	5	2	274	350	465	814	190	315	19	9	354	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	385	354	88	24	1	10	20	89	7	1	1	249	302	407	709	158	301	23	5	312	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	47	45	11	2	0	0	2	14	0	0	1	244	277	289	565	44	353	30	4	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	83	75	21	6	0	0	5	13	2	4	0	280	341	360	701	80	325	16	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	283	251	65	8	2	3	21	51	7	3	3	259	333	343	676	84	303	18	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	516	469	98	27	3	12	32	133	5	5	2	209	267	356	623	147	248	26	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	385	360	78	20	1	8	14	109	7	1	1	217	260	344	604	128	274	28	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	130	119	31	7	0	0	8	27	2	4	1	261	318	319	637	59	333	21	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	130	115	39	10	0	0	12	19	2	4	1	339	411	426	837	87	402	15	9	376	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	283	251	65	8	2	3	21	51	7	3	3	259	333	343	676	84	308	18	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	283	240	75	11	2	4	32	38	7	3	3	312	409	425	834	112	351	13	11	373	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	516	469	98	27	3	12	32	133	5	5	2	209	267	356	623	147	259	26	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	—	516	452	124	35	3	15	48	99	5	5	2	274	350	465	814	190	315	19	9	354	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	385	360	78	20	1	8	14	109	7	1	1	217	260	344	604	128	283	28	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	—	385	354	88	24	1	10	20	89	7	1	1	249	302	407	709	158	301	23	5	312	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	130	119	31	7	0	0	8	27	2	4	1	261	318	319	637	59	335	21	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	283	253	65	8	2	3	21	51	7	3	3	257	333	340	673	83	303	18	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	516	474	98	27	3	12	32	133	5	5	2	207	267	352	619	146	248	26	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	385	361	78	20	1	8	14	109	7	1	1	216	260	343	603	127	274	28	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	283	253	65	8	2	3	21	51	7	3	3	257	333	340	673	83	303	18	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	516	474	98	27	3	12	32	133	5	5	2	207	267	352	619	146	248	26	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	385	361	78	20	1	8	14	109	7	1	1	216	260	343	603	127	274	28	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	2%	380	353	78	19	2	8	19	103	5	3	1	218	267	348	614	130	281	27	5	273	71	-13	+0	+0	-7	+8	-0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	229	277	373	651	145	294	33	0	288	71	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	31%	353	328	71	17	1	8	18	95	4	3	1	220	270	356	627	136	281	27	5	279	75	-11	+0	+0	-6	+8	-0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	42%	380	352	77	18	1	9	21	102	4	4	2	220	272	356	628	136	281	27	6	279	75	-11	+0	+0	-7	+8	-1.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	31%	109	101	24	6	1	3	6	29	1	1	0	231	281	383	664	151	295	27	6	294	75	-3	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	42%	160	148	34	8	1	4	9	43	2	2	1	231	282	382	665	151	294	27	6	294	75	-5	+0	+0	-3	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	269	249	58	14	2	7	15	72	3	3	1	233	285	390	674	157	297	27	6	294	72	-8	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	141	34	5	17	36	174	7	7	2	234	285	392	677	158	298	27	6	294	72	-19	+0	+0	-12	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2367	2176	485	113	9	47	130	604	33	23	11	223	277	348	625	125	283	26	5	275	72	-33	+0	+0	-19	+23	-2.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	133	31	2	13	36	166	9	6	3	222	277	346	623	124	282	26	6	275	72	-20	+0	+0	-12	+14	-1.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#2Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#3Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	276	6	3	221	269	357	-5	-2	-0.5	-0.3
/162	664	15	6	-11.9	-3.6	-1.3	pk7: 0
#4Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1
#5Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3
#6Fritz Mollwitz'13-'19 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,904 PA	2.9	1,904	1	70	242*	287*	361*	-34	-8	-5.1	-5.1
/162	664	0	24	-11.8	-2.8	-1.8	pk7: -5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aidan Longwell (OGILVIE)	25	50	50	45	40	216/265/345	129	281	7	3	27%	5%	71	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Josh Lester 2019 · AA	25	43→44	47→55	47→40	41	219/268/353	135	279	15	3	27%	6%	74	-0.6	206/257/355	149	271	18	3	30%	6%	70	-0.8	195/241/366	171	246	22	4	31%	5%	65	-1.0
✕Carson Taylor 2024 · AA	25	43→49	43→45	48→40	46	216/280/322	106	281	12	3	27%	8%	71	-0.8	225/303/345	120	295	13	5	26%	9%	85	+0.2	221/306/337	116	289	13	3	26%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Bill Rhinehart 2010 · AA	25	44→46	46→55	48→40	41	222/262/352	130	275	14	5	25%	5%	71	-0.8	217/268/377	160	264	19	4	25%	6%	80	-0.2	210/266/377	167	248	21	2	25%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Aaron Baker 2013 · AA	25	43→49	49→50	44→40	40	219/272/368	150	286	17	5	29%	6%	79	-0.2	211/262/334	123	287	11	6	29%	6%	67	-1.1	192/239/302	110	262	8	2	29%	6%	48	-1.2
✕Orlando Martinez 2023 · AAA	25	46→48	44→50	45→50	40	226/270/347	121	302	11	9	29%	6%	72	-0.7	226/278/339	113	283	10	8	23%	7%	74	-0.6	223/280/330	107	273	9	7	21%	7%	71	-0.5
✕Bligh Madris 2021 · AA	25	45→48	42→50	42→50	42	219/267/325	106	286	10	5	26%	6%	66	-1.1	226/287/348	122	294	11	7	25%	7%	79	-0.2	219/286/346	126	287	12	8	26%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Viosergy Rosa 2015 · AA	25	45→49	46→45	46→30	44	221/287/346	125	295	13	2	29%	8%	80	-0.2	207/276/317	110	286	11	2	29%	8%	69	-0.9	200/261/318	118	281	13	0	32%	7%	62	-1.0
✕Luis Liberato 2021 · AA	25	44→50	47→50	45→50	42	222/269/351	129	282	15	8	27%	6%	73	-0.6	226/285/365	139	309	14	8	29%	8%	82	+0.0	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Samir Dueñez 2021 · AAA	25	40→50	43→45	47→50	41	202/247/307	105	260	11	5	27%	6%	55	-1.9	208/264/335	127	301	15	8	34%	7%	68	-1.0	162/221/281	119	232	18	3	38%	6%	36	-0.8
✕Frankie Tostado 2023 · AA	25	47→42	49→50	46→40	38	238/274/380	142	306	17	5	28%	4%	82	-0.0	223/268/341	118	271	13	6	22%	6%	71	-0.8	209/256/312	103	245	12	3	20%	6%	57	-1.5
✕Chad Spanberger 2021 · AA	25	41→42	48→55	47→45	40	214/264/356	143	277	17	8	29%	6%	74	-0.6	196/253/328	132	305	15	7	39%	6%	63	-1.4	157/217/287	130	243	17	3	42%	6%	38	-1.7
✕Danny Ortiz 2015 · AAA	25	48→51	46→55	43→45	38	239/266/372	133	289	12	4	22%	3%	76	-0.4	226/255/378	152	268	17	6	23%	4%	74	-0.5	219/257/390	171	257	23	2	25%	4%	78	-0.2
✕Stefan Welch 2014 · AA	25	42→43	44→45	45→40	44	211/277/327	117	279	13	5	28%	7%	72	-0.7	204/279/316	112	284	11	5	30%	8%	70	-0.8	180/264/285	106	254	10	1	31%	8%	57	-1.2
✕Michael Bertram 2010 · AA	26	46→49	47→50	48→40	40	231/267/371	141	285	14	4	24%	4%	77	-0.3	218/267/338	120	296	11	5	29%	5%	70	-0.9	208/261/318	110	289	10	4	30%	5%	61	-1.1
✕Roger Kieschnick 2012 · AA	25	44→46	47→55	48→45	37	221/260/356	134	295	14	9	30%	5%	71	-0.8	219/269/372	153	303	16	6	32%	6%	78	-0.3	209/261/366	156	287	17	4	32%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Oscar Colás 2024 · MLB	25	47→52	47→45	43→45	39	238/280/369	132	309	15	6	28%	5%	82	-0.0	207/261/327	120	276	13	9	29%	6%	65	-1.2	188/247/302	113	250	12	9	29%	7%	53	-1.6
✕Ron Davenport 2007 · AA	25	47→45	47→50	43→40	41	237/271/376	139	276	15	4	20%	4%	80	-0.2	231/271/352	121	268	10	5	18%	5%	74	-0.5	235/271/348	113	266	6	1	14%	4%	69	-0.5
✕Ronnie Mitchell 2016 · A	25	44→45	47→50	43→40	43	220/274/362	142	288	14	5	28%	7%	78	-0.3	227/280/342	115	292	10	6	24%	7%	76	-0.4	233/285/326	93	286	8	5	20%	7%	71	-0.4
✕Conner Capel 2022 · AAA	25	43→48	47→45	47→55	44	220/275/354	133	275	15	10	26%	7%	76	-0.4	225/297/351	126	282	13	19	24%	9%	84	+0.2	216/295/337	121	272	12	22	24%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Aldrem Corredor 2022 · AA	26	45→54	43→45	46→40	41	221/269/328	107	292	10	4	28%	6%	68	-1.0	219/280/328	109	288	12	4	27%	7%	72	-0.7	210/275/307	97	271	13	0	27%	8%	64	-1.0

Aidan Longwell

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps